What Is Case Keenum Really Worth on the 2018 NFL Free-Agent Market?

Case Keenum has only one strong NFL season under his belt, but he's one of the highest-touted impending unrestricted free agents in the league. 

There are three reasons for that:

1. That strong season came in 2017.  

2. At the age of 30, Keenum should be in his prime.

3. He plays quarterback. 

In other words, Keenum is the right guy in the right place at the right time. 

What have you done for me lately? Despite going undrafted in 2012 and looking like a career backup during the first half-decade of his NFL tenure, Keenum has one hell of an answer to that question.

The Minnesota Vikings won 11 of 14 regular-season games in 2017 with Keenum starting in place of the injured Sam Bradford. He helped them reach the NFC Championship Game while posting the seventh-highest qualified passer rating (98.3) in the NFL. 

Still, it's fair to wonder what Keenum is worth on the open market. The Vikings decided against using the franchise tag to prevent him from hitting free agency, and the possibility exists that his 2017 success was an aberration. 

Somebody will gamble that it wasn't and make Keenum a much richer man. After all, the salary cap continues to rise by at least 5 percent every year, quarterbacks continue to be in absurdly high demand and Keenum's age and recent history work to his advantage.

Last month, Jimmy Garoppolo signed a contract worth $27.5 million per year despite having just seven starts on his NFL resume. Last offseason, Mike Glennon fetched a three-year, $45 million contract even though he was coming off a two-season stretch in which he threw just 11 passes. The year before that, Brock Osweiler earned a four-year, $72 million deal despite starting just seven games in his first four seasons. 

So yeah, Keenum is going to get paid later this month. 

It might not be Garoppolo money since he's older, has less pedigree and a lower ceiling. But if he can convince just one quarterback-needy team that 2017 wasn't an anomaly, Keenum could make as much as (if not more than) Osweiler did two years ago. 

There isn't much precedent for Keenum's situation. Few quarterbacks get their first crack at success at his age, and even fewer exceed expectations so magnificently. Combing through Pro Football Reference's database, there are about as many late bloomers who turned into stars as there are quarterbacks who fooled the football world with out-of-the-blue career years. Some examples...

The best-case scenarios

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Kurt Warner: Also 6'2" and undrafted, Warner came out of nowhere to more of an extent than Keenum. He had thrown just 11 NFL passes before exploding as a 28-year-old with the 1999 St. Louis Rams. The difference is he was off the charts that season, winning MVP and the Super Bowl. He became a Hall of Famer.

Joe Theismann: The 6'0" Theismann broke out as a 30-year-old with the 1979 Washington Redskins, his first full season as a starter. He still had a pair of Pro Bowl campaigns and an MVP award awaiting him.

Warren Moon: Moon didn't make his NFL debut until he was 28 and didn't break out until he was 32 years old in 1988. Twelve years later, he wrapped up a Hall of Fame career. 

Rich Gannon: After 11 mediocre seasons as a borderline-journeyman backup and occasional starter, Gannon suddenly became a stud with the 1999 Raiders at the age of 34. He was one of the best quarterbacks in football over the next four years.

Jeff Garcia: Coming over from the CFL in his late 20s, Garcia (6'1") made three consecutive Pro Bowls in his early 30s. 

Steve Young: Young didn't didn't become a star until he took over full time for Joe Montana at the age of 30 in 1991. Like Keenum, he was short. Unlike Keenum, he was always considered to be a franchise-caliber quarterback. He didn't come out of nowhere, but he was groomed for an extended period of time. He became a Hall of Famer.

Ken Stabler: Snake had just two career starts under his belt when he broke out in 1973 and 1974, his first two years as a regular under center with the Oakland Raiders. But he was a second-round pick who came into the league late (he was 25 as a rookie), and he didn't play for any other teams until then. He became a Hall of Famer.

The worst-case scenarios

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Erik Kramer: This is the closest comparison there is to Keenum. Kramer was an undrafted 6'1" quarterback who spent the first eight years of his career working primarily as a backup in Atlanta, Detroit and Chicago (with a three-year stint in the CFL). As a starter at the age of 31 in 1995, he was the league's fourth-highest-rated passer. But he never recaptured that magic and was out of the league a few years later.

Elvis Grbac: A backup during his first few seasons, the 1993 eighth-round pick had a little more starting experience than Keenum under his belt when he put together back-to-back strong seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs in 1999 and 2000. That led to a big free-agent contract with the Baltimore Ravens at the age of 30, but Grbac lasted one disappointing season in Baltimore and never played again.

Danny White: The 6'2" 1974 third-round pick didn't become a regular starter until he was 28 in 1980. He was the Dallas Cowboys' regular starter for the next four years, and while the team experienced success, White wasn't a star. He made one Pro Bowl and was overshadowed by Montana, Dan Fouts, Ken Anderson and Terry Bradshaw. 

Bill Nelsen: Who? Yeah, exactly. A 10th-round pick in 1963, Nelson was a mediocre backup with the Pittsburgh Steelers for five years before joining the Browns at the age of 27. His first two seasons in Cleveland were strong, but he fizzled after that and was no longer a starter after his age-30 campaign.

Jeff Hostetler: The longtime backup helped the Giants win the Super Bowl in 1990, won the starting job the following offseason but then lost it again in 1992. He had a few solid seasons as a starter with the Raiders beyond that, but he made just one Pro Bowl. 

If Keenum had multiple 2017-caliber seasons on his resume, he'd be in line for the kind of money Kirk Cousins will earn in free agency. Instead, he'll likely land a shorter-term deal with less guaranteed money than a more proven quarterback coming off a season like that. 

That's the reality when nobody knows for sure whether they're looking at Kurt Warner or Erik Kramer. 

Suitors will like that he kept his sack rate low, but they could be concerned that he was sacked 17 times in his last six games after being taken down only five times in his first nine. And speaking of momentum, three of his last four performances—including a pair of playoff affairs—were mediocre, and his 2017 legacy wouldn't be as marvelous if not for a somewhat fortuitous break in the final moments of Minnesota's divisional-round victory over the New Orleans Saints. 

Still, he posted a 108.9 passer rating in the fourth quarter of games that were within seven points, and he had the highest DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) in the NFL last season, according to Football Outsiders.

It'll be harder for Keenum to take opposing defenses by surprise in 2018, especially if he has a weaker supporting cast wherever he goes. Regardless, he did enough in 2017 to land a contract that pays him about $20 million per season over a four-year term. 

Right guy, right place, right time. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon