NBA Finals 2018: Latest Odds, Matchup Predictions Before Historic Game 7s
The fourth consecutive NBA Finals showdown between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors is in danger of falling apart.
The Cavaliers have been tested by the Boston Celtics in the first six games of the Eastern Conference final, while the Warriors were pushed to Game 7 by the Houston Rockets.
The pair of Game 7s taking place Sunday and Monday mark the first time since 1979 that both conference championship series reached the final game, per ESPN's Rachel Nichols:
Cleveland is up first in defending its conference championship, as it travels to Boston Sunday, while the Warriors must win on the road in Houston in order to have a chance at repeating their NBA title.
Odds to Win NBA Finals (via OddsShark)
Golden State: -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Houston:+300 (bet $100 to win $300)
Boston: +800
Cleveland: +1200
Matchup Predictions
Boston over Cleveland
The Celtics appear to be in perfect position to make their first NBA Finals appearance since 2010, when they lost to the Los Angeles Lakers in six games.
Boston's average margin of victory at home against the Cavaliers is 17 points, with each of its three victories coming by double digits.
In the three games in Boston, the Celtics held the Cavaliers under 100 points, and the visitors failed to reach 85 points in Games 1 and 5.
In Game 5, the Celtics held LeBron James to 26 points, while Kevin Love was the only other Cleveland player to score in double digits.
While it may seem like Love's injury absence is going to hurt Cleveland, the Cavs have actually been better without the forward on the floor, per ESPN Stats & Info:
Since James can't do everything by himself, the Cleveland supporting cast has to step up like it did in Game 6, as George Hill added 20 points to James' 46.
Jeff Green and Larry Nance both reached double digits as well in Game 6, but now the Celtics have time to make adjustments to defending the other facets of the Cleveland offense.
Celtics head coach Brad Stevens displayed throughout the postseason he's one of the smartest minds on a NBA bench, and he might be the X-factor for his team once again.
The offensive strategy seems to be simple for the Celtics, as five players are averaging over 10 points per game in the series, with Jaylen Brown leading the pack at 20.8 points per contest.
If Brown, Jayson Tatum and Terry Rozier thrive in and around the three-point line, it would allow Al Horford to take advantage of Love's absence and establish dominance in the frontcourt.
The key for the Celtics comes on defense, where they must find a way to limit James' shot-making potential while quieting the other four players on the hardwood with the superstar.
As long as Boston is able to hold James under 30 points, it will force someone else to make big shots, which is something we haven't seen on a consistent basis from the Cavaliers in the postseason.
Golden State over Houston
Even if the Rockets are playing stellar basketball in Game 7, the Warriors will still be seen as the favorite because of their track record.
Golden State brought the momentum back in its favor by way of a 115-86 Game 6 victory at Oracle Arena Saturday.
Klay Thompson featured in the starring role for Golden State, as he knocked down nine three-pointers on his way to a game high of 35 points.
As if Thompson's production wasn't enough, Stephen Curry scored 29 points with five three-pointers and Kevin Durant picked up 23 points, 10 of which were earned at the free-throw line.
Houston had its share of star performances as well, with James Harden's 32 points accompanied by three double-digit scorers who didn't reach the 20-point plateau.
Just like the Cavs, the Rockets enter Game 7 short-handed, as Chris Paul missed Game 6 with a right hamstring injury.
Although the chances of Paul playing in Game 7 are slim, the Rockets are trying to do everything to put him on the court, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski:
Eric Gordon, Clint Capela and Trevor Ariza have to be the X-factors for the Rockets Monday night at home, and if they are able to keep pace with the Warriors, it will set Harden up with a chance to win the game in the fourth quarter.
While that sounds like an ideal strategy, the Warriors have plenty of players on their roster capable of keeping up with, and eventually beating, Harden in a head-to-head showdown during the final few minutes.
Given the experience of the Warriors, and the amount of options to turn to in the clutch, it's hard to pick against them with a spot in the NBA Finals on the line.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from Basketball Reference.
