New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Cleveland Browns (0-1-1) are hoping to earn their first victory of the NFL season after a couple close calls when they host the New York Jets (1-1) as small home favorites at sportsbooks for the Week 3 Thursday night matchup.

The Browns fell to 1-32-1 in their last 34 games on Sunday when they lost 21-18 to the New Orleans Saints on a field goal in the final minute after blowing a six-point lead in the fourth quarter.

NFL point spread: The Browns opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 40 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 23.9-14.1 Browns (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Jets can cover the spread

The Jets have split their first two games but did not give up in their last one despite trailing 20-0 at halftime to the Miami Dolphins.

New York went on to lose 20-12 to Miami, although rookie Sam Darnold once again overcame a poor start to finish with respectable numbers. Darnold ended up completing 25-of-41 passes for 334 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, leading the team on three scoring drives after halftime.

If Darnold can get off to a better start, the Jets will have another shot to win.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Cleveland should have at least one win already straight up but is a perfect 2-0 against the spread so far this season. The Browns have played well enough defensively versus two elite offensive teams in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Saints, which should give them plenty of confidence in this spot.

While Darnold has played fairly well for a rookie, he is obviously not on the same level as Super Bowl champions like Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh or Drew Brees in New Orleans. If Cleveland is going to win any game this year, it is this one with the team playing in prime time and hosting a beatable opponent.

Smart betting pick

The Browns have performed surprisingly well in Thursday games, going 5-2 ATS in their last seven appearances. The favorite in this series has also covered the spread in each of the past eight meetings, which is yet another reason to back them here. Take Cleveland to beat New York and the number.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in 11 of the Browns' last 14 games at home.

The Jets are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games at night.

The total has gone under in three of the Jets' last four games.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.