2017 NFL Predictions: Dark-Horse Super Bowl Picks Certain to Surprise

According to an Associated Press article (via the Las Vegas Sun) six days before Super Bowl XXXIV in 2000, the St. Louis Rams, at one point, had 200-1 odds to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy before the 1999 season began.

It's easy to see why. The 1998 Rams finished in last place at 4-12, and their new starting quarterback, Trent Green, was injured in the preseason and lost for the 1999 campaign. A person who was working at a grocery store just a few years prior stepped in Green's place.

Of course, that person is 2017 Pro Football Hall of Fame inductee Kurt Warner, and with the addition of running back Marshall Faulk, the Greatest Show on Turf was born. The Rams eventually went 13-3 and won the Super Bowl in 2000.

This year, the Patriots are the clear favorites to win the Super Bowl with 15-4 odds, per OddsShark. The smart bet is to pick them to repeat.

However, over the course of a grueling 16-game regular season and a knockout-style playoff tournament, anything can happen, like the 1999 Rams winning it all.

Here's a look at two dark-horse Super Bowl picks (one admittedly more plausible than the other).

Carolina Panthers: 22-1

Last season was an absolute disaster, as injuries, a very young secondary learning on the fly and an absurd number of close losses (seven by three points or less) led to a 6-10 season. Remarkably, they were within one score in the fourth quarter of every loss but one, a 40-7 defeat to the Seattle Seahawks.

Expect a bounce-back season from Carolina. On defense, second-year cornerbacks James Bradberry and Daryl Worley are a year older and better. The 6'1" Bradberry, in particular, was quite good last season, and his absence was felt during losses at New Orleans (41-38 defeat) and at Atlanta (Bradberry left the game early, and the Falcons won 48-33 behind 300 yards from wideout Julio Jones).

The offense should receive a huge boost from rookie running back Christian McCaffrey, who single-handedly changes the entire unit. He can be used as a running back or slot wide receiver, and his speed and shiftiness out of the backfield are going to give many linebackers problems.

The X-factors are quarterback Cam Newton and new left tackle Matt Kalil, who go hand in hand.

Newton struggled last year, but that was in part because of an offensive line that simply did not perform well after left tackle Michael Oher suffered a concussion in the season's second game. This year, Kalik, the Vikings' former left tackle, will step in and take his place.

Kalil struggled at the end of his Minnesota tenure, but in fairness, he was also battling injuries. If he can stay healthy, he can rebound like Oher did in 2015 after he struggled the previous season.

Also keep in mind that many pieces remain from a team that won 17 games (including playoffs) just two seasons ago. If the Panthers had won Super Bowl 50, they would have tied the record for the most wins by any team in NFL history with 18.

The Panthers won't hit that mark this year, especially considering that the NFC South is much tougher than it was two years ago, but they can take advantage of a noticeably easier schedule this year.

Carolina has a tough road test with the New England Patriots, but the combined 2016 win-loss record of their other four road opponents is 19-45. At home, they only play two teams that made the playoffs last year (the Falcons and Green Bay Packers).

Therefore, expect the Panthers to have a much better season. They have stiff competition in the NFC, especially within their own division, but a Super Bowl berth isn't out of question.

Buffalo Bills: 100-1

This pick is less about the current roster and more about the belief that the new administration featuring general manager Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott is the real deal and will bring about a sea change and success in Buffalo not seen since the Marv Levy era.

Of course, that isn't saying a lot seeing that the Bills have not made the playoffs since the Rams won Super Bowl XXXIV, but they experienced success in Carolina (three division titles, one Super Bowl berth) and are bringing over a winning culture.

About that roster, though: It's still pretty good on paper. On offense, LeSean McCoy is one of the best running backs in the game, and Tyrod Taylor is one of the NFL's most underrated quarterbacks. Frankly, he will be better off with a fresh start in a new regime that believes more in him than the previous one.

The line is solid, and the receiving core has potential. The X-factors are Sammy Watkins and Zay Jones, of course.

Watkins, who was the fourth overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft, is in a contract year and playing for a big-time deal. He's also playing to prove himself as his time in Buffalo hasn't been great start due to injuries. If Watkins stays healthy, though, expect a great season.

Jones could end up being the steal of the 2017 draft as the 37th overall pick. He had a wildly productive college career at East Carolina, finishing with 399 catches, 4,279 yards and 23 touchdowns over four seasons. Although college production does not always translate to the NFL, the 6'2" Jones has all the potential to get it done and could be one of the best rookies of his class this year.

The defense underperformed during the Rex Ryan era, but that was largely because the players didn't always mesh with the coaching staff. Provided everyone is on the same page under McDermott, who led a defense that at times was simply fantastic in Carolina during his six seasons there, then the Bills should get back on track on that side of the ball.

Former Seattle Seahawks kicker Stephen Hauschka, who had much success during his time in the Pacific Northwest, is on the team this year, so all three phases have a chance to shine in Buffalo.

The Bills would need a little luck to make the Super Bowl, especially considering that they are in the same division as the Patriots, but if they make the playoffs, anything can happen.

Writer's note: Watkins was traded to the Los Angeles Rams 50 minutes after this piece was published, per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. And then the news kept rolling as the Bills traded cornerback Ronald Darby to the Philadelphia Eagles for wide receiver Jordan Matthews, per Adam Schefter of ESPN.

Despite the trades, the point still stands that the Bills could be a dark-horse Super Bowl contender for the other reasons mentioned.