Week 4 NFL Picks: Over/Under Projections, Odds Advice and Line Spreads

Another set of early-week NFL lines, another chance at poking holes in what the house offers before oddsmakers adjust. 

There are always lines to exploit, though the first offering of a week can offer some serious advantages. A week ago, oddsmakers opened with the Minnesota Vikings as 17-point favorites over the Buffalo Bills—easy money for bettors because it was so ridiculous, and Buffalo ended up winning outright. 

A still-settling into normalcy NFL is bound to offer a few more surprises in Week 4, where there are several notable big lines across a slate featuring more oddities such as cross-conference games with a dash of divisional games. Remember bye weeks are beginning as well. 

Here's a look at the full slate. 

Week 4 NFL Odds

Minnesota at L.A. Rams (-7) | O/U 49

Buffalo at Green Bay (-10) | O/U 45.5

Cincinnati at Atlanta (-6) | O/U 51

Detroit at Dallas (-3) | O/U 43.5

Houston at Indianapolis (-1) | O/U 47

Miami at New England (-7) | O/U 47.5

N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville (-7.5) | O/U 38

Philadelphia (-4) at Tennessee | O/U 41.5

Tampa Bay at Chicago (-1.5) | O/U n/a

Cleveland at Oakland (-3) | O/U 45

Seattle (-3) at Arizona | O/U 38.5

New Orleans (-3.5) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 50

San Francisco at L.A. Chargers (-10.5) | O/U 47.5

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3) | O/U n/a

Kansas City (-4.5) at Denver | O/U 56

Miami at New England (-7)

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Bettors have to love another shot at the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots. 

This one has been as reliable as it gets over the years, with Tom Brady boasting a 21-10 record against his AFC East rival. Granted, this one has some outside noise around it in large part because the Patriots are 1-2 and the Dolphins have an undefeated mark at 3-0. 

But as good as those Dolphins look, it's important to contextualize the record. Week 1 was a weird weather-delayed win over Tennessee while Marcus Mariota only attempted 16 passes before handing things off to Blaine Gabbert, Week 2 was feasting on Sam Darnold and Week 3 was taking down an oddly-rebuilding Oakland team. 

This isn't meant to fully discredit the Dolphins—a hot start is a hot start and Ryan Tannehill is completing 73 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. But Brady is Brady. And the injury bug is also starting to pop up: 

These Patriots aren't without problems but Brady isn't one of them, not with him completing 64 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and two interceptions. 

New England's problem comes on the defensive side of the football after giving up a stunning combined 57 points over two road games while getting knocked around by Jacksonville's defense and Detroit's Matthew Stafford. 

But Miami is a familiar opponent, meaning Brady and Belichick at home against a team they typically beat in what amounts to a must-win game. Counting on anything but Brady putting the team on his back for a comfortable result is playing with fire for no good reason. 

Prediction: Patriots 30, Dolphins 20

N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville (-7.5) 

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It doesn't get much easier than this in Week 4. 

Jacksonville against rookie quarterbacks prints money. The Jaguars are 2-1, having already bested the New York Giants and New England Patriots, meaning Eli Manning and Brady, respectively, before an odd 9-6 stinker of a loss at the hands of the Tennessee Titans. 

Outside of being a defensive force, Blake Bortles continues to develop into what the Jaguars envisioned, throwing for five touchdowns against two interceptions and rushing for 104 yards on the ground, even outdueling Brady in their head-to-head matchup: 

The Jets look better off for the future than they have in a long time with Darnold under center, but this is a developmental year for all involved, hence losses to Miami and Cleveland of all teams. 

Darnold himself has shown flashes, but he's only sitting on a 60.2 completion percentage with three touchdowns and five interceptions. The Jets dropping 48 points in Week 1 was always considered an anomaly, with them totaling 29 combined points over the next two losses. 

A Jalen Ramsey-led defense is going to feast here. If the Browns can beat these Jets by four, the Jaguars at home should run away with it. 

Prediction: Jaguars 28, Jets 10

San Francisco at L.A. Chargers (-10.5)

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This one was going to be quite a bit more interesting before the Jimmy Garoppolo injury, which will sideline him for the season, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. 

Granted, the 49ers are only 1-2 and Garoppolo completed less than 60 percent of his passes before going down, but his presence and continued improvement of the team around him figured to make this one at least competitive. 

Now, not so much. 

While Garoppolo is the headline act, the 49ers have other major problems: 

The Los Angeles Chargers are only 1-2 but have put up 28 and 23 points in losses, going down at the hands of electric Kansas City and Los Angeles Rams offenses. Philip Rivers is once again playing at an elite clip, this time completing 69.4 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns against one interception, so it's a matter of his defense encountering an offense that can't put up points in droves. 

That would be this matchup, where the 49ers will turn to C.J. Beathard, a former third-round pick with 224 career attempts to his name and a 54.9 completion percentage. 

A defense with Melvin Ingram rushing the passer and elite rookie safety Derwin James patrolling the middle of the field is going to give the 49ers problems and as is the case with most, they won't have an answer for Rivers attack, either. 

Prediction: Chargers 31, 49ers 10

Odds via OddsShark