Fantasy Football 2018: Todd Gurley and Safest Players to Draft No. 1

Though the NFL might shift in a tug-of-war between offenses evolving and defenses adapting, much about fantasy football remains the same. 

Primarily, running backs continue to rule the scene. 

Little will change in this regard no matter how much the position itself develops in the coming years. The onset of the committee approach and continued importance of running backs contributing via the passing game hasn't changed the need to grab an elite player early in fantasy drafts—but it does mean more viable options in the later rounds. 

Elsewhere, quarterback remains heavily streamable, wideout is as deep as ever after the top five and tight end is mostly a guessing game. It means the top of drafts, regardless of format, continue to see running backs sit on the throne. 

Todd Gurley

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

It's no use avoiding Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley, last year's top overall scorer. 

In ESPN's standard format, Gurley hit the 383.3-point mark as one of only six players to go over the threshold of 300. He was one of three players to score better than 320, with one player a qualifier as a top pick (discussed below), and the other a miracle job from Russell Wilson owners can't bank on happening again. 

Gurley did his damage behind an improved offensive line and smarter coaching, rattling off 1,305 yards and 13 touchdowns on a 4.7 per-carry average. He continued to progress as a receiver as well, catching 64 passes for 788 yards and six more scores. 

The Rams didn't hesitate to reward the 24-year-old running back: 

Unlike another name who shows up here, Gurley doesn't have any sort of contract situation hanging over his head. He's a workhorse for a superb offense and versatile enough that nobody is going to steal his snaps. 

While it isn't meant to discredit Gurley himself, this is fairly typical for fantasy football. He'll remain the top overall option for the next few seasons before the next must-have workhorse comes along. While he's not as flashy as the next guy, Gurley might have more upside because more of his offense clearly goes through him. 

Le'Veon Bell

Doug Benc/Associated Press

For better or worse, Le'Veon Bell is the guy continually hinted at above. 

Bell became the must-own back a few years ago, and over 15 games in 2017, he ripped off 1,291 yards and nine touchdowns while catching another 85 passes for 655 yards and two scores, putting him just over the 340-point mark. 

But with Bell, fantasy owners have to worry about the contract situation. And it's not just about if he shows up—it becomes a matter of how ready he'll be and how the Pittsburgh Steelers will use him: 

Even so, Bell is Bell until he shows otherwise, meaning he's a top pick in any format. Owners probably shouldn't expect another 321 carries like he had a year ago, but he's done more with less in the past and his catches in the passing game have continued to hover around the 75 mark when healthy. 

The trick with Bell is knowing the right time to jump off the ship. But it's not now, not as he tries to earn that big contract. While he's seen heavy usage over the past few seasons, he's still only 26 years old, making Bell a viable top overall pick. 

David Johnson

Matt York/Associated Press

Did you forger about David Johnson? 

It's somewhat understandable, as Johnson only appeared in one game with the Arizona Cardinals last year before going down with his season-ending injury. 

But it would be wise not to forget what Johnson did the year prior, looking like an MVP candidate while running for 1,239 yards and 16 touchdowns (yes, 16) on a 4.2 per-carry average. He also caught 80 passes for 879 yards and four touchdowns. And no, the 16 scores weren't too outlandish because during the year prior as a rookie he scored eight times on only 125 attempts. 

Johnson's 2016 outburst was easy to see coming if the Cardinals actually turned him loose. It's the same story in 2018, as the Cardinals will ask him to carry the entire offense again, this time with either Sam Bradford or rookie Josh Rosen under center. 

In the long lens of hindsight, the 2016 showing might be an anomaly. But it was a projectable outcome, and his hovering around or just below those same numbers, if he can play an entire season again, falls under the same umbrella. 

If Johnson hadn't suffered the injury, he might be the top overall pick in most drafts. This year is about his campaign to recapture that crown, and owners with the top pick should be comfortable banking a fantasy season on him. 

Honorable Mentions 

• Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
• Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers 
• Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints