2018 AFL Round 4 Betting Preview: Odds, Game Trends, Week Analysis

Before the AFL season began there was plenty of discussion and predictions about how close the competition was going to be, and considering Port Adelaide are the only team who remain unbeaten after just three rounds you would have to say that sentiment has been right on the money.

Of the 27 games played so far, 10 have been decided by under three goals, four of which were last weekend. The closest was Port's five-point win over Brisbane Lions, a game that can only be described as a great escape, considering the Lions won the wooden spoon last year.

The South Australian club head east to take on Essendon Bombers on Sunday at Etihad Stadium, and given their strong start to the season it's no surprise to seem them betting favourites at $1.63 AUD  to move to 4-0, according to AustralianGambling. That would be their best start to a season since 2013, when they lost at the semi-final stage.

While Port are flying, the Bombers, who were expected to make a run deep into the finals this season, have been poor so far, dropping two of their three games.

They were especially poor last Sunday, losing to the previously winless Western Bulldogs by 21 points. $2.29 is the quote you'll get if you like the Dons to upset Ken Hinkley's men on Sunday.

The round kicks off on Friday night when Port's cross-town rivals, Adelaide Crows, host Collingwood Magpies at the Adelaide Oval. The Magpies secured the first win of their campaign against Carlton Blues last week, but that hasn't stopped bookmakers from installing them as the third longest shot of the round, at $4.95.

The Crows haven't lost to Collingwood since Round 16 in 2013 and have never tasted defeat against this week's opponent at their fortress, the Adelaide Oval. That isn't expected to change this Friday, with just $1.18 on offer for the hosts to win their third game from four starts this year.

The following day the Greater Western Sydney Giants are at similarly short odds ($1.15) to beat the Fremantle Dockers ($5.50), while the Richmond Tigers are even shorter ($1.08) to defeat Brisbane ($8) at the MCG.

Just as that one is finishing up at the home of football, the Bulldogs ($3) host Sydney Swans ($1.39) just a few kilometres down the road at Etihad Stadium.

Sydney deserve to be favourites here, they have been impressive over the first three weeks, winning two of three, and last week's derby win over the Giants proved their Premiership credentials, a market in which they sit as a $6 favourite.

North Melbourne ($1.56) host Carlton Blues ($2.44) in Hobart on Saturday night, while Geelong Cats ($1.22) play their first home game of the year on Sunday night against the under-fire St Kilda Saints ($4.35).

West Coast Eagles are heavily favoured ($1.14) to beat Gold Coast Suns ($5.75), but the tightest betting match of the round comes up on Sunday at the MCG when Hawthorn Hawks ($2.16) host Melbourne Demons ($1.70).

So, while eight of the nine games have a clear favourite this weekend, as we've seen over the first three weeks, that doesn't mean the margins of the games will reflect those betting markets.