500-Foot Bombs and More 2017 Home Run Derby Predictions

It's back.

Or, if you prefer: It's back, back, back.

This is the first day of Major League Baseball's 2017 All-Star festivities in Miami. That means it's time for the Home Run Derby—and there will soon be many dingers raining from the sky at Marlins Park.

Doing the honors this year are Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Bour of the hometown Marlins, young New York Yankees sluggers Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, Los Angeles Dodgers phenom Cody Bellinger, Miguel Sano of the Minnesota Twins, Mike Moustakas of the Kansas City Royals and Charlie Blackmon of the Colorado Rockies.

These eight sluggers will begin taking their hacks at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. To hold everyone over until then, here are nine predictions for what's going to happen and, of course, who's going to emerge victorious.

Note: Statcast data is accurate through games played Sunday.

Sadly, Nobody Will Clear the Marlins Park Home Run Sculpture

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The jaw-droppingest thing that could happen in this year's derby is one of the contestants launching a ball over Marlins Park's colorful, wacky and somewhat notorious home run sculpture.

But don't count on it.

That thing is roughly 425 feet from home plate and supposedly 75 feet tall. To clear it, a hitter would have to hit one both very hard and very high.

Fat chance, according to Dr. David Kagan, professor emeritus of physics at California State University, Chico. He pointed out that even the mightiest dinger on record for ESPN Stats & Info's home run tracker wouldn't have had enough legs to clear the sculpture.

That was a ball hit by Adam Dunn at Chase Field in 2008 that left the bat at a 20.8-degree launch angle and 120.7 mph and which also had a backspin rate of 1,757 revolutions per minute. Even with a projected distance of 510 feet, it was only 52 feet off the ground by the time it traveled 425 feet.

Thus, Kagan wrote in an email: "I would need some seriously long odds to bet on anyone being able to clear that thing."

Well, darn. But don't think the home run sculpture is getting off easy...

The Sculpture Will Be Pelted Aplenty

Failing a dinger over the sculpture, the next-best thing any Home Run Derby viewer can hope for is for the contestants to use it for target practice.

And this can be done.

Somewhere out there, Houston Astros outfielder Jake Marisnick is nodding his head in agreement. For he had one game back in May in which he hit the sculpture with not one but two home runs.

He didn't even need to demolish either ball to make it happen. According to Statcast, the longer of the two was projected at an impressive 450 feet. The shorter of the two, however, was projected at a mere 415 feet.

That's confirmation that the sculpture is not just within reach for the most extreme dingers. It's also not a small target; it's not as if the derby's sluggers will be taking aim at a flagpole.

What can you expect every time a ball clangs off it? Probably plenty of cheering both within Marlins Park and on social media. For while the sculpture has its charms, as a work of art it's more in line with Tommy Wiseau's The Room than Michelangelo's Sistine Chapel: It exists to be lovingly mocked more so than earnestly revered.

Anyway, on to who's going to do what...

Cameos by Justin Bour, Mike Moustakas and Charlie Blackmon

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Among the eight participants in the derby, Bour, Moustakas and Blackmon are probably the three biggest underdogs. That makes them worth rooting for, because who doesn't love an underdog?

None of them is going to win, though.

It's an educated guess based in part on the oomph with which they've hit their batted balls in 2017. Among the eight sluggers in the derby, the lowest average exit velocities belong to these three:

Player	AVG Exit Velo (MPH)
Aaron Judge	96.1
Miguel Sano	93.9
Gary Sanchez	92.5
Giancarlo Stanton	90.8
Cody Bellinger	90.1
Justin Bour	89.7
Mike Moustakas	87.1
Charlie Blackmon	86.4

What's more, none of the three has an enviable matchup out of the gate.

Bour, the No. 7 seed, is up against Judge, who's only the derby's No. 2 seed despite his MLB-high 30 homers. Blackmon, the No. 6 seed, is up against Bellinger, whose 25 homers in 70 games netted him the No. 3 seed. Moustakas, the No. 4 seed, is up against the extremely powerful Sano, the No. 5 seed.

The trip won't be a total loss for these three. They should have fun. Also, it's about darn time Blackmon's glorious beard was put under the bright lights.

But in the end, all they'll get is a "Thanks for playing."

Cody Bellinger Will Go Off...for One Round

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A common Home Run Derby sight is one guy going bonkers for one round and then going "pluh" in subsequent rounds.

Bellinger is a good bet to be that guy this year.

He has the pop to provide an impressive display. Jim Callis of MLB.com rated the rookie's power as the best of any prospect coming into the year. He's since proved the point by averaging 104.7 mph and 402 feet on his homers.

Bellinger has also revealed, however, that he can run hot and cold.

It's certainly happened on a macro level. Between his 24th and 25th home runs, he had a stretch in which he hit just .167 and struck out 15 times in 36 at-bats.

It's easy to imagine this happening on a micro level in the Home Run Derby. The contest is as much about efficiency as it is about power. With a swing that's more long and loopy than short and quick, Bellinger is a candidate to wear himself out early.

He'll be hot enough out of the gate to dispatch Blackmon. But then that'll be that.

Giancarlo Stanton Just Won't Have It This Year

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But, hey, at least Bellinger will fare better than Stanton.

I'm definitely asking for trouble with this prediction. After all, this is the same guy who's obliterated a good chunk of his 234 career homers. It's also the same guy who ran away with last year's derby in San Diego. He launched 61 homers, averaging 446 feet and peaking at 497 feet.

"I thought I was a high school hitter compared to him hitting them that far," said Todd Frazier, the 2015 Home Run Derby champion, per Joe Frisaro of MLB.com.

Here's the thing, though: Stanton's home run power isn't in peak form this season.

At least as far as the Statcast data is concerned. Going back to 2015, he's averaging lows in both home run exit velocity (108.7 mph) and distance (412 feet).

Besides, Stanton has extra pressure on him as the hometown hero this time around. According to my copy of Sportswriter Cliches for Dummies, extra pressure is liable to get to a guy.

In this case, Stanton being swallowed up by the pressure would create an opening for...

Gary Sanchez Will Make Logan Morrison Feel Really Awkward

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There's at least one guy who doesn't think Sanchez, who has all of 13 home runs, should be in the Home Run Derby.

It's Tampa Bay Rays slugger Logan Morrison, who told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times: "Gary shouldn't be there. Gary's a great player, but he shouldn't be in the Home Run Derby."

If the Home Run Derby was about honoring the top home run mashers, Morrison would have a gripe. He's hit 24 home runs—almost twice as many as Sanchez.

But it isn't about that. It's about putting on a show. And Sanchez can certainly do that.

The youngster darn near won the American League Rookie of the Year Award in 2016 by hitting 20 homers in only 53 games. And while he may have "just" 13 homers in 57 games this year, his average long ball distance of 427 feet is the best among hitters with at least 10 homers. When he hits 'em, he really hits 'em.

Sanchez's power makes him ripe to upset Stanton. Despite that, the real coming-out party of the derby will belong to...

Miguel Sano Will Show the World What It's Been Missing

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They don't make 'em much more underrated than Sano.

The Twins' young slugger broke through with a .916 OPS and 18 homers in only 80 games in 2015, and he has a .906 OPS and 21 homers in 82 games this year. He's thus spent the bulk of his young career as an elite hitter.

To boot, the 6'4", 260-pounder's power is as advertised.

"Sano has enough juice to earn comparisons to Giancarlo Stanton, the only right-handed hitter in the game who matches his 80 raw power on the 20-80 scouting scale," Baseball America said in 2013.

Among players with at least 500 balls in play since 2015, Sano's average exit velocity of 93.2 mph ranks barely behind those of Stanton (93.4), Miguel Cabrera (93.4) and Nelson Cruz (93.2). And in 2017, his average of 412 feet on homers puts him right there with Judge and Stanton.

Nonetheless, Sano fell short of fan favorite Jose Ramirez of the Cleveland Indians in the voting for the AL's starting third base gig. Clearly, he's not well known on the national landscape.

Time for him to change that in the best possible way: with dingers.

Aaron Judge Goes for the Moon, Repeatedly Makes It 500 Feet of the Way

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Of all the questions surrounding this year's Home Run Derby, perhaps none is more enticing than this one: How far will Judge hit the ball?

Oh, don't worry about that. He's going to clear 500 feet.

Several times.

If that sounds unlikely to you, then you need to know who we're dealing. At 6'7" and 282 pounds, Judge is the largest hitter in major league history. He looks the part this year too, as he leads all hitters in:

• Overall exit velocity: 96.1 mph
• Fly ball/line drive exit velocity: 101.4 mph
• Home run exit velocity: 110.8 mph

While Judge lags behind Sanchez in average distance, he's absolutely capable of reaching great marks himself. His June 11 clout is the longest on record this season for both Statcast (495 feet) and ESPN Stats & Info (496 feet). And he's done even better in batting practice, peaking at 510 feet.

Judge generates his immense power not just with his size but also with a swing that's nice and short. He's built to last and thus should make the most of many opportunities to clear the hallowed 500-foot threshold.

And while we're on the topic of Judge...

Yeah, Judge Is Totally Winning This Thing

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This is one of those times when the easiest prediction is also the right prediction.

The field is full of mashers this year, yet Judge is considered the favorite to win the contest. That's what he gets for being the MLB home run leader and also having more power than anyone else. Other sluggers are to Judge as Sylvester Stallone's Judge Dredd is to Karl Urban's Judge Dredd.

For what it's worth, this won't be Judge's first experience in a Home Run Derby.

He won the only derby he entered while he was in college at Fresno State, riding a late surge to capture the 2012 College Home Run Derby. For those who were there, the memory hasn't yet faded.

"You hear major leaguers saying the same thing—you don't see guys do what he can do," fellow 2012 contestant and 2011 champion Daniel Aldrich told Billy Witz of the New York Times. "The ball comes off his bat different than everybody else."

It sure does. And Monday night, the ball will come off Judge's bat hard enough and often enough for him to add a Home Run Derby title to his growing list of power-hitting feats.

Data courtesy of Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant and ESPN Stats & Info.