Buffalo Bills vs. Green Bay Packers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

It's almost hard to believe, but following two big upsets last week, double-digit favorites in the NFL this season are just 1-3 both straight up and against the spread.

Green Bay will play as a double-digit favorite when it battles Buffalo on Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field.

NFL point spread: The Packers opened as 10.5-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.7-14.5 Packers (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills just pulled off one of the biggest upsets in recent NFL memory, beating the Vikings in Minneapolis outright 27-6 as 16-point underdogs.

Buffalo drove the opening possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown, led 17-0 after one quarter and 27-0 at the half and cruised from there, handing Minnesota a most unlikely home defeat.

The Bills outrushed the Vikings 128-14, held a 36/24 advantage in time of possession and won the turnover battle 3-0.

Rookie quarterback Josh Allen hit on 15 of 22 throws for 196 yards and a touchdown and ran for 39 yards and two scores, while the Buffalo defense kept Minnesota off the scoreboard until just under three minutes remained in the game.

The Bills are now 4-7 SU but 6-5 ATS over their last 11 games on the road.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers are looking to bounce back this week after taking a tough 31-17 loss at Washington last week.

Green Bay fell down to the Redskins 14-0 in the first quarter and trailed at the half 28-10. The Packers then scored the first touchdown out of the locker room and looked like they were going to get the ball back with good field position. But a roughing the passer call on linebacker Clay Matthews broke their momentum and Green Bay never recovered.

The Packers got outgained by Washington but only by a margin of 386-340. What really hurt was several dropped passes at key moments in the game and 115 yards worth of penalties.

Green Bay had Minnesota beat two weeks ago, but another roughing call stole a victory from the Packers, and they eventually settled for a 29-29 tie.

Smart betting pick

While the Bills secured a huge upset in Week 3, they face an almost inevitable letdown on Sunday. However, Green Bay can't get out of its own way at the moment, quarterback Aaron Rodgers is hobbled with a sore leg and the spread on this game is inflated. The smart money here bets Buffalo plus the points.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in the Bills' last four games versus the Packers.

The Packers are 27-7-1 SU in their last 35 games at home versus teams with losing records.

The Bills are 1-17 SU in their last 18 games as a double-digit underdog.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.