Is MLB's Most Coveted Trade Target Even Worth the Blockbuster Price?

The hottest name on Major League Baseball's summer trade market is also one of its biggest enigmas. 

Looking at you, Sonny Gray.

With the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline now less than a week away, just about every team in need of starting pitching is circling. The Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees have frequently been mentioned as suitors for the Oakland A's right-hander. So have the Milwaukee Brewers, who Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported could be the "most aggressive" team in the hunt.

There are also dark horses out there. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that the Seattle Mariners are one. Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Atlanta Braves are another.

Simply due to the number of suitors in the fray for Gray, the A's are in prime position to jack up their asking price. And then there are his actual selling points.

He's only 27 years old. He's making just $3.575 million this season. He's under club control through 2019. 

And last but not least: When he's right, the guy's an ace.

It was only two years ago that Gray was an All-Star who finished third in the American League Cy Young voting. And he's hot right now with a 1.62 ERA over his last five starts.

The price for the A's to beat is the Chicago White Sox's haul in the Jose Quintana trade. That netted a four-prospect package headlined by slugger Eloy Jimenez and flamethrower Dylan Cease. According to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, the A's "may actually be looking for even more than that" for Gray.

This is the situation in a nutshell. And at this point, the bigger surprise would be if the A's didn't trade Gray in a blockbuster.

Despite all of this, there's a nagging question: Is Gray really all he's cracked up to be?

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

Two years ago, the answer would've been an obvious yes.

Gray arrived late in 2013 but quickly made an impression with a 2.67 ERA in 12 regular-season appearances and a star-making performance opposite Justin Verlander in the playoffs. He went on to post a 2.91 ERA across 427 innings in 2014 and 2015.

Per Baseball Reference, Gray ranked 12th in MLB in wins above replacement in those two seasons. Among those who ranked below him were Madison Bumgarner, Jacob deGrom, Jon Lester and, yup, Quintana.

Pretty impressive for a guy who, at 5'10" and 190 pounds, doesn't strike an imposing figure on the mound. But Gray's stuff is certainly imposing, as David Ortiz vouched on The Player' Tribune in 2015:

"He looks like the guy who fixes my computer at the Apple Store. I'm thinking, Here we go. This is gonna be fun. Then he took me for a ride, man. Fastball. Sinker. Slider. Curve … Whap. Whap. Whap. You have no idea what this kid is going to throw. He drives me crazy."

However, a lot has happened between then and now.

Gray's 2016 was a lost cause in every way. Disabled list stints for a strained trapezius and a strained forearm limited him to 22 starts, and he managed just a 5.69 ERA when he did pitch.

All this is made even harder to overlook by the fact that Gray missed the first month of 2017 with a lat strain, and then struggled with a 4.84 ERA in his first 10 starts.

In light of Gray's small stature and the recency of his injury troubles, concerns about his durability can't easily be brushed aside. There are also nits to pick with his actual pitching. Such as how his curveball has gone from oft-used and unhittable to, as Brooks Baseball shows, little-used and very hittable.

So, as hot as Gray's been lately, it's just one small step in the right direction. To believe he can take more steps in that direction, interested parties need more positive signs.

Fortunately for them, these signs do exist. 

Above all, Gray does seem to be healthy. At 93.1 miles per hour, his average fastball is the hardest it's been since 2013. And after dropping in 2016, Brooks Baseball shows that his arm slot is up again.

"I haven't really changed my mechanics," Gray said in January, per Joe Stiglich of CSN Bay Area, "it's more or less just staying more under control and taking away some of the movement. To someone watching, you wouldn't even notice. But to me, moving something three or four inches is a big deal."

Meanwhile, Gray's peripherals are more encouraging than his 3.66 overall ERA. To focus on just a few:

Stat	Career	2017
K/9	7.7	8.4
BB/9	2.9	2.8
HR/9	0.8	0.8
Ground Ball%	54.3	55.3
Exit Velocity (MPH)	88.5	86.7

This doesn't mean Gray is all the way back. To wit, Baseball Savant's metrics claim hitters' expected production against him is better than it was in 2016, but not on par with his Cy Young-caliber 2015.

Still, any pitcher who can miss bats, limit walks and stifle hard contact is doing more things right than he's doing wrong. And even if Gray's ERA is just now recovering, the fact that this is happening on a season-wide scale proves his struggles didn't destroy his upside as an ace.

Ultimately, that's what a trade for him would be all about. Whereas the Cubs made a reliability play on Quintana, a team would be making an upside play on Gray. 

Is such a play worth a blockbuster price? It depends on the team.

The Mariners and Braves should hold off. The former would be emptying an already thin farm system to bolster flimsy contention chances. The latter is also a flimsy contender. And with a farm system that's loaded with pitchers, the Braves shouldn't need to trade for Gray to have an ace in their future.

The Cubs all but emptied their farm system when they traded for Quintana. With him joining Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks, their need for Gray isn't large enough to warrant further emptying.

The Astros also don't really need Gray. The difference, however, is that they have prospect depth to spare, and it could mean the finishing touch for a World Series winner (or World Series winners). The same is true of the Los Angeles Dodgers, if they're so inclined.

The Yankees and Brewers aren't on that level, but both have more than enough prospect depth to add Gray to rosters that are good now and potentially even better in 2018 and 2019.

Ultimately, somebody would be taking a chance on Gray. It'll be a good chance if it's a team that stands to benefit greatly from Gray's upside without being hurt too badly by his downside.

Either way, expect somebody to take a chance in the next few days.

Data courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball and Baseball Savant.