Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Atlanta Falcons (1-2) will look to bounce back from a tough overtime loss this Sunday when they host the Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) as solid home favorites at sportsbooks. The Falcons fell 43-37 to the New Orleans Saints at home last Sunday after they beat the Carolina Panthers 31-24 in their home opener the previous week.

NFL point spread: The Falcons opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via Linebacker: 29.9-20.8 Falcons (Premium NFL betting picks)

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Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals are coming off their first loss of the season to a common opponent in the Panthers, who defeated them 31-21 on the road last week. Cincinnati had won its first two games of the year, including a 34-23 victory against the Indianapolis Colts away from home in Week 1.

The Bengals are 8-0 straight up in their last eight road games versus teams with losing records and 6-2 against the spread in their previous eight as underdogs, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, so that bodes well here.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The home team is an impressive 6-1 SU and ATS in the past seven meetings between these teams, which obviously favors Atlanta in this matchup. The Falcons have also gone 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine games at home versus teams with winning records, and they had gone 5-1 SU and ATS in their previous six overall there before losing to the Saints.

Last week, Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton threw four interceptions on the road at Carolina, and the Atlanta defense will try to pressure him into making more mistakes in this spot, where he has never played in his career.

Smart betting pick

The Falcons are hurting defensively right now, and that was evident in last week's defeat. But while the Bengals have the offensive weapons to test them again and keep this game within the point spread, Dalton simply cannot be trusted to get the job done.

Atlanta has gone 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games during the month of September, and that includes last week's loss to New Orleans. The Falcons will take advantage of more turnovers from Dalton to rebound with a win and cover.

NFL betting trends

The visiting team is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven games in this matchup.

The total has gone over in five of the Bengals' last seven games vs the Falcons.

The Falcons are 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games at home in September.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.