San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 20, 2018

PITTSBURGH, PA - SEPTEMBER 16:  Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs in action during the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field on September 16, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
Joe Sargent/Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-3 both straight up and against the spread over their last 11 home games. The San Francisco 49ers are only 4-10 SU but 9-5 ATS for their last 14 times out on the road.

Where might the smart money reside for Sunday afternoon's Niners-Chiefs battle at Arrowhead Stadium?

             

NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 52.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.5-21.8 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

             

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

The 49ers lost their season opener at Minnesota 24-16 but found paydirt last week with a 30-27 victory over Detroit.

San Francisco scored 10 points on its first two possessions of the game and led 13-10 at the half. It then hit the scoreboard on three of its first four second-half possessions to take a 30-13 lead on the Lions and hung on from there.

Unfortunately for their financial backers, the 49ers let Detroit score twice in prevent mode in the fourth quarter and missed the cover as a six-point favorite.

On the day, the Niners outrushed Detroit 190-98, as running back Matt Breida ran for 138 yards on just 11 carries, including a 66-yard scoring jaunt that gave San Francisco a two-score lead late in the third quarter.

The 49ers are now 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS with Jimmy Garappolo starting at quarterback.

         

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

With two impressive victories to open this season, the Chiefs are receiving recognition as perhaps the best team in the NFL at the moment.

Kansas City opened with a 38-28 victory over the Chargers in Los Angeles and then zapped the Steelers in Pittsburgh last week, 42-37.

The Chiefs scored touchdowns on their first three possessions Sunday to take a 21-0 first-quarter lead. Kansas City then allowed the Steelers to hit back in a 21-21 tie at halftime, but it scored touchdowns on its first three possessions of the second half to reassert control.

KC kept Pittsburgh from getting back within one score until just under two minutes remained and then ran out the clock to secure the win.

The Chiefs were almost too efficient on offense for their own good last week; their longest scoring drive clocked in at just 3:57.

On the day, Kansas City racked up 454 yards on offense, as quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 326 yards and six touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense allowed 475 yards of Steelers offense, but most of that was situational, playing most of the day protecting a lead.

Mahomes now has 10 touchdowns passes through two games this season, with zero interceptions.

           

Smart betting pick

Kansas City is a popular betting pick at the moment, with its hot new quarterback, but that's not always a good thing when it comes to covering spreads. With increased recognition comes inflated spreads, especially when playing at home.

San Francisco, meanwhile, has been a good bet on the road as of late.

The Chiefs will probably win this game outright, but smart money takes the 49ers and the points.

          

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in the 49ers' last three games on the road vs the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games in September.

The total has gone over in four of the 49ers' last five games. (Avg combined score: 53.8)

          

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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