Golden State Warriors vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Odds, Analysis, NBA Betting Pick

The Golden State Warriors (33-9) will try to rebound from a rare loss when they visit the Milwaukee Bucks (22-18) on Friday as small road favorites.

The Warriors fell 125-106 to the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday as 12-point home favorites, and they have not dropped consecutive games this season.

Point spread: The Warriors opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total is at 222.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 119.4-112.2, Warriors (NBA picks on every game)

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Why the Warriors can cover the spread

Golden State is expected to be without leading scorer Stephen Curry (ankle) again after he reaggravated his injury, but the team still has a pair of All-Stars in Kevin Durant and Draymond Green.

During a recent 11-game stretch without Curry, the Warriors went 9-2 straight up (5-6 against the spread), including seven straight wins as part of a longer 11-game winning streak with him in the lineup for four of the games.

Golden State has also won seven of the past eight meetings, according to the OddsShark NBA Database.

Why the Bucks can cover the spread

While Milwaukee is just 1-7 SU in the last eight games of the series, the team has gone 5-3 ATS during that stretch.

Going back even further, the Bucks are also 9-3 ATS in the previous 12 matchups, something that should give them plenty of confidence in this spot as home dogs.

In addition, they have won three of their last four home games (2-2 ATS) after topping the Orlando Magic 110-103 at the Bradley Center on Wednesday. In that game, Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a game-high 26 points on 10-of-15 shooting.

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Smart betting pick

While Milwaukee has failed to cover three of its last four games overall, the team was on a 4-0 ATS run prior to that and has risen to this level of competition in the past.

The Warriors have not necessarily dominated opponents off a loss, either, even though they have gone 8-0 SU in that situation after their first eight losses, going just 4-4 ATS.

Golden State deserves to be favored as the NBA champion, but the home team will keep this one close and at least cover the spread if not pull off the upset.

NBA betting trends

Golden State is 2-4-1 ATS in its last seven games.

Golden State is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games on the road.

Milwaukee is 2-3-1 ATS in its last six games at home.

All NBA odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.