"So what will Green command?" the Washington Post's Tim Bontemps wrote. "It would seem likely he’ll be somewhere in the $10-$12 million range, and potentially more if teams believe his 38 percent shooting clip from three is sustainable (which they’d be fair to question). But with virtually every team looking for players like him, his market should be a strong one."
NBA Free Agents Who Could Receive Unexpected Max Contracts
Dan Favale@@danfavaleFeatured ColumnistJune 6, 2017NBA Free Agents Who Could Receive Unexpected Max Contracts

In the NBA, max contracts are typically like Cleveland Cavaliers-Golden State Warriors, Part III: We see them coming a mile away.
These deals are usually reserved for franchise cornerstones—players who aren't hard to spot. Sometimes, though, they can go to surprise recipients. Chandler Parsons knows what we're talking about.
And yet, even Parsons, along with Harrison Barnes, was more max-contract formality than surprise possibility. The infusion of TV money last summer incited an unprecedented spending spree. Max deals were more prevalent but no harder to spot.
This offseason is different. The NBA isn't gearing up for another astronomical salary-cap spike. The ceiling is set to jump by $7 million, to $101 million total—a larger-than-normal but still manageable number.
Fewer teams will have max space or the means to create it as a result, so there won't be as many unexpected big-money deals. But there will be some, and they'll be even more disarming than last year's crop of surprises with the bidding free-for-all set to subside.
Not all of these players stand to reap the benefits of blatant overpays. There's a chance none of them end up with max deals. But the market for each of their services could also demand one. Maybe they are restricted free agents, in which case suitors must be aggressive in hopes of offering deals incumbent squads don't match. Or perhaps they project as the best available name behind max-contract locks, in which case their list of admirers will escalate by default.
Whatever the situation, it's possible these players, against conventional wisdom, coax short- or long-term maxes out of teams with the flexibility to offer them one. Consider yourself warned.
Notable Exclusion: Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans

Years Experience: 8
Max Salary in Year 1: $30.3 Million (30 percent of salary cap)
A max deal for Jrue Holiday would most definitely, without question, be a complete surprise...if we didn't have almost a half-year's notice one was in the pipeline.
"The [New Orleans] Pelicans are prepared to do a max or near-max deal for Holiday (according to sources) and that salary value may be too rich for other suitors, especially given Holiday’s injury history," Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler wrote in February. "While nothing is done until it’s done, the Pelicans are prepared for the risk of losing Holiday but feel like the outcome of the season post-Cousins trade and a hefty offer could help them sway Holiday back for another deal."
It makes perfect sense for the Pelicans to set the bar this high. They don't have the flexibility to replace Holiday if he bolts and cannot afford to hemorrhage talent when they only have one year to sell DeMarcus Cousins on a permanent stay in New Orleans before he reaches free agency.
Holiday must also be well-compensated for the on-court sacrifices he'll be making beside Cousins and Anthony Davis. They are two of the best big men in the game. They need their touches. Holiday will spend ample time not only deferring to them, but being a glorified cutter and spot-up complement—a third wheel playing a position typically reserved for first or second options.
Outside suitors cannot compete with the five-year offer New Orleans can dangle. That doesn't mean Holiday will stick around, but it does probably mean any squad looking to poach him will need to tender a max offer just to be in the running for his services.
Teams That Might Be Willing to Pay the Max: Dallas Mavericks, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings
Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets

Years Experience: 9
Max Salary in Year 1: $30.3 Million
Let's play a game. Below is the production for two 6'10" forwards during their age 28 seasons:
Player A is Ryan Anderson, in 2015-16, just before he reached free agency and secured a four-year, $80 million contract from the Houston Rockets. Player B is Danilo Gallinari, from this past season, who is officially a up for grabs after declining his $16.1 million player option.
This summer's market won't compare to last year's bonanza. The salary-cap spike isn't as drastic, so there won't be as many teams trying to outbid one another. But that shouldn't matter as much in Gallinari's case.
He, unlike Anderson, is leaving money on the table to enter free agency. And he, unlike Anderson, isn't hailing from a Pelicans squad that was supposed to be entering the early stages of a rebuild. It will be harder for Gallinari to leave the Denver Nuggets.
General manager Tim Connelly has said hashing out a long-term deal with him is included in the "offseason blueprint," per the Denver Post's Nick Kosmider. There's no way the Nuggets are operating under the assumption Gallinari will cost less than Ryan Anderson. Any team planning to come in with an offer is already on the hook for more than $20 million per year.
Gallinari's market will be further inflated from there by the lack of other obtainable options. Gordon Hayward's free agency is a two-team affair between the Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz; Blake Griffin isn't turning down the five-year max the Los Angeles Clippers are prepared to offer, per the Los Angeles Times' Broderick Turner; and Paul Millsap, in addition to pledging his allegiance to the Atlanta Hawks, turns 33 in February.
Remove them from the prize pool, while knowing the Washington Wizards will match whatever Otto Porter gets in free agency, and all that's left his Gallinari. If he's getting $20-plus million no matter what, it's not a stretch, at that point, to talk yourself into $30 million.
Teams That Might Be Willing to Pay the Max: Brooklyn Nets, Denver Nuggets, Miami Heat
JaMychal Green, Memphis Grizzlies (Restricted)

Years Experience: 3
Max Salary in Year 1: $25.3 million (25 percent of salary cap)
JaMychal Green is a darling in today's NBA—a power forward who switches pick-and-rolls, hangs tight in space, works on the defensive glass and doesn't need to do more than play off primary ball-handlers on offense.
Players like this are rare even at a time when frontcourts are prioritizing all-over versatility. Kevin Durant was the only one this season to match Green's defensive rebounding (21.1), steal (1.1) and block (1.5) rates while drilling at least 37 percent of his three-point attempts.
Interested parties must decide whether Green's efficiency translates to a larger role. And even if the answer's no, $10 to $12 million per year feels a little low for someone with his combination of strength, speed and lateral gait on the defensive end.
The right suitor will deem him capable of more. Green's head coach, David Fizdale, has said he would already be doing more if not for the Memphis' Grizzlies' rock-solid pecking order.
Can Green be someone who creates his own scoring opportunities? He shot 48.1 percent on a limited number of drives and 44.4 percent in a handful of isolations. Can he grab defensive rebounds, turn around and lead fast breaks? He's shown the ability to explode off screens with the ball in his hands when facing mismatches. Might he join the ballooning list of bigs initiating pick-and-rolls above the break?
"Maybe sometime," he told NBA Math in March.
Teams looking for more of a featured weapon up front are the Grizzlies' worst nightmare. Green shouldn't garner four-year offers worth nine figures, but the threat of a three-season max for a do-everything 4 isn't one that can be written off.
Teams That Might Be Willing to Pay the Max: Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat
George Hill, Utah Jazz

Years Experience: 9
Max Salary in Year 1: $30.3 million
George Hill played well enough through 49 appearances with the Utah Jazz for them to prepare for the worst.
"I told him if he gets a crazy offer somewhere else and we helped him get that offer, 'You're not going to get one poor thought, much less a word [from us]' if he were to go," he said of Hill, per the Deseret News' Mike Sorensen. "He helped us."
Shelling out max money for a 31-year-old point who has spent a majority of his career flying underneath the massive shadow cast by Kawhi Leonard sounds absurd. But there were times during the regular season when Hill was the Jazz's offensive lifeline. He contributed more value on that end than anyone except Gordon Hayward, according to NBA Math's Total Points Added—despite missing nearly half the year.
Unlike most point guards, Hill's impact isn't related to having the ball in his hands. He put down more than 40 percent of his spot-up threes in Utah, and there won't be a correlation between his offensive usage and effort on the defensive end.
Actual All-Stars can be harder to fit in and even harder to appease. Hill, as he showed in Utah, can play off anyone while running functioning pick-and-rolls when he gets the chance. He finished 2016-17 in the 92nd percentile of pick-and-roll efficiency; he's basically a taller, more toned-down version of Kyle Lowry.
That doesn't make a Hill a max-contract formality. His market value is directly related to how much the Jazz are willing to pay. And their budget will be determined by Hayward.
Lose him, and the Jazz have no reason to invest in Hill. Re-sign Hayward, and they'll want to retain the fringe star who helps them make the most of their best player's return. Paying Hill $20-plus million annually is easy to defend when he's the finishing touch to a dark-horse contender.
Prospective suitors must top that just to start. And Hill's price tag climbs higher still if all the big-name floor generals stay put. Add all that together, and the end result could be a short-term max from a team desperate to make a splash.
Teams That Might Be Willing to Pay the Max: Denver Nuggets, Philadelphia 76ers
Nerlens Noel, Dallas Mavericks (Restricted)

Years Experience: 4
Max Salary in Year 1: $25.3 million
A source told Scout.com's Mike Fisher "multiple" teams are ready to throw a max deal Nerlens Noel's way this summer. There is only one appropriate response: Um, whoa.
Noel anchored some pretty good defensive units with the Philadelphia 76ers, emerging as a reliable rim protector and one of the few traditional towers who doesn't crumble when tasked with rotating onto ball-handlers and party-crashing passing lanes. His rim-running off screens has also come a long way. He shot 57.1 percent out of the pick-and-roll this past season while lowering his turnover rate from 2015-16 by more than nine percentage points.
Buy into him balancing his offensive and defensive responsibilities to perfection—his rim protection was spotty with the Dallas Mavericks—and there's cause for an average annual salary north of $15 million. But more than $25 million per year? That has more to do with Noel's free-agency status than his play style.
League executives told the Sporting News' Sean Deveney back in February that Noel could fetch offer sheets worth around $90 million—overtures Dallas fully intended to match. This interest in keeping him is predictable. The Mavericks wouldn't have traded for him if they weren't going to pay him.
Rivals with cap space will drum up the price tag just to get something out of their interest. If the Mavericks match, you'll have forced them to pay more than sticker value for their own player. If they pass, then you'll have the 23-year-old defensive anchor that you wanted.
Things would be different if Noel weren't on the verge of cashing in before taking stock of potential suitors. But when the benchmark on his next deal is set at $90 million, it's not that far of a leap to max money.
One thing that helps the Mavericks: The list of basketball fits brazen enough to sling this much money is short. Kevin Durant and LeBron James went head-to-head at center for a brief stretch in Game 2 of the NBA Finals. Teams won't be in the business of overpaying classic centers.
Teams That Might Be Willing to Pay the Max: Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks
Andre Roberson, Oklahoma City Thunder (Restricted)

Years Experience: 4
Max Salary in Year 1: $25.3 million
Is Andre Roberson's jumper fixable?
That's the question every one of his admirers, including the Oklahoma City Thunder, must ask themselves over the summer. The answer will determine whether he's paid like a defensive specialist or a three-and-D superstud.
Roberson has now shot under 35 percent from long range through three of his first four seasons in the league. This year's Thunder team wasn't especially equipped to engineer high-quality looks, but he enjoyed a boatload of them without seeing the slightest uptick in efficiency.
More than 84 percent of his three-point attempts came with a defender six or more feet away from him. He shot a grotesque 25.3 percent on those opportunities. His numbers improved a great deal during the playoffs, but a five-game sample cannot be used to forecast the next three to four years.
Still, Roberson is a defensive whiz. At 6'7", he's springy enough to stick with point guards and strong enough to keep tabs on the occasional power forward. Markieff Morris is the only wing who defended more isolations during the regular season, and Roberson limited opponents to 40.5 percent shooting in those situations—a surprisingly low number when his assignments routinely included All-NBA bucket-getters.
If he torched twine on 32 or 33 percent of his deep balls, this wouldn't be a conversation. It would have been the second consecutive season in which he cleared a 30 percent success rate, and a harbinger of improvement meaningful enough to plop him beside those guaranteed to enter the max-contract discussion.
Some team might bet on fixing him anyway. All-world defenders don't grow on trees, or even in underground laboratories. But the Thunder might actually depress his value. Where other squads are liable to overpay for in-house talent they cannot afford to replace, they have to worry about potential luxury-tax implications. They didn't sprint into the tax for James Harden, and they're not doing it now for a 47-win squad and player with a broken outside stroke.
Teams That Might Be Willing to Pay the Max: Brooklyn Nets, Indiana Pacers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings
Jeff Teague, Indiana Pacers

Years Experience: 8
Max Salary in Year 1: $30.3 million
Jeff Teague's max-contract candidacy is slim, but it exists—in large part because of his competition.
Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes ranked the 10 point guards set to explore the open market this July. Teague checked in at No. 6, and of the five floor generals in front of him, he's the only one who figures to consider all his options:
Stephen Curry will be two championships deep with the Golden State Warriors (sorry, Cleveland). He isn't leaving. Chris Paul might flee the Clippers, but if he does, it's going to be for the San Antonio Spurs, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
Kyle Lowry is sick and tired of LeBron James lording over the Eastern Conference, but he doesn't have a safe place to seek refuge that positions him to beat Cleveland or avoid the Warriors. Holiday shouldn't be turning down a five-year max or near-max deal if that's what the Pelicans peddle. Maybe Hill leaves Utah, but he's 31. Offseason buyers should max out someone younger before him.
And that brings us to Teague. His peers appear destined to sit tight or limit their scope of exploration, but he's playing for an Indiana Pacers squad that has no idea if Paul George will be with them beyond next season. He can be a free agent in 2018 (player option), isn't eligible for a designated player extension and has a well-documented obsession with the Los Angeles Lakers.
The smartest play for Indiana is to trade George. The risk of losing him for nothing next summer is too great. And if he goes, they enter rebuilding mode, with little reason to funnel long-term money into a soon-to-be 29-year-old point guard. Yet, if they keep him, the Pacers then need to pay Teague so they can put their best foot forward ahead of George's free agency.
There is a plausible—if likely—scenario in which all of the best point guards remain with their current teams and Teague is the only real high-end mercenary. And if his market includes five or more teams that don't have backup plans at their disposal, there's bound to be one that hands him max dough out of desperation, convenience or some combination of both.
Teams That Might Be Willing to Pay the Max: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com. Team salary and player contract information via Basketball Insiders.