Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Odds, Analysis, NBA Betting Pick

The Denver Nuggets (43-35) will try to pull even with the Minnesota Timberwolves (44-34) in the Western Conference standings on Thursday when they host them as solid home favorites. The Nuggets are riding a three-game winning streak and sit one game out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the West, chasing both the Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans with one week left.

NBA point spread: The Nuggets opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total is at 226.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer:113.3-106.2, Nuggets (NBA picks on every game)

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Why the Timberwolves can cover the spread

Minnesota once looked like a solid bet to win the Northwest Division and now faces some pressure to get back to the postseason for the first time since 2004. The Timberwolves are hoping to get leading scorer Jimmy Butler back from a knee injury before the end of the regular season, although he is not expected to return for this game.

That said, they are hopeful they can still hang on to earn one of the last playoff spots despite going 8-8 straight up since Butler got hurt. The good news is Minnesota has won the past four meetings with Denver, going 2-2 against the spread, according to the OddsShark NBA Database, since dropping five straight in the series (1-4 ATS).

Why the Nuggets can cover the spread

This is one of the biggest remaining matchups for the Nuggets, who also close out the regular season by visiting the Timberwolves next Wednesday following a road game versus the Los Angeles Clippers and another home game against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Denver will likely need to go at least 3-1 in order to make it back to the postseason for the first time since 2013, so beating Minnesota in this spot at home is important to the team's playoff chances. A victory would be a huge boost to the confidence of the young Nuggets heading down the final stretch.

Smart betting pick

Denver closes out a key three-game homestand here and has failed to cover the spread in the first two games despite winning both, with each of them decided by just three points, capped by a 107-104 home victory against the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday. In fact, all of the wins during the current streak for the Nuggets have been decided by three points or less, which is a sign that they could be getting tired while making one last push for the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have not played since losing 121-97 to the Utah Jazz at home on Sunday, meaning they will be more well-rested. Take Minnesota to keep this one close, cover and possibly pull off the upset.

NBA betting trends

Minnesota is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games.

The total has gone over in 17 of Minnesota's last 23 games.

The total has gone over in 17 of Denver's last 25 games.

All NBA odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.