
Preseason Superlatives for the 2018 NFL Rookie Class
Oh, the places they'll go!
About 300 first-year players will make final NFL rosters this weekend. And soon after that, their dreams will become reality as they suit up for the first regular-season professional football games of their lives.
Their professional rites of passage wouldn't be complete without some graduation-style superlatives.
Here is a select group who just might be off to particularly notable starts to their careers.
Most Likely to Land in Canton
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Indianapolis Colts G Quenton Nelson
In other words, Nelson is the member of this class who we've deemed most likely to succeed. The fact that he was drafted sixth overall as a pure guard is enough to give him an edge. Quarterbacks, pass-rushers and left tackles go that early, but interior offensive linemen hardly ever do.
It hasn't happened since the New Orleans Saints took Jim Dombrowski sixth overall in 1986. Yours truly wasn't born yet, and there's a decent chance you weren't either.
That proves how much more special Nelson is than those drafted around him. Nelson is just so damn powerful, so big, so technically proficient, so aggressive, versatile, nasty and intimidating. Pick a positive adjective and it'll work.
And he's already received glowing reviews in training camp and the preseason, with Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star hitting the nail on the head in a review of Nelson's first preseason game:
"The coaching staff was thoroughly impressed with the performance of first-round pick Quenton Nelson, who helped anchor a notable performance by the starting offensive line, particularly the interior positions. Nelson, who started at left guard, showed his power at the point of attack and was textbook when asked to pull—an aspect of his game the Colts have raved about.
"On one such play, running back Marlon Mack was able to pick up a five-yard gain despite defensive penetration because Nelson's seal block created a small crease. There also was an early pancake block that displayed all the nastiness we’ve come to expect from the team’s top draft selection."
Most Likely to Break a Rookie Record
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New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley
The rookie record we've identified for Barkley is Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing yardage mark of 1,808, set back in 1983. Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys fell just 177 yards short of that record in 2016, despite missing a game, and Barkley might be an even better prospect.
Barkley looks like the real deal, and he's got the power, bulk and experience to excel right away. He joins a rebuilt Giants offense that has a highly accomplished quarterback in Eli Manning, an elite wide receiver in Odell Beckham Jr., and—arguably most importantly—a suddenly respectable offensive line led by expensive new left tackle Nate Solder and second-round rookie guard Will Hernandez.
Elliott might still have benefited from a more talented line, but the ingredients are there for Barkley to dominate right out of the gate. He can certainly average 114 yards per game in 2018, which over the course of a full season would give him a new rookie record in terms of rushing yardage.
That's still easier said than done—Dickerson's mark has been hit only 18 times in NFL history, and Barkley has already missed preseason action because of a hamstring injury—but it's doable.
Most Likely to Pull a Kareem Hunt
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Denver Broncos RB Royce Freeman
Despite the fact 85 players were selected ahead of him in the 2017 NFL draft, Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt led the league with 1,327 rushing yards last season. Now we're thinking Freeman could be in line to become the next standout middle-round rookie back.
Like Hunt, the four-year starter at Oregon was a third-round pick. And like Hunt, he probably shouldn't have slid that far. The 6'0", 229-pounder averaged 5.9 yards per carry and scored 64 touchdowns during his four seasons in the Pac-12, and he's already making waves this summer.
Freeman has averaged 5.6 yards per attempt in three preseason games, scoring once in each outing, and he showed off his speed, power, vision and elusiveness on sweet a 24-yard touchdown run against the Washington first-team defense last week.
There's still a chance he'll have to share the load in the Denver backfield, but he's outplayed veterans Devontae Booker and De'Angelo Henderson Sr. by a wide margin thus far. If that continues, he'll be in line for a mega rookie campaign.
Most Likely to Pull a Marshon Lattimore
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Miami Dolphins DB Minkah Fitzpatrick
This is a little too perfect. Last year's Defensive Rookie of the Year, Marshon Lattimore of the New Orleans Saints, was the 11th overall pick in the 2017 draft. He outplayed higher-drafted defensive players Myles Garrett, Solomon Thomas and Jamal Adams in an Pro Bowl campaign.
This year's Defensive Rookie of the Year just might be Fitzpatrick, who also went 11th overall and who could be in line to outplay higher-drafted defensive players Bradley Chubb, Roquan Smith and Denzel Ward in 2018.
The Chuck Bednarik and Jim Thorpe Award winner is certainly ready after coming off three seasons as a starter in the best conference in college football. And he has a natural edge because of his positional versatility. Fitzpatrick has been all over the field throughout the preseason, earning a role as the starting nickel corner.
Chubb is the league's top Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, but he'll have to escape Von Miller's shadow in Denver. Smith doesn't play a sexy position, Ward doesn't have Fitzpatrick's measurables and the Alabama product has been garnering strong reviews of late.
Watch out.
Undrafted Rookie Most Likely to Become a Star
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Pittsburgh Steelers LB Ola Adeniyi
There's something about Adeniyi, beyond the incredible resemblance he bears to Steelers great James Harrison. Like Harrison, Adeniyi is an undersized undrafted outside linebacker from a MAC program who wears No. 92. Unlike Harrison, Adeniyi has made a major impact right off the bat.
Not only has the former Toledo standout been shining on the practice field, but he has also delivered in preseason action with a strip sack against the Philadelphia Eagles and another sack against the Tennessee Titans.
It was a little odd that Adeniyi went undrafted after recording 8.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss as a junior at Toledo, but he now has a chance to become another Harrison for a team that could use the help at that position. And even if he doesn't dominate in 2018, it's clear the 20-year-old has a much higher ceiling than a typical undrafted rookie.
Most Likely to Have Success Outside of Football
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Arizona Cardinals QB Josh Rosen
That's not to say that Rosen won't have immense success inside of football, but he hasn't been shy about his feelings beyond the football world, and it appears he has the skills and mentality to make a career for himself in media, entertainment or even politics.
He talks a big game. His college coach told Chuck Schilken of the L.A. Times that rosen "needs to be challenged intellectually so he doesn't get bored." He once had a hot tub in his dorm. He's been vocal about NCAA amateurism rules. And he refuses to back down from his public stance on Donald Trump.
Rosen is smart and outspoken, and as he becomes more established on and off the field, he'll likely become more emboldened. He's the kind of guy who needs more than football and will likely find non-football outlets for himself after—or even during—his pro career.
Most Likely to Make a Huge Impact in the 2019 Playoffs
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Los Angeles Chargers S Derwin James
This could be Chubb, Nelson, Barkley or rookie quarterbacks Josh Allen or Sam Darnold, but none of their teams are contenders. It could be Saints pass-rusher Marcus Davenport, but he hasn't been healthy. It could be New England Patriots running back Sony Michel, but you never know what to expect from New England at that position. I thought long and hard about Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley, but he has struggled quite a bit this month.
Few other prime draft picks are guaranteed to play significant roles on good teams this season, but James and the Chargers could be a different story. As we noted in the spring, the Florida State product is bigger, just as fast, more physical and maybe even more versatile than the higher-drafted Fitzpatrick.
James had a beautiful interception of Drew Brees in the Chargers' third preseason game, and he's been confirmed as a starter at the safety position for a team that has the talent to finally break through and make a run in the wide-open AFC West.
Most Unpredictable Rookie
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Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson
Jackson has the athletic ability to become a superstar quarterback, which is why he was a first-round pick. But he's plagued by legitimate red flags, which is why he was the final selection of that round.
The Louisville product posted a 134.6 passer rating in Baltimore's dress rehearsal preseason matchup with the Dolphins, and he's already rushed for 111 yards and two touchdowns this preseason, but he's completed just 47.2 percent of his passes. And that's a concern, because his accuracy (or lack thereof) is a significant potential problem after he completed just 57 percent of his passes in the ACC.
There's a boom-or-bust dynamic with every player who comes into this league, particularly at the quarterback position. But as an incredibly enticing yet raw player who relies heavily on his athletic ability, Jackson is as likely to be out of the league in three years as he is to become a perennial All-Pro.
Will he become Michael Vick or Johnny Manziel? Could go either way, but it probably won't be something in between.
Most Undervalued Rookie
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Green Bay Packers CB Josh Jackson
How in the world did Jackson slide into Round 2? The dude picked off eight passes as a junior at Iowa, scoring twice on interception returns while recording 18 passes defensed. But he wasn't a first-round pick, maybe because there were fears that he's a one-year wonder following a so-so performance at the NFL Scouting Combine.
But he's picked up this preseason where he left off in 2017. He's already got two pick-sixes under his belt, although the second was nullified by a penalty against teammate Herb Waters. And according to Pro Football Focus, a league-low 16.7 percent of the passes thrown into his coverage were caught during the first two weeks of the preseason.
The 22-year-old is still fighting for playing time with several recent high draft picks as well as veterans Tramon Williams, Davon House and Quinten Rollins, but if he keeps this up, it'll be hard for the Packers to keep him off the field. He's a 45th overall pick with top-10 talent, making him the most undervalued member of this class.
Most Likely to Become a Coach After Playing
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Chicago Bears LB Roquan Smith
Smith was a team captain at Georgia, where he proved to be a natural leader almost immediately. He's a hell of a linebacker with a bright future on the field, but those leadership traits and his high football IQ make him a strong candidate to enter the coaching realm when his playing career is through.
There are a lot of bright young leaders in this class, and it wouldn't be surprising to see many of them in headsets in a decade or two, but Smith tops that list.
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