Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The New England Patriots will try to start this season differently than 2017 on Sunday when they host the Houston Texans as large home favorites at the sportsbooks.

The Patriots fell to the Kansas City Chiefs in last year's NFL season opener yet still went on to play in the Super Bowl thanks to an MVP campaign from quarterback Tom Brady, something the Texans are hoping to do this season with Deshaun Watson back under center.

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 51.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.8-15.9 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston nearly upset New England a year ago in Week 3 due to the heroics of Watson, who completed 22 of 33 passes for 301 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in a 36-33 defeat.

The Patriots scored the game-winning touchdown with 23 seconds remaining, but the Texans proved they are a team to be reckoned with as long as Watson is playing. Watson later suffered a torn ACL after Week 8 and missed the rest of the season. Houston will almost always have a shot with him on the field.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England has been the standard of excellence in the league for nearly two decades, with the combination of Brady and head coach Bill Belichick. The Patriots have won 20 straight games against AFC South opponents dating back to 2010, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, going 13-7 against the spread during that stretch.

One of the non-covers came versus the Texans last year, which was also one of the few times recently that their defense did not play well against an AFC South foe. New England held five other AFC South teams to 20 points or less in the last six, including last year's 24-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Championship Game.

Smart betting pick

Other than Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski, you can certainly make the argument that Houston has better offensive players. The defenses are also comparable, setting up for another competitive matchup. While the Patriots will likely beat an AFC South team for the 21st time in a row, look for the Texans to stay close and cover again.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in eight of the Texans' last 10 games against the Patriots.

The Patriots are 20-0 SU in their last 20 games against AFC South teams.

The Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in September.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.