Fantasy Football 2018: Rankings for Rookies, Sleepers and Players to Avoid

One of the most intriguing aspects of any fantasy football draft is where the rookies are taken. While fantasy is always a guessing game at some point, rookies provide way more uncertainties, as they've never played in an NFL game. Rookies fully test a fantasy player's ability to project going forward.

So, let me help. Alongside the top 50 overall rankings, I'll zoom in more closely on the rookies, examining the sleepers and players you should avoid in this year's class. 

Top 50 Rankings (Rookies Italicized)

1. Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams

2. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

3. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

4. David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals

5. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants

6. Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

7. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

8. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

9. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans

10. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants

11. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

12. Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Rams

13. Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

14. Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

15. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

16. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

17. Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

18. Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears

19. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts 

20. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

21. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings

22. Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

23. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

24. Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders

25. Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings

26. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals

27. Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

28. LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills

29. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

30. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

31. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

32. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

33. Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

34. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

35. Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49ers

36. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers

37. Derrius Guice, RB, Washington

38. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

39. Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings

40. Jay Ajayi, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

41. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

42. Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

43. Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans

44. Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns

45. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

46. Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears

47. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos

48. Kenyan Drake, RB, Miami Dolphins

49. Alex Collins, RB, Baltimore Ravens

50. Chris Hogan, WR, New England Patriots

Rookie Analysis

As you can see, I'm not super high on this rookie class from a fantasy perspective, with only two in my top 50. Let's go through this by position.

Quarterback

Ken Blaze/Associated Press

Avoid this class in redraft leagues.

Baker Mayfield may eventually become the starter in Cleveland, but he's going to have to beat out Tyrod Taylor. Lamar Jackson will likely be used occasionally, but it's hard to imagine Baltimore giving up on Joe Flacco this season. Sam Darnold has to beat out Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater. Sam Bradford will be the starter in Arizona over Josh Rosen. Josh Allen is a project in Buffalo.

Plus, rookie quarterbacks tend to have an extremely steep learning curve. Every once in a while, a rookie quarterback posts big numbers, like Deshaun Watson last year before he got hurt or Dak Prescott in 2016. But in general, rookie quarterbacks struggle, especially from a fantasy perspective. Most of last year's class did. 

Mitchell Trubisky didn't start until Week 5 and posted 15 or more fantasy points just three times. Patrick Mahomes spent the year on the bench behind Alex Smith. DeShone Kizer...was a mess. 

What about the year before? 

Jared Goff only played in seven games during his rookie season, throwing five touchdowns and seven interceptions. Carson Wentz threw for 3,782 yards, but his 16 touchdowns and 14 interceptions wasn't great for fantasy owners. Paxton Lynch barely played. Christian Hackenberg has yet to take an NFL snap. Only Prescott truly hit from the Class of 2016 among quarterbacks.

Yes, it's possible that one of the quarterbacks from this year's class will hit. If I had to bet on one, it would probably be Darnold. But generally speaking, if I'm drafting a rookie quarterback it is in a dynasty or keeper league with the long view in mind. 

In redraft leagues, I'd only consider taking a flyer on Darnold or Mayfield as a QB2, and likely only if I had a top player like Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers as my QB1. If I had more of an average starter at quarterback, I'd look to add a safer QB2.

Running Back

Steve Helber/Associated Press

Running backs, on the other hand, traditionally have a faster learning curve. I'm high on Saquon Barkley, for instance, as I believe he has the skill-set to impact an offense in every facet, akin to Le'Veon Bell or Todd Gurley. He should be a stud instantly.

Derrius Guice, meanwhile, has talent in spades and is the front-runner to win the starting job in Washington. While Chris Thompson will handle much of the third-down work once he returns from injury, it wouldn't be surprising to see Guice hit 1,000 yards in his rookie campaign. 

Those aren't the only rookies you should be focused on. Players like Royce Freeman in Denver, Rashaad Penny in Seattle, Ronald Jones in Tampa Bay, Sony Michel in New England and Nick Chubb in Cleveland are potential sleepers.

Of this bunch, I'd focus on Freeman and Jones as players with the potential to sneak into top-20 range, mostly due to opportunity. Devontae Booker has never seized the job in Denver, with a feature back role ripe for the taking. Expect Freeman to snag it. And in Tampa Bay, Jones simply has more home-run potential than a guy like Peyton Barber and should see a lot of touches this season. 

Penny, meanwhile, will likely split carries with Chris Carson, limiting his upside. Michel is in a full-blown committee in New England, while Chubb is vying for snaps with Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson.

So, among the rookies, Barkley and Guice are the two players to aggressively pursue on draft day, while Freeman and Jones have excellent sleeper potential. They aren't quite top-50 players for me, but each should be off the board right around the sixth round and considered flex players with RB2 potential.

Penny is a player I'd start considering around the seventh round, while Michel and Chubb are players I'd target as RB4s.

Wide Receiver

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

Like quarterback, rookie wide receivers often face a steep learning curve. Last year's first-round picks at wideout, Tennessee's Corey Davis, Los Angeles Chargers' Mike Williams and Cincinnati's John Ross, didn't make a fantasy impact at all.

Of last year's rookie wideouts, only JuJu Smith-Schuster (ranked 15th among wideouts) and Cooper Kupp (27th) had a consistent fantasy impact.

This year's wideout group could struggle to make an impact, too, though there are players worth keeping an eye on. D.J. Moore was the first wideout off the board in this year's draft and could make a splash in Carolina, though players like Greg Olsen, Christian McCaffrey, Curtis Samuel, Devin Funchess and Torrey Smith are going to get a lot of looks.

Calvin Ridley comes into the NFL in a great situation with a veteran in Matt Ryan throwing him the ball. Still, Julio Jones is the top dog in Atlanta's passing game, while Mohamed Sanu will get his touches as well. In Denver, Courtland Sutton will be third on the pecking order behind Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. 

If I were seeking sleepers, I'd look at players like Dante Pettis in San Francisco and Christian Kirk in Arizona. Pettis doesn't have the talented pass-catchers ahead of him like some of the other rookies in this class, with Jimmy Garoppolo throwing him passes. Larry Fitzgerald is still the main man in Arizona, but Kirk should emerge as Sam Bradford's second option. 

If you want rookie sleepers, gamble on Pettis or Kirk. As for the other options, they'll have more value in dynasty and keeper leagues.  In redraft leagues, proceed with more caution and don't target the rookie wideouts until deep in the middle rounds at earliest.

Tight End

David Richard/Associated Press

Tight end is a tough position to find value from, period, and it's no different among rookies. Hayden Hurst is one of your best options to find a sleeper at tight end, as only Nick Boyle stands in his way for playing time. Boyle is the better blocker, though Hurst's ability as a pass-catcher means the two should share the field at times and certainly will share the snaps.

Baltimore hasn't had a dynamic weapon at tight end since Dennis Pitta in his pre-injury prime. Hurst may not hit major heights in 2018, but as a TE2 with TE1 upside, he's worth taking a flier on in the later rounds. 

Miami's Mike Gesicki might be an even better sleeper candidate, as he has the potential to be awesome in the red zone. If he wins a starting job and is consistent in Miami's passing game, he could sneak into the low TE1 conversation. For now, however, he's an upside play and a late TE2.

Finally, Dallas Goedert is clearly behind Zach Ertz on the depth chart in Philadelphia, but the Eagles run a number of different sets and player packages, utilizing two tight ends in some of them.

Those circumstances, especially in the red zone, is where Goedert could really stake his claim. Philly should generate plenty of red-zone trips this season with the talent they have on offense, and Goedert could be the beneficiary.

He's purely a touchdown play at this point (which is always risky), but one with serious upside. Keep him in mind as a TE2.