NFL's Most Likely Candidates for a Sophomore Slump in 2018

Top rookies such as Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Jordan Howard and Eli Apple all suffered through various degrees of the sophomore slump during the 2017 NFL season. 

The phenomenon can happen for all sorts of reasons, including injuries, off-the-field factors, changes to the roster or depth chart, a tougher schedule and increased competition from a league that suddenly has a full year of tape on a star rookie. 

While most young players make a big jump between their first and second seasons, breaking out as a rookie sometimes leads to regression a year later. 

The following 2017 rookies are in danger of a sophomore slump in 2018. 

RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars

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Leonard Fournette rushed for 1,040 yards, scored 10 total touchdowns, produced five 100-yard games, caught 36 passes and was the engine for the NFL's most productive rushing offense during the 2017 regular season. 

However, a few factors are worrisome as he heads into his sophomore season. 

Fournette averaged only 3.9 yards per carry and was held under four yards per carry during 10 of his 13 regular-season starts, so he was fairly hit or miss. During his three games in the playoffs, his average dipped to less than 3.5 yards per carry. 

The 2017 fourth overall pick battled through a recurring ankle injury for long stretches of his rookie season, which is a troubling trend that dates back to his LSU days. Fournette seemed to lack juice whenever he was dealing with the balky ankle. 

Just as importantly, the Jaguars were often fine without him.

As Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk noted, Jacksonville went 3-0 and rushed for more yards per game during the three games Fournette missed last season. Backups Chris Ivory, T.J. Yeldon and Corey Grant combined to produce 883 rushing yards and average 4.4 yards per carry in 2017.

Ivory is gone, but might the Jaguars lean more on Yeldon and Grant to lessen the load on Fournette and keep his ankle healthy? His sophomore slump might not be severe, but his inefficiency and injury issues could make it difficult for Fournette to reach his rookie numbers. 

RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs

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It's tough for a running back to repeat a rare rookie season.

Like Ezekiel Elliott the year before, Hunt took the NFL by storm in his first season, rushing for 1,327 yards, winning the rushing title, scoring 11 total touchdowns and gaining 1,782 yards from scrimmage for the Chiefs.

Elliott went through a tumultuous offseason and ended up missing six games due to a suspension in 2017, so Hunt shouldn't have the same kind of off-the-field distractions going into his sophomore season. But he still appears poised for a slight regression, especially after the Chiefs swapped out starting quarterbacks and lost offensive coordinator Matt Nagy to the Chicago Bears. 

Defenses will likely key on Hunt and focus on containing him with a first-year starter under center. The Chiefs also return Spencer Ware from last year's season-ending injury, which could cut into Hunt's workload. 

Saying Hunt may take a step back isn't a knock on him; it's a realization of how difficult it would be for him to repeat his impressive rookie production. Hunt could endure a slight sophomore slump and still have a terrific season in 2018. 

QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

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Watson came out firing as a rookie in 2017, throwing 19 touchdown passes and rushing for two more during his first seven games for the Texans. Most expect him to pick up where he left off and state his case as one of the NFL's top young quarterbacks in 2018.

However, it wouldn't be surprising if Watson suffered through some growing pains as a sophomore.

The Clemson product is coming off a season-ending ACL injury, which could limit his effectiveness as a runner early on. He's also only seven games into his NFL career, and inexperience can be a high hurdle to clear for a young quarterback. 

The Texans open with three out of their first four games on the road, including a difficult trip to New England for the regular-season opener. Those games will test Watson early. 

Watson's performance during his first seven games suggests he has superstar upside, but he'll have to avoid some tricky roadblocks—and the fabled sophomore slump—during his second season. 

WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

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Any regression from Cooper Kupp in 2018 would be the direct result of an overall step back from the Rams offense, which scored a league-high 478 points last season. The NFC West champions play a decidedly more difficult schedule in 2018, which makes it tough to imagine the Rams averaging almost 30 points per game again this year. 

Kupp, a third-round pick in 2017, caught 62 passes and finished with a team-high 869 receiving yards, the second-most among rookie receivers. He'll be hard-pressed to repeat those numbers, especially if teams gain a step on head coach Sean McVay's offense and make life more difficult for quarterback Jared Goff. 

The addition of receiver Brandin Cooks, who takes the place of Sammy Watkins, might also cut into Kupp's workload. Watkins only saw 70 targets last season, while Cooks got 114 targets in New England in 2017 and has averaged 120 targets per season over the last three years.

Expect Cooks to steal a few of Kupp's targets in 2018, which could limit Kupp's production. 

RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

This has nothing to do with Alvin Kamara. He's super talented, plays in the perfect offense and is locked into an ideal role. If he's healthy in 2018, he'll produce more big numbers. 

But can he replicate his absurd efficiency numbers from last season?

Kamara averaged 6.1 yards per rushing attempt and 10.2 yards per reception, caught over 80 percent of his targets, scored 13 total touchdowns and produced almost 100 yards from scrimmage per game over a full 16-game schedule. Those are video game numbers. 

Expect opposing teams to put up a better fight in 2018. 

Also, don't count on Mark Ingram's four-game suspension to affect Kamara's workload, one way or another. Head coach Sean Payton already said the Saints aren't planning on giving all of Ingram's touches to Kamara. 

A full year's worth of tape should provide defenses with more answers in regard to how the Saints use Kamara, both as a runner and receiver. He'll be a focal point of every defensive game plan the Saints face. It'll be on Kamara and Payton to counter the adjustments.