Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Cleveland Browns will go for their first win since 2016 on Sunday when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers as small home underdogs at the sportsbooks in Week 1. The Browns were winless a year ago, with their last victory coming on December 24, 2016. Meanwhile, the Steelers will likely be without disgruntled running back Le'Veon Bell, per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler.

NFL point spread: The Steelers opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 22.6-20.6 Browns (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Bell's absence could loom large for Pittsburgh down the road, but not necessarily against an inferior team like Cleveland. The Steelers are riding a 10-game winning streak versus AFC North opponents, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, with the average margin of victory sitting at 6.9 points.

The second part of that equation is huge given that the line has dropped in favor of the Browns following the Bell news. Pittsburgh remains an extremely talented offensive team and should cover with a win.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns simply cannot play any worse than they have the previous two seasons when they went a combined 1-31 straight up and 7-24-1 ATS. They upgraded several of their positions this offseason in hopes of being more competitive, and many experts believe they are much-improved compared to where they were last year.

In fact, as bad as Cleveland was in 2017, the team still found a way to cover the 10-point spread in a 21-18 loss to the Steelers in the regular-season opener. With veteran Tyrod Taylor under center now instead of then-rookie DeShone Kizer, the Browns are better.

Smart betting pick

Handicapping this divisional matchup will likely come down to how much you believe Bell means to Pittsburgh's chances to cover. Even if he plays, he will not log enough time to make a significant enough impact without taking part in training camp.

Is Cleveland underrated in this spot? With the line already down a few points from the opening number, the value on the Browns is seemingly gone. So the Steelers will likely just need to win the game to cover the spread, giving them much more value as smaller favorites than in most of the recent previous meetings in the series. Take Pittsburgh.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in eight of the Steelers' last 11 games against the Browns.

The Browns are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games at home.

The total has gone under in seven of the Steelers' last eight games on the road.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.