Burning Questions for 2017 NHL Free Agency

The rumor mill has been spinning on the high as the NHL's annual free-agency window prepares to open.

Teams are allowed to chat with players who will become free agents on Saturday to get a sense of whether they would be a good fit. Contract values and term lengths are not supposed to be discussed, but plenty of details get leaked to the media as both sides try to make their best deals.

Last season, all eyes were on Steven Stamkos until he finally re-upped with the Tampa Bay Lightning on June 29. This year's crop of free agents doesn't boast a superstar of his caliber, but CapFriendly reports there are 154 unrestricted free agents coming to market on Saturday—and history tells us we may see some big trades in the days before too.

Here's a look at some of the most intriguing questions that are swirling around one of the most pivotal periods of the NHL offseason.

Will Kevin Shattenkirk Sign with the New York Rangers?

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Kevin Shattenkirk is ranked by many writers, including Matt Larkin of the Hockey News, as the best unrestricted free agent available in a slightly below-average class of 2017.

With his contract set to expire at the end of this season, he was a big prize at the trade deadline in February, but he chipped in just one goal and five assists in 13 games before the Washington Capitals fell to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Shattenkirk is a native of New Rochelle, New York, and he refers to himself as a "New Yorker at heart" in his Twitter bio—two facts that help fuel the belief he's angling to join the New York Rangers on July 1 and might be willing to take less money or term to make it happen.

New York made some space on the blue line when Dan Girardi was bought out on June 14. More cap space was freed up when Derek Stepan was moved to Arizona on June 23, although the Rangers did receive 21-year-old defenseman Anthony DeAngelo as part of their bounty from that deal.

Still, Shattenkirk's prowess makes him a great fit to shore up a Rangers power play that was 3-for-39 in the playoffs, a dismal 7.7 percent success rate. His 53 points with the man advantage over the past two seasons tie him with Erik Karlsson for second overall among defensemen, just two points back of Brent Burns.

On Wednesday, David Pagnotta of the Fourth Period reported that the 28-year-old was starting to narrow down a field of about six teams, including the Rangers. He seems to be taking the largest financial decision of his hockey career pretty lightly.

When free agency officially opens on Saturday, expect Shattenkirk's new long-term contract with the Rangers to be one of the first deals announced.

Will Big Trades Come Down Before July 1?

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The expansion draft to stock the Vegas Golden Knights has thrown the normal rhythms of the NHL offseason a little out of whack this year.

In 2016, the days leading up to free agency saw some blockbuster trades as teams tried to make their biggest moves before the market opened up. Most notably, it was June 29 when, in a matter of minutes, the Edmonton Oilers traded Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils in exchange for Adam Larsson before the Montreal Canadiens sent P.K. Subban to the Nashville Predators in exchange for Shea Weber.

The No. 1 name on Frank Seravalli's Trade Bait List at TSN is center Matt Duchene of the Colorado Avalanche, who has been part of trade rumors for the better part of the year. Last year's pre-free-agency blockbusters were surprises because they came out of the blue. If the 26-year-old is finally moved, it would be a shocker because—after all this waiting—it has finally happened.

Keep an eye on Duchene—and on those defensemen Vegas is trying to move out, such as Luca Sbisa and Alexei Emelin. Also, brace yourself for the unexpected; you never know what the league's general managers will get up to during their best trading window of the year.

How Much Will Connor McDavid Get Paid?

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The NHL's newly minted MVP isn't a free agent on July 1. Connor McDavid has one year left to play on his entry-level contract, but when free-agency opens, that marks the beginning of the league's new contract year and makes him eligible to sign his first extension.

If he re-signs with Edmonton—as expected—he can sign a deal that's up to eight years in length. 

According to Article 50.6 of the NHL's collective bargaining agreement, no player can earn more than 20 percent of the value of the salary cap in the year he signs his contract. With the cap at $75 million, that means the maximum contract for any new deal signed in the 2017-18 season would be for an average annual value of $15 million per season.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reported on Wednesday that McDavid's new deal is expected to be in the range of $108 million over eight years, an average of $13.25 million per season. 

The deal is important for two reasons.

First, it sets a new high-water mark for the NHL's top players. Only three players have average annual values in eight digits: Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews at $10.5 million each, and Anze Kopitar at $10 million. McDavid's number looks like it will blow those contracts out of the water.

Second, the Oilers are looking for cost certainty so they can re-sign their own most important restricted free agent, Leon Draisaitl. The 21-year-old made huge strides during the final year of his entry-level contract, finishing second to McDavid in team scoring, with 29 goals and 77 points, before leading the Oilers with six goals and 16 points in 13 playoff games.

He's also due to cash in—and Oilers management needs to lock down its McDavid negotiation before figuring how Draisaitl fits into the equation.

Mark Spector of Sportsnet muses that McDavid and Draisaitl could be treated as the NHL's latest Batman-and-Robin pair, like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin with the Pittsburgh Penguins or Kane and Toews with the Chicago Blackhawks—close in age and with their compensations always linked.

But Spector thinks it's more likely Draisaitl will slot into a comfortable second tier, which could see him signing long term at an AAV of $9.2 million per year.

No matter what salary he commands, McDavid's new deal won't come into play until the 2018-19 season, so even a $9 million commitment to Draisaitl would leave the Oilers with some cap flexibility for the upcoming season—enough to fend off any kind of predatory offer sheet that might come up and keep a good team around their two bright young stars.

Unless the cap goes up substantially, though, Edmonton will be forced to become budget-conscious with the rest of its roster after 2017-18. That's all the more reason to make short-term moves and try to take a run at the 2018 Stanley Cup.

Will Any Restricted Free Agent Sign an Offer Sheet?

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The days leading up to July 1 are also the time to do the annual refresher on how teams can sign restricted free agents to offer sheets—and why nobody does this.

If he's not happy with his team or with the progress of his contract negotiations, any restricted free agent can sign an offer sheet with another team. The original team retains the right to match the contract and keep its player.

If a team doesn't match, it receives compensation based on the average annual value of the player's contract—which can be as much as four first-round draft picks for a deal worth more than $9.8 million per season, according to Like A Bossk at Fear the Fin. 

Because the Oilers are on the verge of making a huge financial commitment to McDavid, many fanbases—like that of the San Jose Sharks—are wondering what it would take to bring Draisaitl to their team through an offer sheet.

The system certainly has its challenges.

First, the team making the offer must have all of its draft picks available as potential compensation to even set the table for a deal. Any team that has already dealt away a key draft pick is immediately out of the running.

Second, teams are committed to keeping their good players and will almost always match an offer sheet, as Oilers general manager Peter Chiarelli told Chris Johnston of Sportsnet he would do for Draisaitl. It has been a decade since the Oilers became the last team to successfully execute an offer sheet when they signed Dustin Penner away from the Anaheim Ducks in August of 2007.

Third, because teams have historically been prone to match, the only tangible result that arises from offer sheets is that salaries are driven up league-wide, something no general manager wants to see. As a result, we haven't even seen an offer sheet since the Calgary Flames' misguided offer to contract holdout Ryan O'Reilly in February 2013.

The last offer sheet to be executed during the offseason happened when the Philadelphia Flyers went after defenseman Shea Weber with a 14-year, $110 million deal back in 2012—a deal that wouldn't be allowed today with the seven-year term limits for new contracts. Though the offer created some financial pressure, the Nashville Predators matched it and kept the player until they were ready to trade him away.

Fantasize at will, but remember the likelihood of seeing your team successfully execute an offer sheet this summer is infinitesimal—and if it does happen, there would be a high price to pay.

What Will Happen to Thornton and Marleau?

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A couple of the oldest high-profile free agents are another seemingly inseparable pair: Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau of the San Jose Sharks.

Per QuantHockey, Marleau and Thornton rank fourth and fifth respectively among active players in games played.

Thornton was drafted first overall by the Boston Bruins in 1997 and was traded to the Sharks in 2005. Marleau was drafted right behind him at No. 2 and has worn the Sharks' teal for his entire 1,493-game career. 

Marleau trails only Shane Doan (1,540 games) as the active player with the most games played for a single franchise, but that may change for both veterans this summer. The Arizona Coyotes have indicated they won't be bringing Doan back, but Marleau's situation is a bit more murky.

St. Louis Blues beat reporter Andy Strickland said on Tuesday that the Sharks had extended a two-year offer to Marleau; Thornton, meanwhile, is reportedly being pursued quite aggressively outside the Bay Area.

David Pagnotta of the Fourth Period says the soon-to-be 38-year-old Thornton, who's recovering from a torn ACL and MCL, is looking for a three-year contract. Word from Los Angeles Kings insider Jon Rosen is that the Sharks' California rivals to the south are in heavy pursuit.

When the dust settles, will we see Thornton and Marleau leave San Jose and break up their long partnership?

Which Teams Will Get the Most Bang for Their Bucks?

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On Saturday, the biggest headlines are reserved for the top-level multiyear contract announcements.

If you look back at the 2016 Sports Illustrated free-agency tracker, you'll see the big names who were signed right away included Troy Brouwer with the Calgary Flames (four years, $18 million), Loui Eriksson with the Vancouver Canucks (six years, $36 million), David Backes with the Boston Bruins (five years, $30 million), Frans Nielsen to the Detroit Red Wings (six years, $31.25 million) and Milan Lucic to the Edmonton Oilers (seven years, $42 million).

That same day, though, the Nashville Predators quietly picked up Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber on matching one-year deals for just $575,000. Those two defensemen teamed up to form Nashville's third pairing and went all the way to the Stanley Cup Final. Both have already re-signed with Nashville and will make $650,000 apiece next season.

Up front, the Florida Panthers scored the deal of the year when they signed the then-25-year-old UFA Jonathan Marchessault to a two-year contract with a cap hit of $750,000 per season. He led the Panthers in scoring, with 30 goals, before being picked up in the expansion draft by the Vegas Golden Knights.

A year from now, the general managers who earn praise won't be the ones who saddle their teams with big-ticket deals. The best free-agent signings barely earn a mention beyond the rolling sports ticker when they happen, then reveal themselves once the season gets underway.

Will Alexander Radulov Re-Sign with the Montreal Canadiens?

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Now 30, sniper Alexander Radulov should have several years' worth of good hockey ahead of him—and he's looking for a contract to match.

In his return to the NHL after a four-season spell in Russia, Radulov delivered 18 goals and 54 points in 76 games for the Montreal Canadiens—enough to convince fans his $5.75 million contract had delivered good value.

On June 22, Pierre LeBrun of TSN reported that Radulov's camp is looking for a six-year contract at $7 million per season and added "No way Habs do that..."

The question is will the talented Russian find another team that meets his asking price, or will his representatives be able to work out a compromise with Montreal GM Marc Bergevin?

When talking about Radulov, it also brings up questions of whether Ilya Kovalchuk will resurface at some point during free-agency weekend. Now 34, the first overall draft pick from 2001 has indicated he would like to return to North America after spending the past four seasons in the KHL.

The New Jersey Devils retain Kovalchuk's rights for one more season. If he comes back to North America, Mike Morreale of NHL.com reports that a sign-and-trade scenario would be necessary for him to land on a new team—and that he would be eligible to sign a new deal on Saturday.

Kovalchuk would become an unrestricted free agent after turning 35, but any deal he signed after that point would be subject to the league's more restrictive contract rules for older players.

Kovalchuk's best opportunity to lock down a multiyear commitment with an NHL team starts on Saturday.

Will Vegas Be Buyers as Well as Sellers?

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Vegas Golden Knights general manager George McPhee had an opportunity to negotiate with impending unrestricted free agents before he stocked his team at the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft on June 21.

McPhee picked two UFAs—winger Chris Thorburn from the Winnipeg Jets and backup goaltender J.F. Berube from the New York Islanders. So far, neither player has been signed to a new deal, so both will become unrestricted free agents on Saturday.

Since the expansion draft, McPhee selected a boatload of young players at the entry draft and has been spending his time trading some of the defensemen he has acquired. Eleven blueliners remain on his roster, including restricted free agents Nate Schmidt and Griffin Reinhart.

Frank Seravalli of TSN reported on June 26 that McPhee is still trying to make deals to trade Alexei Emelin and Luca Sbisa. If other teams don't reel in the UFA defensemen they've targeted, the market for those players could open up in subsequent days.

Gary Lawless from the Golden Knights website suggested McPhee will be quiet on Saturday, "when most GMs make their biggest mistakes," overpaying on term and price.

Don't be surprised to see the Golden Knights make a lower-level move or two if they feel the opportunity presents itself.

Stats courtesy of NHL.com. Contract information from CapFriendly.