Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Statement Series for the Rays or Red Sox?

Coming into the season, even the optimistic Rays fans couldn’t have seen this type of success coming.

“Come June 1st, you’ll have the best record in the American League” would be followed by nothing more than chuckles and snickers. “But hey”, I might respond, “if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can be champions, any Tampa Bay team can do it!”

While there was no way to predict that this Rays team would have this much early season success, you can see traces of optimism in my season preview in Fire Brand’s own “Know thy Enemy” series before the season.

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“When you’ve finished nine of the ten seasons in your franchise’s history in last place of your division and you’ve only cracked the 70 win mark once, maybe a change of name serves to help wipe that slate clean.

At least the Tampa Bay Rays and their fans would like to think so.

The Devil Rays were always burdened with a complete and utter lack of pitching and raw, but not developed, talent at the plate.

The newly named Rays hope that 2008 signifies a step in a new direction. With a developing ace in Scott Kazmir, a solid two in James Shields, and youth at the tail in Matt Garza, Edwin Jackson, and Andy Sonnanstine, the Rays staff should provide support for a surprisingly tough lineup.

These aren’t your father’s Rays.”—Tim Daloisio, Know they Enemy, 2008 Rays Preview

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After sweeping the Red Sox in Tampa Bay earlier this season, the Rays appeared poised to make a statement as they were on top of the division twenty-five games into the season.

With a three game series between the Rays and the Red Sox at Fenway Park looming in only a few days away, if the Rays were for real, a series win on the road in Boston would surely put a stamp of approval on their early season success.

Of course, we know how that turned out.

A three game sweep of the Rays later, they would find themselves three games out of first with the Red Sox looking like they were about to pull away from the rest of the division.

But since that time, the Red Sox road woes held them to a 15-11 record while the Rays have raced back out to first place and the best record in the American League on the heels of a 19-7 streak of their own.

With the Rays one and a half games ahead in the division, once again, a trip to Fenway Park will provide an important benchmark for their season.

And while the Red Sox are coming off of a successful road series in Baltimore, the timing for the Rays return to Boston could be serendipitous for the visitors as injuries have begun to peck away at the Red Sox lineup.

The Rays will miss undefeated Daisuke Matsuzaka as he rests his shoulder and yesterday’s news that David Ortiz will be on the shelf for a month leaves a hole in the Red Sox lineup just in time for the Rays to come to town.

Justin Masterson will take the ball in tonight’s opener in Matsuzaka’s stead. And while to the naked eye, “Matsuzaka out/Masterson” in favors the Rays, the young right hander’s two starts this season might have you think otherwise.

Masterson is 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA, .97 WHIP and nine strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings in his two starts this season and has looked every bit the prospect he has been heralded as.

While the Masterson/Matsuzaka trade off might not be as much an advantage as it first appears, the lack of David Ortiz in the middle of the lineup certainly is a bonus for the Rays.

It is likely that the Red Sox will go with an outfield of Ellsbury, Crisp, and Drew with Manny Ramirez grabbing some rest and playing a fair amount of DH. When Manny is in the field, we can expect Sean Casey to see a few more regular at bats.

Either way, the lineup isn’t nearly as formidable without Big Papi as the anchor.

For the Rays, the time to take advantage is now. But do early/mid season head to head series really have a dramatic effect on the overall course of a season?

We’ve been asking this about the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry for years, and I have always responded a resounding yes!

I am a firm believer that a season is a living and breathing entity with a life of its own. In order to really pull off the type of transition that the Rays are looking to achieve, they have to feed their new “season” with the nutrition of a statement series.

A series win in Boston, going into the reigning king’s castle and not relinquishing their division lead, would be just that—a statement series.

Another sweep at the hands of the defending champions not only gives the Rays a little blow, as they would slip out of first in the division, but also feeds the monster known as the Red Sox season.

No matter what the outcome of this series, two things are clear.

(1) The Red Sox will be in the playoff hunt come time for a pennant race and (2) the Rays will be somewhere in that mix as well.

At the same time, the outcome of this series may have a dramatic impact on each teams’ trajectory as they work through the middle of the season.

So what can the Red Sox expect from the Rays this trip through Fenway?

Pitching and defense.

Unlike “Devil” Ray teams of the past, this Rays team has thrived on great pitching from their starters (3.76 ERA, seventh best in MLB) and even more surprisingly their bullpen (3.42 ERA, 17 saves in 22 chances).

The Red Sox do catch a bit of a break themselves this series with closer Troy Percival on the DL and not catching Scott Kazmir’s (5-1, 1.22 ERA, 38Ks in 37 IP) turn in the rotation.

Nonetheless, Matt Garza, James Shields, and Edwin Jackson all have ERAs in the three’s to contend with.

One of the reasons the Rays pitching has been so good is the defense that they have behind it. The Tampa Bay Rays have made an MLB least 23 errors this season and a remarkable four in their past twenty games.

When your defense is saving you runs instead of creating them, your pitchers reap the rewards.

At the plate, this Rays team has middle of the league pop with their bats, primarily coming from Carlos Pena, Eric Hinske (who knew?), and super rookie third baseman Evan Longoria with 10, 10 and seven home runs respectfully.

The one thing this offense excels at is putting pressure on teams from the base paths. Built more like a traditional National League club, the Rays lead all of baseball in stolen bases with 62 and feature speed up and down the lineup.

There are only a few times in a baseball season that you get a series thrown at you that could impact and dictate the flow of the season that follows.

Around Boston, we are used to nineteen such games a year when the opponent features the dreaded letters N and Y in navy blue somewhere on their uniform.

It’s time to appreciate a different threat and to treat this series like you would a three game set against the hypothetically division leading Yankees.

This series can only be a statement series for the Rays if the Red Sox don’t go out and impose their will and their innate advantage at Fenway Park. In fact, instead of preventing a statement series for the Rays, it’s time for the Red Sox to go out and make one of their own.

Either way, it should be fun.

One thing can be assured, Thursday night’s 6:05 pm start leading up to Game One of the NBA Finals will have a playoff charged atmosphere oozing into Fenway all the way from North Station.

It’s a special time in Boston, let’s ride that wave!