Week 1 NFL Picks: Season-Opening Betting Odds, Vegas Spreads and Projections

When it comes to NFL odds, the same theories often apply to both teams and bettors themselves. 

With the Week 1 slate starting Thursday with an NFC powerhouse showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles, it's important for those teams to get off to a hot start—just like bettors. 

Those who want to dabble in NFL lines on a consistent basis have to hit the ground running and build a respectable bankroll, hopefully using the gains in Week 1 to ride a wave.

There are plenty of holes to poke in lines during the first week of the season and capitalize on because while oddsmakers are oddsmakers for a reason, they're also starting the season anew and far from perfect. 

With such a theme in mind, the volatile Week 1 featuring everyone adjusting as developments unfold makes for some great early-week scenarios for bettors. 

Week 1 NFL Odds

Atlanta at Philadelphia (-3) | O/U 45.5

Buffalo at Baltimore (-7) | O/U 40.5

Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-3) | O/U 46.5

Houston at New England (-6) | O/U 50.5

Jacksonville (-3) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 43.5

Pittsburgh (-6) at Cleveland | O/U 45.5

San Francisco at Minnesota (-6) | O/U 46

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-9.5) | O/U 49.5

Tennessee (-1) at Miami | O/U 45

Kansas City at L.A. Chargers (-3) | O/U 47.5

Dallas at Carolina (-3) | O/U 42.5

Seattle at Denver (-3) | O/U 42

Washington at Arizona (E) | O/U 44

Chicago at Green Bay (-7.5) | O/U 47.5

N.Y. Jets at Detroit (-7) | O/U 44.5

L.A. Rams (-5) at Oakland | O/U 49.5

Pittsburgh (-6) at Cleveland

While the theme of the intro is important to remember, there is another one to keep in mind—don't get cute. 

This one has plenty of cute factors so let's tick off these boxes quickly. Yes, the Cleveland Browns are likable after the Hard Knocks appearance. Yes, they should be better than past years, which isn't saying much. And yes, the Pittsburgh Steelers likely won't have Le'Veon Bell, who didn't show up for practice Monday: 

While those are fun talking points, none of them really matter. 

The Browns are going to come into this game looking rusty while they try to break in a new offense led by quarterback Tyrod Taylor. He's a quality player by all means, but quick-hitting plays to Jarvis Landry aren't going to keep pace with an explosive Pittsburgh offense (Josh Gordon won't start). 

These Steelers still have Ben Roethlisberger present despite Bell's possible absence, and he's still a guy who completed north of 64 percent of his passes last year with 28 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. His Antonio Brown-JuJu Smith-Schuster duo will be more than enough to negate a Myles Garrett-led pass rush if they can get the ball out quickly. 

Oddsmakers have this line down to six already due to a combination of the Bell and road factors for the Steelers. But we're still talking about one of the most lopsided affairs in sports considering Big Ben's 22-2 mark against the Browns.

Six points is more than enough against a Browns team entering the season trying to figure things out on the offensive side of the ball. 

Prediction: Steelers 23, Browns 10

Kansas City at L.A. Chargers (-3) 

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There is a similar theme here for an AFC West encounter between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. 

These Chiefs should be a very good team once the ball gets rolling—but that's going to take some time. 

Yes, the Chiefs beat the Chargers 24-10 and 30-13 a year ago before making an exit in their first postseason game. But that was years of Andy Reid and Alex Smith getting on the same page, resulting in a career year for the latter despite his time in the league. 

However, the job now falls to Patrick Mahomes, who has best-in-league potential but also struggled in his only game a year ago, throwing for 284 yards with an interception. 

Contrast that with the continuity of the Chargers and Philip Rivers, a guy who casually cruised to another 4,515 yards and 28 touchdowns a year ago while getting less than four yards per carry from his ground game.

He's flanked by what might be the NFL's most underrated defense in large part thanks to the pass-rushing tandem of Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, two pillars of a unit that drummed up 43 sacks a year ago and should only improve with the arrival of No. 17 overall pick and safety Derwin James. 

In Los Angeles, a player such as Mahomes with one real game under his belt could run into some problems.

Oddsmakers clearly still think it will be close, but bettors should be comfortable rolling with an elite defense and a guy like Rivers, who knows all too well about his opponent. 

Prediction: Chargers 28, Chiefs 20

Seattle at Denver (-3) 

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A cross-conference battle in Week 1 is confusing for everyone. 

The good news is the Seattle Seahawks look like an exploitable team this year—and not in a good way.

These Seahawks hardly made it through last season with nine wins and only because Russell Wilson put up an MVP-like performance behind a poor offensive line, throwing 34 touchdowns with 11 interceptions and also leading the team in rushing with 586 yards and three touchdowns. 

For those keeping track, the Seahawks didn't have an overly high-impact draft and also lost core pieces such as Michael Bennett, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Cliff Avril, Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson. 

Got all that? And to be fair, the Denver Broncos are trying to break in new quarterback Case Keenum, which is an uphill battle no matter how solid he's looked: 

Keenum is a guy coming off one solid season out of nowhere who had superb coaching at his back, so bettors being shy about his upside is understandable.

But this matchup is more about Denver's defense at home. The Von Miller unit is not only very good, it also added No. 5 pick Bradley Chubb to the equation, which makes for a nightmare scenario for Wilson. 

Not only will a depleted Seahawks roster need a heroic effort from Wilson to make this one close, they are notorious in recent years for starting slow. They started 2017 1-2, 2016 4-2-1 and 2015 2-4, especially struggling away from home.

In Denver, Wilson won't have enough in the face of a hostile crowd and elite pass rush. 

Prediction: Broncos 23, Seahawks 17

Odds according to OddsShark.