Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors: Game 6 Odds, NBA Betting Pick

The second-seeded Golden State Warriors hope to stave off elimination and force a Game 7 when they host the top-seeded Houston Rockets as double-digit favorites at the sportsbooks for Game 6 of the NBA Western Conference Finals on Saturday.

The Rockets won Game 5 on Thursday 98-94 but will be without star point guard Chris Paul, who suffered a hamstring injury after scoring 20 points, per the team's Twitter account.

NBA point spread: The Warriors opened as 10.5-point favorites; the total is at 213.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 106.4-103.5, Warriors. NBA picks on every game.

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Why the Rockets Can Cover the Spread

Houston was able to win the past two games by playing outstanding defense, which is surprising for a team coached by Mike D'Antoni. Nevertheless, the Rockets will likely look to slow down the tempo again and rely on NBA MVP favorite James Harden to turn in his best performance of the series.

Harden went 0-for-11 from three-point range in Game 5 and 5-for-21 from the field overall, yet Houston was still able to come through. That is because the Rockets limited the Warriors to just 34 points combined in the fourth quarters of Games 4 and 5, and a similar defensive effort should help them cover here.

Why the Warriors Can Cover the Spread

Not only is Paul out for Houston, but Andre Iguodala is hoping to return for Golden State after missing the past two games with a knee injury. Iguodala's absence has been huge, and you can see why he was named the 2015 NBA Finals MVP for how he defended LeBron James in that series en route to the championship.

Iguodala's defense on Harden will be critical to the Warriors not only winning but covering the spread too. With the fans at Oracle Arena also knowing this may be the last home game of the year, look for them to support their team and show why they help provide such an advantage.

Smart Betting Pick

You have to go back to the 2016 NBA Finals to find the last time Golden State lost two straight home games in the postseason. The Warriors blew a 3-1 series lead during that time to the Cleveland Cavaliers, who ended up winning their first championship.

Since then, Golden State is 16-1 straight up and 8-8-1 against the spread in their past 17 home playoff games, according to the OddsShark NBA Database. While their spread record does not look impressive, three of the failed covers took place against the Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz last year, when they were favorites of 13 points or more each time and still won by double digits.

Look for Harden's shooting woes to continue as Golden State wins and covers Game 6.

NBA betting trends

Houston is 8-4 ATS in its past 12 games.

The total has gone under in seven of Golden State's past eight games.

Golden State is 4-9 ATS in its past 13 games at home.

All NBA odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.