NFL Picks Week 5: Advice on Latest Vegas Odds and Spreads for Upcoming Schedule

Paul KasabianSenior ContributorOctober 2, 2018

GREEN BAY, WI - SEPTEMBER 30:  Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers looks to pass during a game against the Buffalo Bills at Lambeau Field on September 30, 2018 in Green Bay, Wisconsin.  (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images

If you're like me and are looking for a shoulder to cry on after the Denver Broncos failed to cover as 3.5-point underdogs despite being up 23-13 midway through the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs then you're wasting your time as no one cares about your gambling sob story.

Our best bet is to move forward and make better selections for Week 5, which has a whopping seven games with over/under totals of 50 or more points.

Per OddsShark, here's a look at the Week 5 lines alongside picks against the spread and over/under guesses. You can also find quick takes on each game below.

            

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10.5, 51 O/U): NE and Under

The Indianapolis Colts go into this game beat up. Although the team did not practice Monday in advance of their Thursday Night Football matchup with the New England Patriots, the Colts released a list of names that would have been out had they done so.

Among them were wideout T.Y. Hilton, tight end Jack Doyle and cornerback Kenny Moore. That's not a good sign against a Pats team that got its mojo back after a 38-7 win over the Miami Dolphins. The Pats may win this one running away.

                

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 57.5 O/U): PIT and Over

Both defenses have struggled so much of late that it's hard seeing this game finishing without Pittsburgh and Atlanta crossing the 30-point barrier.

As for the winner, take the Steelers minus the points. Atlanta has lost two straight home games and is now tasked with beating Pittsburgh on the road. The Falcons can't stop the pass, and the Steelers have two of the best wideouts in football in Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Pittsburgh takes this one.

      

Baltimore Ravens (-3, 47 O/U) at Cleveland Browns: CLE and Under

The Cleveland Browns defense that significantly slowed down the high-powered Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints offenses was nowhere to be found Sunday in a 45-42 loss to the Oakland Raiders.

Perhaps one can chalk it up to traveling cross country or playing in a tough Oakland Coliseum environment, but look for the Browns to get back on track at home against their division rival.

                

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-1, 43.5 O/U): DEN and Under

The Denver Broncos are a better team than the New York Jets, which is in a tailspin after losing three in a row. Gang Green hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game since a 48-17 blowout of the Detroit Lions.

The Broncos have to fly cross country on a short week, but the Jets' stagnant offense and struggling secondary (Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles just torched them for 388 yards) will be causes for defeat here.

              

Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 50.5 O/U) at Detroit Lions: GB and Over

The pick here was originally in favor of the Detroit Lions, but betting against Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers when he's facing a struggling defense in an indoor stadium doesn't seem like a great play.

Lions cornerback Darius Slay is one of the best in the game and should give Packers wideout Davante Adams some problems, but the Packers can throw three running backs at a Lions run defense that just allowed 240 yards from scrimmage to the Dallas Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott. That trio plus tight end Jimmy Graham should be enough for the win.

                    

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 48.5 O/U): Chiefs Win

This is clearly the league's top game of the week as the 3-1 Jaguars play the undefeated Chiefs, but it's also a clear stay-away matchup as far as betting goes.

It's hard to gauge whether the near-unstoppable Chiefs offense or powerful Jaguars defense will win out. In addition, Bortles has either been excellent (passing games of 376 and 388 yards) or less so (176 and 155 yards). Which passing offense will we get Sunday? Who knows?

In the end, give the slight edge to the home side for the victory.

                

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 50 O/U): MIA and Under

The Cincinnati Bengals return suspended linebacker Vontaze Burfict and perhaps starting running back Joe Mixon as well (head coach Marvin Lewis said "we'll see" when asked about Mixon Monday).

Against Miami, the clear edge goes to Cincinnati at home with Burfict back to help a Bengals defense that has been shredded for 67 points in the past two weeks. Mixon would be a bonus.

                 

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-7, 44.5 O/U): CAR and Under

The New York Giants offense has two of the best skill-position talents in the game (running back Saquon Barkley and wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.), but it only has 73 points through four weeks in a league that at times resembles Big 12 football.

That's not a good sign moving forward, and now the Giants face a Panthers defense with a fantastic front seven led by middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. Take the under and Carolina minus the points.

              

Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 38.5 O/U) at Buffalo Bills: BUF and Under

As good as the Tennessee Titans have been through four weeks, this subjectively feels like a classic letdown spot. They just won a long, emotional game against the defending Super Bowl champions and now have to turn around and play a road matchup.

The Bills offense was terrible in a 22-0 loss to the Green Bay Packers, but (a) they are back home and (b) the defense looks like it turned a corner as it has now held two good offenses to 28 total points on the road in two weeks.

Also, the Bills get the half-point hook here, which is helpful for betting purposes. Take the Bills and the under in the ugliest game of the week.

             

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 53.5 O/U): OAK and Under

The Oakland Raiders will play a glorified home game, as their national fanbase will likely flood a Chargers' temporary home stadium that has been filled with opposing fans since the team moved to L.A.

Because of that, the 5.5-point spread seems a touch to high. Also, the Bolts needed all four quarters to beat a 1-3 San Francisco 49ers team that has suffered more serious injuries than most.

The Bolts are also without edge-rusher Joey Bosa, which may help the Oakland offense sustain the momentum it gained in a 45-42 win over the Cleveland Browns Sunday.

              

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 41 O/U): SF and Under

Taking the four points with the Arizona Cardinals is enticing, especially since the 49ers are significantly short-handed due to injuries.

At the same time, the Cardinals offense is the worst in football and hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game this year.

The good news is that rookie quarterback Josh Rosen, who made his first career start Sunday, has tremendous potential and can guide Arizona to better days. When that will be is anyone's guess, but until the Arizona offense shows more signs of life, the Cardinals are a hard team to back.

              

Los Angeles Rams (-7, 50.5 O/Uat Seattle Seahawks: LAR and Over

It's never easy for NFL teams to travel to the house of horrors that is CenturyLink Field, but the Seattle Seahawks won't have safety Earl Thomas, who is out for the season with a left leg fracture suffered Sunday.

Thomas, who was named a First Team All-Pro three times, was the heart and soul of the Seattle defense for close to nine years and is a loss the Seahawks can't overcome. The Los Angeles Rams may put up 40-plus points on Sunday even though they are on the road.

                

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 44.5 O/U): PHI and Over

The Minnesota Vikings have the added benefit of three more days' rest than their Week 5 opponent by virtue of playing on Thursday Night Football, but the defense is in serious trouble after allowing 94 points over the past three weeks.

Meanwhile, the Eagles offense has gotten some key pieces back in recent weeks, most notably quarterback Carson Wentz and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. Expect them to give the Vikings another rough day on the defensive side.

        

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3.5, 45 O/U): DAL and Under

After the Jaguars-Chiefs game, this is the second-toughest to call. The Dallas Cowboys' best bet is to establish the run with Ezekiel Elliott and pound the Houston Texans defense all game. Houston would be wise to attack Dallas through the air, take an early lead and force Dallas to pass more, which has not been a strength this year.

Who wins the battle? It's hard to say. Dallas is the pick against the spread here because is it getting a half-point hook.

           

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 52.5 O/U): WSH and Over

This is a gut call, but the guess here is that this line moves some in favor of the Washington Redskins as the week moves along.

The 'Skins defense has little hope in stopping the Saints offense, which is an absolute buzzsaw right now and returns running back Mark Ingram II from a suspension.

But New Orleans may have an equally hard time with the Washington offense, which has a deep threat (Paul Richardson), a fantastic tight end (Jordan Reed) and a multi-talented running back (Chris Thompson) to throw at them, among others. Look for a high-scoring shootout decided by a deficit closer to a field goal than a touchdown.

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