New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

In the decade-long battle between NFL divisional-rival quarterbacks Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, Brees' New Orleans Saints are 11-8. But Ryan's Atlanta Falcons are 3-1 over the last four meetings.

Who is the better bet when these teams meet for the first time this season Sunday afternoon in Atlanta?

NFL point spread: The Falcons opened as four-point favorites; the total was 54.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via Linebacker: 27.0-25.7 Saints (Premium NFL betting picks)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

After taking an upset against Tampa Bay to open this season, New Orleans hit the win column last week with a 21-18 decision over a game Cleveland team.

The Saints actually trailed the Browns 12-3 into the fourth quarter but turned a missed Cleveland field goal into one touchdown, an interception into another touchdown, then drove 49 yards in the final minute to the game-winning field goal.

New Orleans may have had a little easier time of it last week, but they settled for a field goal from a 1st-and-goal from the Browns' 2-yard line, lost two first-half fumbles and missed a field goal, all of which basically cost the Saints 10 points.

New Orleans may be just 1-1 with a fortunate victory over a snake-bit Cleveland outfit, but the Saints are still a team that nearly made the NFC Championship Game last year. They just haven't played a full good game yet this season.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons also lost their season opener, a tough 18-12 decision at Super Bowl champion Philadelphia, but also hit the win column last week with a 31-24 divisional victory over Carolina.

Atlanta trailed the Panthers early 10-3 but scored twice in the last four minutes of the first half to lead 17-10 into the locker room.

The Falcons then scored the first seven points of the second half for a two-score lead, let Carolina pull back to within one score at 24-17, then immediately drove 75 yards to the game-clinching touchdown on their way to the victory and the cover as five-point favorites.

Atlanta outrushed the Panthers 170-121, as running back Tevin Coleman, getting snaps in place on the injured Devonta Freeman, ran 16 times for 107 yards. In fact, the occasionally pass-happy Falcons actually ran the ball four more times than they threw it, 32-28. Atlanta also scored four touchdowns out of four red-zone possessions.

The Falcons had a chance to win that season-opener against the Eagles, but just like in last year's NFC playoff battle, they came up a late pass completion in the end zone short.

Smart betting pick

Atlanta has taken three of the last four meetings in this series, and it's put on the better showing thus far this season. The smart money here gives the short spread with the Falcons.

NFL betting trends

The Saints are 1-3 SU in their last four games on the road against the Falcons.

The total has gone under in seven of the Saints' last nine games on the road versus the Falcons.

The total has gone under in eight of the Falcons' last nine games.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.