Indianapolis Colts vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Since becoming the starter at quarterback, the Indianapolis Colts are 47-31 with Andrew Luck (including playoffs), 10-16 without him.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles are 18-11 with Carson Wentz at quarterback and 6-2 without him. So it would seem Luck means more to the Colts than Wentz does to the Eagles.

Who's the smart bet for Sunday afternoon's meeting at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia?

NFL point spread: The Eagles opened as six-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.4-17.8 Eagles (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts bounced back from a season-opening loss to Cincinnati to beat the Redskins in Washington last week 21-9, their first victory under new coach Frank Reich.

Indianapolis drove the opening possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown, led 14-3 at halftime, let Washington get within 14-9 early in the fourth quarter then immediately drove 75 yards to a clinching touchdown.

The Colts outrushed the Redskins 104-65 and converted nine of 16 third downs into first downs. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis defense held the Washington offense out of the end zone all day, even against a couple of short fields.

The Colts opened this season with that 34-23 loss to the Bengals, but that final score is misleading. Indianapolis led that game 23-10 well into the third quarter before Cincinnati used a 17-0 run to take a four-point lead.

Indianapolis then had a chance in the final minute, but a fumble off a pass completion inside the Bengals' red zone went the other way for a touchdown.

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

The Super Bowl champs are looking to bounce back themselves this week after falling at Tampa Bay last week 27-21.

The Eagles gave up a 75-yard touchdown on the first play from scrimmage, tied the game at 7-7 late in the second quarter but then immediately gave up another 75-yard touchdown from scrimmage. Philadelphia later fell down 27-7, rallied to within one score with just under three minutes remaining but could get no closer.

The Eagles accumulated 412 yards of offense last week and held a 36/24 advantage in time of possession. But they also gave up those two long scores, missed a field goal and failed twice on fourth downs inside Buccaneers territory.

The big news out of Philly this week is the return of Carson Wentz at quarterback. Last year the Eagles averaged 31 points per game with him, 24.5 without him.

Smart betting pick

Indianapolis is simply a much better team with Luck than without him. Meanwhile, Wentz is back, but it remains to be seen how aggressively Philadelphia might operate with him and whether he'll show some rust.

Reich is probably familiar with the Eagles and their schemes after serving as offensive coordinator for Philly the last two seasons. The smart money takes the Colts and the points.

NFL betting trends

The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Eagles.

The total has gone over in the Colts' last six games versus the Eagles.

The Colts are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs the NFC.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.