NHL Playoffs 2017: Handicapping Each Conference Finalist's Stanley Cup Odds

Three-quarters of the NHL's 2017 playoff field has now been eliminated from competition for the Stanley Cup. Each of the four remaining clubs has had difficult moments, shown its mettle in high-pressure situations and excelled overall in reaching its conference final. And yet, each is only halfway toward its ultimate goal.

Our task here is to predict which of these four stalwarts has what it takes to win two more rounds.

This won't be easy, as these playoffs have defied prediction so far. Four of the NHL's five best regular-season teams have been eliminated, as have seven of the league's 100-point clubs. Three of last year's four conference finalists have fallen by the wayside, too.

Even Pittsburgh, the lone regular-season and 2016 playoff giant left, has been decimated by injury, leaving a field without an obvious favourite.

Still, we'll do our best here to break down some of the key strengths and weaknesses of the four remaining teams and project the remainder of the playoffs.  

Ottawa Senators

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Reason for faith: Erik Karlsson is the league's best defenceman 

Erik Karlsson, a three-time first-team All-Star and two-time Norris Trophy winner, is known as a great defenceman. For years, though, he's been unflatteringly compared to Drew Doughty as if he were a great individual player but not a winner. It's always been a dumb narrative, and hopefully it dies for good this spring.

Karlsson is playing 29 minutes a night and scoring more than a point per game. The Sens have 60 more shot attempts than their opponents when he's on the ice at five-on-five; they have 24 fewer than those same opponents when he's on the bench. No player still in the postseason is more valuable to his franchise.

Reason for fear: Thin margins of success

The Sens are not a team with a vast margin of victory in their games, which means that a little slip could cost them dearly. They are, famously, the only team in this year's playoffs that was outscored in the regular season. Of their eight playoff victories, seven have been by a single goal and five of those required overtime. Their 4-2 series-clincher against the Rangers was a blowout by Ottawa's playoff standards.

Stanley Cup odds

4-1

Anaheim Ducks

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Reason for faith: Even-strength play

Anaheim's roster is remarkably balanced and capable, and that's shown in its even-strength numbers.

At five-on-five, the Ducks have a 25-16 edge in playoff goal differential, meaning they've scored nearly 50 percent more goals than their opponents. This is a direct result of having three deadly forward lines and a deep, balanced defence. This is a team that matches up well against just about everyone, with Ryan Getzlaf doing the heavy lifting offensively while coach Randy Carlyle hard-matches the Ryan Kesler line against the opposition's best players.  

Reason for fear: Discipline and the penalty kill

Anaheim plays a throwback physical brand of hockey, and even with the referees calling playoff games by prison rules, that leads to penalties. This is a problem for a team that has killed off only 69 percent of the calls against it in the postseason. Given that two of the three remaining teams (including third-round opponent Nashville) are running power plays with 20 percent-plus conversion rates, this could end up roasting the Ducks.

Stanley Cup odds

3-1

Pittsburgh Penguins

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Reason for faith: Those ridiculous forwards

The Penguins won in 2015 in large part because they had the luxury of spacing out Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel across three different lines. 

Coach Mike Sullivan has opted for a more compact approach this year, but Pittsburgh is still running two lethal units. Bryan Rust and Matt Cullen are once again playing well in support roles, Patrick Hornqvist has been a constant threat at even strength, and the stunning Jake Guentzel is matching the superstars point for point.

Reason for fear: Kris Letang is still injured

There's a reason the No. 1 and No. 6 defencemen on Pittsburgh's blue line are separated by just 2.5 minutes per game: There just isn't that much of a talent gap between the top and bottom guys. Kris Letang could be counted on to play half the game and do just about everything right, and his loss to injury has moved everybody up a notch and into positions where they aren't perfectly comfortable.

So far, the Penguins have managed to get away with it. But the team's possession game has suffered badly and it isn't hard to tie a scrambling defence corps to that decline.

Stanley Cup odds

3-1

Nashville Predators

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Reason for faith: Dominance across the board

Nashville has scored 28 goals in the playoffs while surrendering just 14. The team's power play is clicking at 20 percent efficiency, the penalty kill is close to 90 percent successful, and at five-on-five the club has two goals for every one scored against it. It's a remarkable run—and one that points to a team without any real weaknesses to exploit.

Reason for fear: Can Pekka Rinne keep this level of play up?

A year ago, Pekka Rinne nearly cost Nashville its first-round series against Anaheim and was arguably the player most responsible for the team's second-round loss to San Jose. This year, he's been the team's clear-cut MVP and an obvious front-runner for the Conn Smythe Trophy. He's posted a .935-or-better save percentage in eight of his 10 starts and held the opposition to one goal or less in six of them.

Rinne's .951 save percentage is the best of any goalie (minimum 10 playoff games) in the salary-cap era. If he can keep it up, the Predators are going to be just about impossible to beat. Yet this season (and indeed, his career) is full of high highs and low lows, and if he falters, Nashville will be tested in a way it has yet to be in these playoffs.

Stanley Cup odds

7-3

Statistics used courtesy of Hockey Reference, Corsica.Hockey and NHL.com.