Expert Predictions for the 2018 NCAA Championship Game
The Michigan Wolverines and Villanova Wildcats will square off for the men's college basketball national championship Monday night in San Antonio.
But what should we expect from the capstone of this wildly unpredictable tournament?
Bleacher Report's college basketball experts—David Gardner, David Kenyon, Kerry Miller and C.J. Moore—have offered predictions on some of the biggest questions heading into Monday. Questions such as:
—What will be the most memorable moment of the night?
—Will Omari Spellman or Moritz Wagner win the battle of the three-point-shooting centers?
—Which player in the national championship becomes the biggest NBA star?
- And, of course, who wins?
Our experts are on the case to let you know.
Who Wins? How Does It Happen?
1 of 8
David Gardner—follow on Twitter @byDavidGardner
Villanova. For much of the past week, I've frequently referred to the Villanova Wildcats as the New England Patriots of college basketball. They are so well-prepared and so efficient in their execution that it's almost impossible to pick against them—and when they do lose, it's because of an otherworldly performance by their opponent. Villanova will ride one more hot shooting night from three to a second national championship in three years.
David Kenyon—follow on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR
Villanova celebrates the championship thanks to its high-powered offense. Michigan isn't at a major stylistic disadvantage, but Villanova is lethally efficient on the offensive end. Unless the Wildcats have an off night beyond the arc, they'll win the 2018 crown.
Kerry Miller—follow on Twitter @kerrancejames
Villanova is the clear favorite and my pick to win. However, this won't be anything like Saturday's game, when Villanova had basically already beaten Kansas by the time the media had returned from interviewing players from the first Final Four game. This one will be a back-and-forth affair for the first 30 minutes before the Wildcats finally hit a few three-point daggers midway through the second half to open things up a bit, winning by a final score of 78-71.
C.J. Moore—follow on Twitter @CJMooreHoops
Villanova wins. The Wildcats will slow down Moe Wagner. and they just have too much offense for Michigan to keep pace.
Who Will Be the Best Player on the Court?
2 of 8
Jalen Brunson. Villanova's junior floor general already has 22 minutes of title game experience. He'll make a much larger impact than the four points and one rebound he offered as a freshman against North Carolina. He's been stellar in this NCAA tournament run, and he'll cap his college career with a Final Four Most Outstanding Player Award.
David Kenyon
Mikal Bridges is by far the most talented player. He still hasn't played particularly well in the NCAA tournament other than the second half against Alabama, but that was also the only time Villanova really needed it, too. His two-way excellence will show up Monday night.
Kerry Miller
Jalen Brunson was my preseason pick to win the Wooden Award, and he was, in fact, the best player in the country this season. There's no reason for that to change now. He doesn't always put up massive numbers, but no one controls the game as well as he does. And you just know he's going to have a couple of big moments after which Twitter blows up with "How in the world is Jalen Brunson not a projected first-round pick?!" reactions.
C.J. Moore
Jalen Brunson. His numbers didn't jump off the page against Kansas, but he controlled the game. He'll do the same against Michigan, motivated by the knowledge that Zavier Simpson is known as a lockdown defender.
Who Has the Edge: Nova's 3-Point Bombers or U-M's Perimeter 'D'?
3 of 8
Villanova. This will be the matchup that determines the game. Michigan has been well-coached defensively this year, but Villanova's perimeter offense is too potent. It's not only that the Wildcats have incredible shooters, but they also have such a variety of ways to get open looks. They may not break the record for threes they just set against Kansas, but they'll hit enough to win the title.
David Kenyon
As the saying goes, good offense beats good defense. Michigan rightfully should feel confident about its perimeter defense, but seven different Villanova players are capable of being a problem. On paper, good offense has the edge.
Kerry Miller
I expect something of a stalemate here. Villanova averages 11.6 makes on 29.0 three-point attempts per game, while Michigan allows 5.3 makes on just 16.2 attempts. The Wolverines won't be able to stop the Wildcats from shooting, but there will be more contested shots than usual. Villanova will end up shooting 9-of-27, and both teams will be OK with that result.
C.J. Moore
Villanova's three-point bombers. Michigan's defense is great, but it hasn't faced anything like what Villanova can put on the floor.
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
The X-Factor Will Be...?
4 of 8
Moe Wagner. If the Wolverines win, it will almost certainly be because of Wagner. He has stepped up in so many of their biggest moments this season, and none will be more important than Monday night.
David Kenyon
Zavier Simpson. Limiting Jalen Brunson is an essential part of the challenging blueprint to defeat Villanova, and Michigan's point guard is an outstanding defender. If Simpson can add 10 points, that should at least keep the Wolverines in position to pull off the upset.
Kerry Miller
Free throws. Neither team gets to the line a ton, but Villanova is drastically better at converting (77.9 percent) than Michigan is (66.2 percent). Take it to the bank that you will see those percentages about a thousand times in the final four minutes as one team is trying to salt away the game one point at a time.
C.J. Moore
Villanova's ability to switch everything. It's going to be difficult for Michigan to get the pick-and-pop looks it usually gets because of Nova's switchable defenders who are comfortable guarding multiple positions.
Who Has the Bigger Game: Nova's Omari Spellman or Michigan's Moritz Wagner?
5 of 8
Omari Spellman. Statistically speaking, Wagner will probably end up with better production. But Nova doesn't need Spellman to be the centerpiece of its offense, and that should free him to hassle Wagner relentlessly on defense and wrestle him for every rebound. If Villanova continues its hot shooting streak and Michigan is forced to play somewhat smaller, Spellman wins by default.
David Kenyon
Given the number of expected possessions, both Spellman and Wagner should be in double-double territory. While I think Wagner scores more points, I believe Spellman will have a more efficient shooting day.
Kerry Miller
My money is on Wagner. I'll even go so far as to predict that Wagner is named the Most Outstanding Player, win or lose. If it does happen in a loss, it would be the first time since Hakeem Olajuwon (then known as Akeem Olajuwon) in 1983, but Wagner is already in an exclusive club with "The Dream" and Larry Bird. They are the only players in the past 40 years to record at least 20 points and 15 rebounds in a Final Four game. And for this game to be as close as it should be, Michigan is going to need another Herculean effort from its stretch 5.
C.J. Moore
Spellman. Wagner is going to have a tough time dealing with Villanova's big man on the perimeter.
The Most Memorable Moment Will Be…?
6 of 8
When Sister Jean pulls a Drake and appears in a Villanova sweater pregame.
David Kenyon
The final buzzer. I'm picking Villanova and not expecting the final minute to be particularly competitive. However, that doesn't mean a blowout, either. When the buzzer sounds, it'll give Jay Wright his second championship and silence any lingering doubters about the powerhouse.
Kerry Miller
With around nine minutes left in the second half, either Donte DiVincenzo or Mikal Bridges will put either Duncan Robinson or Moritz Wagner on a poster with a ridiculous dunk. The crowd and the internet will lose its mind, and it will highlight an 18-7 type of run that puts the Wildcats ahead for good. Yes, that is oddly specific, but I'm going to look so brilliant when it happens.
C.J. Moore
The early minutes. Similar to what Villanova did against Kansas, this game could get away from Michigan in a hurry.
Which Coach Has the Crunch-Time Edge: Jay Wright or John Beilein?
7 of 8
This will be such an interesting chess match between two of the game's best coaches. Both have been on the big stage before, but Jay Wright's team found a way to win, so the slight edge goes to Wright.
David Kenyon
Though I believe the game will be decided before the closing moments, I'd welcome a battle of coaching wits between Wright and Beilein. I'm confident the latter would draw up a perfect play, so I'd probably take Beilein's mind in the last minute. Yet I'm inclined to simultaneously trust Wright's players in the clutch possession.
Kerry Miller
Beilein is one of the greatest coaches in the game today. If we're picking who we'd want drawing up a baseline out-of-bounds play out of a timeout with 10 seconds left in a tie game, he'd be my choice. But because Wright and several of Villanova's players were in this situation two years ago, and because Villanova's offense is so ridiculously efficient, I'd have to go with Wright's Wildcats winning a chess match in the final minutes.
C.J. Moore
Tough question. Both are brilliant. I don't think this will be relevant, but I'll go Wright because he has the better crunch-time players.
Which Player Will Have the Best NBA Career?
8 of 8
Mikal Bridges. He is the most obvious NBA talent on either team. The floor for him is something like Corey Brewer—a lanky defender who causes enough problems for opponents that he manages to stay in the league for a long time. It wouldn't surprise me, though, if Jalen Brunson's transition to the NBA is a lot smoother than some draft analysts expect.
David Kenyon
Bridges, and it's not really close for me. Even at his floor, he's a versatile wing defender who can make threes. Bridges has an All-Star ceiling if he becomes more of a creator in the NBA.
Kerry Miller
Bridges will be the first player drafted and should have a nice, long career as a three-and-D wing-forward, but Omari Spellman will be the biggest star of the bunch. Centers who shoot 44 percent from three-point range don't grow on trees, and this one is a good interior defender to boot. If Spellman holds his own on defense against Wagner on Monday and decides to enter the draft this year, this redshirt freshman is going to make some franchise happy with its first-round pick.
C.J. Moore
Bridges. He's a perfect modern day three-and-D wing.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
