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Ranking the Top Contenders for the 2017 Conn Smythe Trophy

Carol SchramMay 2, 2017

The Conn Smythe Trophy was first awarded on May 1, 1965, when Montreal Canadiens captain Jean Beliveau was judged to be the NHL's most valuable postseason player. Yes, with only two rounds of playoffs in the Original Six era, the Stanley Cup was awarded by early May back then.

Beliveau finished second in playoff scoring to Bobby Hull of the Chicago Blackhawks in 1965, but he tallied a league-high four game-winning goals in just 13 games as the Habs disposed of the Toronto Maple Leafs in six games before beating Chicago in seven.

In many ways, Beliveau's win laid the foundation for how the NHL's playoff MVPs are judged to this day. In 41 playoff years, the Conn Smythe has been awarded 36 times to players whose team won the Stanley Cup, per NHL.com. The most recent winner from a Cup-losing team was goaltender Jean-Sebastien Giguere from the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim in 2003. 

Here's how past Conn Smythe winners break down by position, according to Hockey Reference:

  • 15 centers, most recently Sidney Crosby of the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2016
  • 10 defensemen, most recently Duncan Keith of the Chicago Blackhawks in 2015
  • 16 goaltenders, most recently Jonathan Quick of the Los Angeles Kings in 2012
  • four left wings, most recently Henrik Zetterberg of the Detroit Red Wings in 2008
  • six right wings, most recently Justin Williams, then of the Los Angeles Kings, in 2014

Even when teams win multiple Cups, the voters from the Professional Hockey Writers Association like to share the wealth. Only five players have recorded multiple Conn Smythe wins—Patrick Roy won three times in 1986, 1993 and 2001, while Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Mike Bossy and Bernie Parent have each won twice.

At 20, Roy was also the youngest player ever to win the Conn Smythe when he led the Canadiens to their 1986 Stanley Cup. The oldest Conn Smythe winners were 36-year-old goaltenders Glenn Hall of the St. Louis Blues in 1968 and Tim Thomas of the Boston Bruins in 2011.

With eight teams still in the hunt for a berth in the Stanley Cup Final, we're a long way from knowing which players have a real shot at the hardware. Through the first round and then some, these performers have separated themselves from the pack in the early going. At this point, it's a goalie-heavy group.

8. Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ottawa Senators

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Playoff Stats to Date: 8 GP, 5-0-5, plus-four, one game-winning goal

What's Working For Him 

Four goals in any game make headlines—just ask Auston Matthews. Four goals in a playoff game? That's even more special.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau's four goals in the Ottawa Senators' 6-5 come-from-behind win over the New York Rangers last Saturday marked the 11th time that a player had turned that trick since 1988, according to Bruce Garrioch of the National Post

Pageau scored twice in the final three minutes and 19 seconds of the third period to erase a 5-3 Rangers lead and force overtime, then ended the game with his fourth goal at the 2:54 mark of double OT.

His big game came out of nowhere. If it's a sign of things to come, that could be great news for Ottawa.

What's Working Against Him 

Not exactly a high-profile player, Pageau was a fourth-round Ottawa draft choice back in 2011. At 5'10" and 180 pounds, he has been seen more as a role player than any type of big-game sniper in his career.

Pageau has topped out at 19 goals so far in his two NHL regular seasons. Unless he stays irrefutably hot and if the Senators go all the way, he's likely to be overshadowed in Conn Smythe voting by All-Star defenseman Erik Karlsson or even proven playoff performer such as Derick Brassard.

7. Jake Guentzel, Pittsburgh Penguins

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Playoff Stats to Date: 8 GP, 7-3-10, plus-four, three game-winning goals

What's Working For Him 

Through eight games, rookie Jake Guentzel of the Pittsburgh Penguins leads all NHL players with seven playoff goals. He has also scored the game-winning goal in three games so far—tops in the league and accounting for half of Pittsburgh's game-winners to date.

Guentzel's scoring success hasn't come completely out of left field. Though he was a call-up from the AHL who played just 40 regular-season games during his rookie season, his 33 points ranked him third in points per game among rookies who played more than 10 games, behind Calder Trophy nominees Patrik Laine of the Winnipeg Jets and Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

What's Working Against Him 

A rookie has to be truly extraordinary to earn serious Conn Smythe consideration, and Guentzel's status as a third-round draft pick who worked his way up from the minors doesn't exactly mark him as a blue-chipper with the winds of the hype machine at his back.

Though Guentzel leads his team in goals, he's not the points leader. That title belongs to 2009 Conn Smythe winner Evgeni Malkin, who has 15 points. Teammates Phil Kessel (12) and Sidney Crosby (11) also currently rank above him in the overall playoff scoring race.

Speaking of Crosby, Guentzel has done most of his damage while skating on his captain's wing. Crosby left Game 3 after taking a hard hit in the first period and his prognosis for future games is uncertain, according to SiriusXM Radio.

If Crosby's out for any period of time, that would remove the 2016 Conn Smythe winner from contention for this year's trophy, but it would also hamper Guentzel's chances of continuing to perform at his current levels. With Crosby sidelined for most of the game, Guentzel was pointless in Game 3—for just the third time so far in the playoffs.

6. Jake Allen, St. Louis Blues

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Playoff Stats to Date: 8 GP, 5-3, 2.04 goals-against average, .936 save percentage

What's Working For Him 

Jake Allen is the main reason why the St. Louis Blues advanced past the Minnesota Wild and into the second round of the playoffs. In Round 1, Allen gave up just eight goals on 182 shots over five games, amassing a .956 save percentage. He set the tone for the series early, stopping 51 of 52 shots in the Blues' 2-1 overtime road win over the Wild in Game 1.

In his first year as a true full-time starter, the 26-year-old suffered a crisis of confidence midway through the regular season, but Allen turned his year around after Mike Yeo took over as head coach on February 1.

His regular-season record with Yeo behind the bench was among the best in the league through the stretch run at 16-7-2, with a .938 save percentage and 1.85 goals-against average. A mediocre first half helped the Blues fly under the radar as they climbed the standings during February, March and April.

What's Working Against Him 

Allen's playoff numbers aren't trending in a positive direction. After he gave up just one goal in each of his first three games of Round 1, the Nashville Predators have scored an average of three goals a game in their first three contests against the Blues. 

As good as Allen has been so far, he's also up against an even hotter goaltender in his Round 2 matchup: Pekka Rinne. The Blues have hung in against surprising Nashville but even with home-ice advantage, there's no guarantee that St. Louis will be advancing to its second straight Western Conference Final. There's no Conn Smythe hope without, at the very least, a berth in the Stanley Cup Final.

If the Blues do make it all the way, Allen might find himself running into competition from his team's skaters. Jaden Schwartz leads the team with seven points, and two of his three goals have been game-winners. Don't count out game-breaking Vladimir Tarasenko, the sniper whose late goal in Game 2 earned the Blues their first win of the series so far against Nashville.

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5. Braden Holtby, Washington Capitals

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Playoff Stats to Date: 9 GP, 5-4, 2.54 goals-against average, .914 save percentage

What's Working For Him 

Holtby is the reigning Vezina Trophy holder, a Vezina finalist again this year and the workhorse starting goaltender for the two-time Presidents' Trophy winners in Washington. There's no question that the 27-year-old is a top-notch netminder—and that the Capitals will need him to be at his best if they hope to break their playoff curse and reach the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 1998.

Holtby's overall numbers haven't matched up with some of his competitors so far in the playoffs. After the Capitals fell behind the Toronto Maple Leafs 2-1, he delivered three straight wins to help his team advance, and he bounced back well from a subpar performance against Pittsburgh last Saturday to backstop the Caps to a 3-2 overtime win and get back into the series.

The margin of error is small in the playoffs. For the most part, Holtby has come out on the right side so far—4-2 in overtime and 5-3 in one-goal games.

What's Working Against Him 

Holtby isn't going to get a sniff at the Conn Smythe if the Caps don't knock off the Penguins—a challenge that has been too much for them in the past. After nearly letting Game 3 slip away in the last two minutes of regulation, Washington's overtime win could be the momentum-changer that the Caps need to finally exorcise their demons.

If Washington is able to ride that wave to a serious Stanley Cup run, Holtby will get plenty of MVP competition from his teammates. Alex Ovechkin is under the radar so far with seven points in nine games but could take center stage at any time. T.J. Oshie is a big-game player who already has one-game-winning goal under his belt, and quiet Nicklas Backstrom leads the team with 10 points.

Also, don't count out perennial playoff star and 2014 Conn Smythe winner Justin Williams, who continues to show how he can deliver big contributions in key moments.

4. Jakob Silfverberg, Anaheim Ducks

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Playoff Stats to Date: 7 GP, 6-2-8, plus-one, one game-winning goal

What's Working For Him 

Though he's not as well-known as the Anaheim Ducks' power-players Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry and Ryan Kesler, 26-year-old Jakob Silfverberg has been the Ducks' offensive MVP so far in the playoffs. He's one point behind Getzlaf in Ducks team scoring, but his six goals rank him second overall in playoff scoring.

Silfverberg's three-point performance on Sunday earned him first-star honors and gave the Ducks life as they cut the deficit to 2-1 in their second-round series against the Edmonton Oilers.

Not just a scorer, Silfverberg is also part of Anaheim's key shutdown line with Ryan Kesler and Andrew Cogliano, and he plays in all situations.

Silfverberg was sheepish when his coach, Randy Carlyle, compared him to former Ottawa Senators captain and Swedish countryman Daniel Alfredsson after his big performance in Sunday's win. "Obviously it's a huge compliment. I didn't know (Randy) said that," Silfverberg told Eric Stephens of the Orange Country Register.

Alfredsson tied for the playoff scoring lead with 22 points when his Ottawa Senators fell to the Ducks in five games in the 2007 Stanley Cup Final. If Silfverberg can go on a similar run, he'll definitely have a chance to keep his name in the Conn Smythe conversation.

What's Working Against Him 

Before Sunday's win, the Ducks looked like they were nearly dead and buried in this year's playoffs. The team has continued to battle injury issues, with Patrick Eaves and Kevin Bieksa the latest players to be sidelined, and the home-ice fortress that served the Ducks so well in Round 1 against the Calgary Flames proved to be penetrable in two home losses to Edmonton.

If the Ducks do get through this round and go on a run to the final, Conn Smythe attention could also end up going to teammates like Getzlaf and Kesler or to goaltender John Gibson if he suddenly catches fire. Silfverberg is currently Anaheim's front-runner, but there's still a long way to go.

3. Cam Talbot, Edmonton Oilers

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Playoff Stats to Date: 9 GP, 6-3, 2.47 goals-against average, .918 save percentage, two shutouts

What's Working For Him 

Now in his second season as an NHL starter, Cam Talbot has proved that general manager Peter Chiarelli, and the Edmonton Oilers knew what they were doing when they gave up three draft picks to bring him into the organization during the summer of 2015.

Talbot led all goaltenders in games and minutes played during the regular season as he helped the Oilers secure their first playoff spot in more than a decade. He then outduelled another up-and-coming netminder in Martin Jones as the Oilers took out the San Jose Sharks in six games in Round 1.

What's Working Against Him

That 6-2 loss to Anaheim on Sunday wasn't exactly Talbot's finest moment.

But he survived a 7-0 blowout in Game 4 of Round 1, which allowed the San Jose Sharks to tie their series 2-2. From there, Talbot shut the door long enough to allow the Oilers to mount a comeback from a 3-1 deficit, then dominate the overtime of Game 5 and ultimately eliminate the Sharks in Game 6.

If the Oilers are able to advance to their first Stanley Cup Final since 2006, Talbot's fiercest competition for the Conn Smythe is most likely to come from his team captain Connor McDavid. The NHL's leading scorer in the regular season, McDavid has already earned a nomination for the Hart Trophy in just his second NHL season.

McDavid ranks second in Oilers team scoring with six points, three back of Leon Draisaitl, but he could explode at any time. If he rides a strong finish to a Conn Smythe win, McDavid would become the youngest-ever winner of the trophy at 20 years and four months. Patrick Roy was 20 years and eight months old when he won his first Conn Smythe with the Montreal Canadiens in May 1986. 

2. Pekka Rinne, Nashville Predators

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Playoff Stats to Date: 7 GP, 6-1, 1.38 goals-against average, .950 save percentage, two shutouts

What's Working For Him 

After their four-game sweep of the Chicago Blackhawks in Round 1, the Nashville Predators quickly became the darlings of this year's playoffs. The Preds have made the playoffs in nine of 12 seasons since the 2004-05 lockout, so they've paid their dues. Their solid run to Game 7 of the second round last season also left them on the cusp of taking the next step to becoming true contenders.

If the Preds go all the way, goaltender Pekka Rinne is most likely to be selected as the team MVP. He was outstanding against the Blackhawks, making highlight-reel saves while allowing just three goals in four games and has continued his strong play in the second round against the St. Louis Blues.

Rinne, now 34, is also a career Nashville Predator—drafted by the team in the eighth round back in 2004 and ascending to the starter's role in 2008-09. After Shea Weber was traded to Montreal during the 2016 offseason, Rinne is now the longest-serving member of the current Predators group—the anchor for a young team with plenty of promise. 

Up front, Nashville hasn't been dominated by any single star. The team's top line of Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson has been sharing headlines with defensemen like Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis and P.K. Subban. Rinne's chances of claiming an individual award are strong if the Predators continue to get important contributions from players up and down their lineup.

What's Working Against Him 

At this point, the biggest obstacle for Rinne is the St. Louis Blues. The Nashville/St. Louis matchup is one of the tightest of the second round, and while the Preds currently hold the 2-1 edge in the series, there's no guarantee they'll progress to their first-ever Western Conference Final, let alone a Stanley Cup Final. 

1. Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins

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Playoff Stats to Date: 8 GP, 6-2, 2.44 goals-against average, .933 save percentage

What's Working For Him 

If Pittsburgh gets back to the Stanley Cup Final for the second straight year, Marc-Andre Fleury's redemption story might be too appealing for the voters to resist. Fleury won a Cup as a 24-year-old in his third NHL season, back in 2009.

A solid regular-season goaltender, Fleury struggled in subsequent playoff years, including in 2016 when he handed over the net to rookie Matt Murray.

After spending the 2016-17 season as Pittsburgh's backup, an injury to Murray during warm-ups before Game 1 of the first round of the playoffs suddenly put Fleury in the line of fire—and he has responded magnificently.

His current .933 save percentage is one of his best-ever performances in any postseason and is coming while the Penguins have been allowing 37.3 shots against per game—the most of any team in this year's playoffs.

What's Working Against Him 

Tom Gulitti of NHL.com reported on Monday that Murray is back on skates but has not yet practiced in his equipment, so his return is still at least a little way off.

If Fleury can comfortably power the Penguins past Washington and through to the third round, the net should be his for the foreseeable future. If he shows cracks at any point, Murray could jump back into the starter's role, potentially squashing Fleury's Conn Smythe run.

Also working against Fleury—his teammates. The top four players in the postseason scoring race are all Penguins—Malkin, Kessel, Crosby and Guentzel. If the voters find themselves looking to choose a worthy Conn Smythe recipient from the Penguins lineup, the voting could end up fracturing, because they'll have plenty of options available.

All stats courtesy of NHL.com, current through games completed May 1.

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