NBA Finals 2018: Predictions, Championship Odds for Remaining Teams
The NBA's conference finals have not fully cooperated with the Finals rematch narrative most onlookers have scripted since July. It simply may take more effort than anticipated to reach the Association's familiar conclusion.
For the first time since its first-round series with the Indiana Pacers, a LeBron James-led team is in jeopardy of not capturing the Eastern Conference crown. Even after seizing Game 3 on Saturday night, the Cleveland Cavaliers trail the precocious Boston Celtics, who still boast home-court advantage.
In the Western Conference Finals, the Golden Warriors and Houston Rockets traded lopsided victories at Toyota Center. Sunday night's Game 3 will go a long way to deciphering Houston's upset chances.
Before the series shifts to Oracle Arena, Las Vegas remains unfazed by the Rockets' 127-105 Game 2 triumph. According to OddsShark, the Warriors still tower over the pack as overwhelming favorites to secure their third championship in four years.
Odds to Win NBA Championship
Golden State Warriors: 5-13
Houston Rockets: 13-4
Boston Celtics: 9-1
Cleveland Cavaliers: 12-1
Odds updated as of Saturday night, prior to the Eastern Conference's Game 3.
Predictions
Western Conference Finals (tied 1-1): Warriors over Rockets in six games
Eastern Conference Finals (BOS leads 2-1): Cavaliers over Celtics in seven games
NBA Finals: Warriors over Cavaliers in four games
Should the Warriors Worry?
"I can't do it by myself," James Harden told reporters following Houston's Game 1 loss. "We need everybody to be at their top play."
Message received. Although the MVP candidate went 3-of-15 from downtown, the Rockets clobbered the Warriors on Wednesday night. Rather than Harden and Chris Paul carrying the conference's No. 1 seed, Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker and Trevor Ariza simultaneously caught fire.
ESPN Stats & Info tracked the trio's unlikely scoring bonanza:
Tucker, a defensive specialist with a career 35.6 three-point percentage, made five of his six long-distance shots. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, who averaged a combined 7.3 three-point makes during the regular season, drained three of their dozen attempts.
That's not a sustainable blueprint to eliminating the reigning champs. Tucker, Gordon and Ariza are unlikely to each set a 2018 postseason high again, let alone thrice more.
Curry's struggles, however, will manifest heightened health concerns. In six games since returning from a knee injury that sidelined him for over a month, the two-time MVP has registered 22.0 points per game with an uncharacteristically pedestrian 36.2 three-point percentage (17-of-42).
Following a rough Game 2 outing, Curry assured The Undefeated's Marc J. Spears that his knee is not to blame.
"I feel good,” Curry said. "I feel good. It's something that you can't shake off because of how recent the injury was. But I'm out there. I feel great, and I'm not worried about anything with my knee. I keep saying the same thing. I feel good."
One can reasonably expect the all-time great shooter, if healthy, to rediscover his form in front of Golden State's raucous home fans. The bigger concern is how he will fare on the other end. As ESPN.com's Chris Haynes noted, the Rockets went 7-of-15 in 23 Game 2 possessions against Curry, whom they have targeted on 15 isolation plays this series.
Although far from a innovative strategy, the knee concerns could cause flashbacks to the 2016 NBA Finals, when he shot 15-of-42 from three-point territory in the final three loses while Cleveland ran him ragged on the other side. Before that letdown, however, Golden State engineered its own 3-1 rally over the Oklahoma City Thunder when a previously slumping Curry notched a combined 98 points in three wins.
Besides, he isn't the only superstar enduring shooting struggles. Harden has gone 14-of-56 from three-point range over Houston's past six games. Yet he is still registering 29.4 points per postseason game—one point behind his regular-season average—because of his unparalleled ability to draw fouls.
He will need the referees to avoid favorable home officiating. While the Warriors ended the season with identical 29-12 home and road records, they are a perfect 15-0 in postseason games at Oracle Arena since adding Kevin Durant in 2016.
His signing may have initially typified the rich getting needlessly richer, but the Rockets would probably be favored if Harden did not have to combat his format Thunder teammate. The superteam's rock, Durant has tallied no fewer than 22 points in a dozen playoff games while shooting 50.4 percent from the floor.
A Game 3 victory would reinforce Las Vegas' full confidence that Golden State will return to the NBA Finals. Another Houston triumph, meanwhile, would quickly force everyone to reconsider the status quo.
