Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

The Minnesota Twins (40-36) will be going for a split in the finale of a four-game series against the Boston Red Sox (43-35) on Thursday when they wrap up their visit as big road underdogs at the sportsbooks. The Twins ended a two-game skid with a 4-1 win over the Red Sox on Wednesday to improve to 6-3 in their last nine games.

Betting line: The Red Sox opened as -206 favorites (wager $206 to win $100); the total is at 10 runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 4.8-2.8, Red Sox (MLB picks on every game)

Why the Twins can pay on the MLB lines

Minnesota got to face one of Boston's struggling pitchers on Wednesday, and next up is another in David Price (2-2, 4.76 ERA) on Thursday. The Twins are coming off a victory against 2016 American League Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello, tagging him for four runs and six hits in six innings.

While Price has been slightly better lately, he still has earned only one win in his past four outings. Meanwhile, Minnesota hopes Kyle Gibson (4-5, 6.23) can build off one of his better starts, allowing one run and four hits in 4.2 innings of a 4-2 road win versus the Cleveland Indians last Saturday.

Why the Red Sox can pay on the MLB lines

Even though Gibson was better last time out, he has been a brutal pitcher overall this season for the Twins. Last year, he went 1-1 with a 3.95 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox, and Price should be extra motivated to pick up his first home win of the season in this spot.

Price has been a much better performer at Fenway Park despite going 0-1 in two starts there with a 3.75 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting just .222 versus Price at Fenway, which is lower than last year when he went 9-3 there.

Smart betting pick

Boston has won four of the past five meetings with Minnesota including Wednesday's loss, and the team finds itself virtually tied with the New York Yankees atop the AL East. The Twins are just a half-game back of the Indians in the AL Central, so this matchup is equally large for them. It's hard to trust Price at this price at online gambling sites, so take Minnesota to pull off the upset for a split.

MLB betting trends

The total has gone under in seven of Minnesota's last eight games.

The total has gone under in five of Minnesota's last six games on the road.

The total has gone under in four of Boston's last five games.

All MLB lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.