NFL Predictions Week 5: Odds, Predictions and Advice for Ideal Underdogs

Bettors who seek out underdogs each week of the NFL season have an increasingly harder time as the season progresses. 

This feels especially true going into Week 5 after the week prior didn't feature much in the way of notable upsets. Where teams like Cleveland and visitors had generally fared better in the opening three weeks, things started shifting back to normal. 

Part of this is oddsmakers adjusting to the new normal, of course. Contenders and pretenders are starting to emerge, and those breakout offensive performances are starting to come back down to earth as defenses adjust (the lone exception seems to be Patrick Mahomes). 

In an effort to help level the playing field for bettors again, here is a look at the Week 5 slate and some worthwhile underdogs. 

Week 5 NFL Odds

Indianapolis at New England (-10) | O/U 51.5

Miami at Cincinnati (-6) | O/U 50

Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-4) | O/U 

Baltimore (-3) at Cleveland | O/U 47

Denver at N.Y. Jets (-2.5) | O/U n/a

Green Bay (-1) at Detroit | O/U 50.5

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-3) | O/U n/a

N.Y. Giants at Carolina (-7) | O/U 44.5

Tennessee (-3.5) at Buffalo | O/U 38.5

Oakland at L.A. Chargers (-6) | O/U 53.5

Arizona at San Francisco (-4.5) | O/U 

L.A. Rams (-7.5) at Seattle | O/U 50.5

Minnesota at Philadelphia (-3) | O/U 44.5

Dallas at Houston (-3.5) | O/U 45

Washington at New Orleans (-6.5) | O/U 52.5

Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-4)

John Bazemore/Associated Press

The Atlanta Falcons are due. 

Have to be. 

Atlanta has lost three of their opening four games, with the losses coming by margins of 18-12, 43-37 and 37-36. Along the way, Matt Ryan has completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 1,316 yards and 10 touchdowns against two interceptions. 

The context is staggering: 

Granted, the Pittsburgh Steelers haven't fared much better. The 1-2-1 record comes by way of 42-37 and 26-14 losses with a tie against the Cleveland Browns, and the offense has been unable to compensate for a miserable defense while hurting sans Le'Veon Bell. 

Of course, this wouldn't simply be a prediction based only on feeling. That miserable Steelers secondary isn't going to be able to keep pace with Ryan's weapons: 

• Julio Jones: 29 rec., 502 yds, 0 TD
• Calvin Ridley: 15 rec., 264 yards, 6 TD
• Mohamed Sanu: 16 rec., 184 yards, 1 TD

If Pittsburgh couldn't stop Cleveland from rolling up more than 300 total yards in a tie, Ryan's gaudy numbers are going to inflate further. If the defense coughed up 455 total yards in a three-point win over the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the unit is in for a tough time when Ryan spreads out the field. 

The point is, the struggling Steelers defense has only faced one potent passing attack so far. Ryan, despite the Falcons' flaws, might have the deadliest attack in the league. It will show here, where the biggest difference in the spread is simply location. 

Prediction: Falcons 34, Steelers 28

Denver at N.Y. Jets (-2.5)

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Bettors wanting to roll with the underdog better grab this one while it lasts. 

The Denver Broncos are on a two-game downswing after playing a pair of quality teams, going down at the hands of Baltimore in 27-14 fashion and Kansas City, 27-23. 

That last point should raise some eyebrows though, as the Von Miller-led unit held Mahomes to one passing score. Had Case Keenum's offense not went 2-of-11 on third down, we might be talking about how there is a better-than-expected race going on in the AFC West. 

Instead, let's settle for an upset over the New York Jets at home. 

Those Jets are doing the right thing by getting potential franchise passer Sam Darnold, this year's third pick, in games. But it's also costing the team games, as he's sitting on a completion percentage lower than 60 percent with four touchdowns and five interceptions. 

The result is three losses in a row, coughing up a loss to Cleveland then suffering a 31-12 thumping at the hands of Jacksonville. 

The problem for Darnold is the issues experienced secondaries and pass rushes give him—Denver has both of those. With Chris Harris and Bradley Roby in the secondary and Miller leading a pass rush with 10 sacks, the visiting Broncos should be able to cause a few rookie mistakes and compensate for their own lagging offensive attack. 

Prediction: Broncos 20, Jets 10

Arizona at San Francisco (-4.5)

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

The Arizona Cardinals have to win at some point, right? 

Arizona has come close over the past two weeks, losing 16-14 to Chicago and 20-17 to Seattle. The organization has at least finally made the right decision by going with first-round pick Josh Rosen, who against Seattle did what he could with 180 yards and a score. 

Perhaps more impressively, Arizona cleared up some of its miserable play calling from the first three games, giving David Johnson 22 carries, which he turned into 71 yards and a score. The rookie had a superb debut but got let down by several drops. 

Rosen should only improve if the guys around him start playing with more consistency, which is good news ahead of a game against the San Francisco 49ers. 

Those 49ers are dealing with the premature end of Jimmy Garoppolo's season, going down 29-27 at the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers while C.J. Beathard only managed a pair of touchdowns and interceptions. 

The quarterback hasn't been able to overcome the talent deficit in San Francisco either way, going 1-3 and only getting a win over Detroit by three points. The defense is allowing 29.5 points per game (27th) and 380.5 yards per game (20th), creating a scenario where the offense isn't getting enough snaps in the first place. 

Over the weekend, look for the Rosen hype to grow provided the coaching staff continues to improve on its rough play-calling start. Arizona has more talent in key places like running back and cornerback, which should translate to an ugly win in a game between rebuilding teams. 

Prediction: Cardinals 27, 49ers 23

Odds via OddsShark