Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 12, 2018

PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 06:  Julio Jones #11 of the Atlanta Falcons reacts after being defeated by the Philadelphia Eagles 18-12 at Lincoln Financial Field on September 6, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

The Atlanta Falcons (0-1) hope to take advantage of some extra time off on Sunday when they host the Carolina Panthers (1-0) as solid home favorites at sportsbooks in a key NFC South matchup.

The Falcons are coming off an 18-12 road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last Thursday while the banged-up Panthers defeated the Dallas Cowboys 16-8 on Sunday in two games that easily finished under the total.

     

NFL point spread: The Falcons opened as four-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 22.4-21.1 Panthers (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

       

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

Carolina lost an important cog in the offense last week when tight end Greg Olsen went down with a fractured foot again, but his value might be a bit overrated with regards to the point spread.

The Panthers saw him go down early in their win over the Cowboys and still did enough to earn the victory, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

They sacked Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott six times and held the opposition to just 232 total yards, and another performance like that could lead to an upset win at Atlanta.

         

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons have won eight of the past 10 home meetings in this series both straight up and against the spread, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

That is certainly a trend worth betting on along with the fact they are also 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS in their previous 16 home games played during the month of September.

While Atlanta did not look great last Thursday at Philadelphia, the team had its moments with a chance to win at the end, just like in its divisional playoff matchup played there in January.

     

Smart betting pick

Carolina's lack of offense will be too much to overcome in this spot, especially since the team has already dropped seven of its last eight divisional road games.

The Falcons will be extra motivated to forget about Week 1 and impress their fans in their home opener with a rebound win over the Panthers.

And with a 9-2 SU mark in its last 11 games versus NFC South foes, look for Atlanta to come through with another win and cover.

       

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in eight of the Panthers' last 10 games against the Falcons.

The Panthers are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games on the road against the Falcons.

The total has gone under in four of the Panthers' last five games in September.

     

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

Related

    Lions’ Sideline Is HYPED 🤩🎥

    NFL logo
    NFL

    Lions’ Sideline Is HYPED 🤩🎥

    thecheckdown
    via Twitter

    Jimmy G's Injury Turns 49ers' Dream Season to a Nightmare

    NFL logo
    NFL

    Jimmy G's Injury Turns 49ers' Dream Season to a Nightmare

    Brad Gagnon
    via Bleacher Report

    Should the Cowboys Bench Dak?

    NFL logo
    NFL

    Should the Cowboys Bench Dak?

    Tyler Conway
    via Bleacher Report

    Matthews' Penalty Stirs Up Another Rule Controversy

    NFL logo
    NFL

    Matthews' Penalty Stirs Up Another Rule Controversy

    Mike Freeman
    via Bleacher Report