Are the Texans the Biggest Boom-or-Bust Team in the NFL This Year?

The Houston Texans were one of only four NFL teams to win four or fewer games in 2017. Only four teams ranked lower when it came to Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), according to Football Outsiders, and only four had a worse points differential than the Texans' minus-98.

But there's a lot of hype surrounding the Texans heading into the 2018 season, largely because that sorry 2017 campaign looked and felt like an aberration. After all, Houston was a playoff team in 2016 and had posted winning records in three consecutive seasons prior to encountering Murphy's Law last year. 

"Whatever can go wrong, will go wrong" could have been the tagline for the 2017 Texans, who were hit harder by injuries than every AFC team other than the Miami Dolphins, according to Football Outsiders. 

A defense that led the NFL in yards per game allowed in 2016 figured to be unconquerable with three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt returning from an injury-derailed 2016 campaign. Instead, Watt suffered a season-ending left tibial plateau fracture in early October. 

From that point forward, a D that gave up 14 or fewer points in two of its first four games surrendered a league-high average of 29 points per outing.  

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

It also looked as though Houston had found a franchise quarterback in rookie first-round pick Deshaun Watson, who threw for 19 touchdowns over his first seven games. However, Watson suffered a torn ACL during an early November practice, bringing his debut campaign to a premature end. 

From that point forward, an offense that scored 33 or more points in five consecutive games with Watson under center averaged only 13.6 per outing with Tom Savage and T.J. Yates at the helm. 

A Houston team that might have been a Super Bowl contender with a healthy Watt and Watson lost eight of its last nine games without those two. Six of those eight losses came by nine or more points. 

But it's spring now. The slate is relatively clean for a Houston team that has now had a chance to reset and rehabilitate. And Texans head coach Bill O'Brien is confident his two highest-profile players will be ready to play major roles from the get-go this fall. 

"Doing a good job in his rehab, I think he's on schedule to be able to participate in training camp," O'Brien said of Watson on NFL Network on Monday, per Frank Schwab of Yahoo Sports. "We're excited about that. We've had a good four-week session with him in the offseason program."

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

And Watt? 

"He's doing a lot of great things on and off the field, relative to being able to be back and ready to go," O'Brien added, according to Schwab. "... I would never bet against J.J. Watt. He's going to be back, he's going to be at full strength, and he's going to help us win a lot of games."

There's plenty of promise in Houston, but also plenty of uncertainty. If all goes right, the Texans could be in the Super Bowl. If Murphy's Law strikes again, they could find themselves struggling to clean the slate again at this point next year. Just consider all of the realistically feasible scenarios.

Boom-case scenario: Watson returns in September and picks up where he left off in an offensive system that has been completely revamped to better complement the young quarterback's unique skill set. 

Bust-case scenario: Watson either doesn't return early enough to make a major impact or returns but isn't the same, a la Robert Griffin III in 2013. Watson was the league's fifth-highest-rated passer and had an NFL-high 21 passing and rushing touchdowns before his rookie season ended abruptly, but all we have to work with is a seven-game sample. A sophomore slump is a possibility, especially if he has trouble getting acclimated to that new offense. 

Boom-case scenario: A few years removed from a 17.5-sack, All-Pro season, Watt has better luck with injuries after missing all but eight games over a two-season span. The most dominant football player in the world between 2012 and 2015 recaptures that magic just ahead of his 30th birthday. 

Bust-case scenario: It winds up not being a coincidence that Watt has missed the majority of the last two seasons. His 29-year-old body is already breaking down after he started his career with five consecutive 16-game campaigns. He's out of gas, and he either can't stay healthy or is ineffective. 

And the potential for volatility doesn't stop there.

Only a 😞 emoji can sum up what happened with arguably the league's worst offensive line last season, so new Texans general manager Brian Gaine gave that unit a makeover. Houston will hope that free-agent acquisition Senio Kelemete excels in what's supposed to be his first full season as a starter at the age of 28, that newbie Zach Fulton fits in well at the other guard spot and that March pickup Seantrel Henderson can succeed in Houston after he failed in Buffalo. The Texans also need youngsters Julie'n Davenport and Nick Martin to play better after they struggled in 2017. 

Watson, top receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller and high-quality backs Lamar Miller and D'Onta Foreman give the Texans as much promising skill-position talent as almost any team in the NFL, but Watson and Foreman are coming back from significant injuries. That group also needs to be almost perfect if the line has as much trouble in 2018 as it did last season. 

On the other side of the ball, Watt and Jadeveon Clowney could make up one of the best defensive duos in the league. However, there are a lot of question marks even if both of those guys remain healthy and effective together for the first time since they became teammates four years ago.

Top cornerbacks Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph are a combined 64 years old, while linebackers Whitney Mercilus and Benardrick McKinney are trying to bounce back from tough seasons. Mercilus is also returning from a torn pectoral that cut his 2017 campaign short. 

And then there's Tyrann Mathieu, who could mask a number of potential issues if he performs to the best of his ability in Houston. The 26-year-old safety hasn't done that since 2015, though.

Mathieu was a first-team All-Pro that year, but injuries wrecked his 2016 campaign, and he wasn't the same player in 2017. That explains why the Texans were able to sign him to a one-year, $7 million prove-it deal after Arizona made him a salary-cap casualty.

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Imagine the Texans defense with Watt, Clowney and Mathieu at their best. Now imagine that same unit if Watt and Mathieu don't produce.

Imagine the offense with Watson in his early 2017 form. Now imagine that same unit with him looking like a shell of his former self.

Does any team in the NFL have as large of a gap between its best- and worst-case scenario?

Even Houston's unstable division extends the chasm separating the team's maximum potential from its minimum expectation. Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans are praying that their quarterbacks will turn the corner as they battle higher expectations in 2018. The Indianapolis Colts might not be as talented, but a healthy Andrew Luck has the ability to single-handedly hijack that division. 

The Texans are good enough to destroy the AFC South, but they were bad enough last year to lose five of their six divisional games. 

The Jags and Titans are too talented to completely nosedive, as are the New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons when you look beyond the AFC South. But only the Patriots, Steelers, Eagles, Rams, Vikings, Saints, Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers have better odds to win Super Bowl LIII than Houston does, according to OddsShark.

The 49ers won their final five games last season, and the Packers are always a contender with Aaron Rodgers under center. 

The Texans have it in them, but no other Super Bowl hopeful is relying as heavily on multiple star players facing considerable obstacles heading into the 2018 season. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon