Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 27, 2017

CARSON, CA - OCTOBER 22:  Trevor Siemian #13 of the Denver Broncos hands the ball off to C.J. Anderson #22 of the Denver Broncos in the first quarter during the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at the StubHub Center on October 22, 2017 in Carson, California.  (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Harry How/Getty Images

Not so long ago, the Denver Broncos had beaten the Kansas City Chiefs seven times in a row. But Kansas City is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread over the teams' past three meetings, sweeping the season series last year.

Two teams desperate to snap losing skids meet when Denver takes on Kansas City on Monday night at Arrowhead Stadium.

        

NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 25.8-17.7 Chiefs. NFL picks on every game.

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

          

Why the Broncos Can Cover the Spread

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The Broncos reached 3-1 this season with a win over the Oakland Raiders earlier in October but are now trying to stop a two-game losing skid following a 21-0 defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers last time out.

Denver fell down 7-0 in the first quarter on a Los Angeles punt return for a score and never came up with a challenge from there, as they got shut out for the first time in 25 years.

On the day, the Broncos outgained the Chargers 251-242 and held a 31-29 edge in time of possession. But they lost a fumble on their opening possession, gave up a special teams score, lost another fumble from Los Angeles' 34-yard line, threw an interception from the Chargers' 31 and got stopped on downs on a drive that reached the Los Angeles 11.

In other words, not much went right. Still, even with its recent offensive struggles Denver has outgained each of its six opponents this season and outrushed four of them.

           

Why the Chiefs Can Cover the Spread

The Chiefs started 5-0 this season, with wins over some decent teams. In fact, Kansas City is the only team to have beaten the Philadelphia Eagles this year. But the Chiefs are also trying to snap a two-game losing streak following their 31-30 loss at Oakland in Week 7.

Kansas City led the Raiders 30-21 through three quarters and still owned a six-point advantage with no time left on the clock. But a pair of defensive penalties extended play, and the Chiefs gave up a Derek Carr touchdown pass from the 1-yard line to lose in excruciating fashion.

On the night, Kansas City came up with 425 yards of offense. They just came up one play short on defense.

The Chiefs already own victories this season over the New England Patriots, Eagles, Chargers, Washington Redskins and Houston Texans. Two of those teams lead their respective divisions and all five are 20-13 combined.

             

Smart pick

Oddsmakers and most bettors are giving Kansas City the better chance to recover. And Denver is struggling on offense. But this is still a nasty AFC West rivalry, and the spread on this game is probably inflated by a field goal or so. The smart money here takes the points with the Broncos.

         

NFL Betting Trends

The Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their past eight games on the road against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 10-4 ATS in their past 14 games.

The Broncos are 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 games on Monday.

           

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.