NFL Offseason Scenarios That Could Change Everything We Think About 2017

Some of you probably think you've got it figured out. The heart of free agency is behind us and next month's draft might not change the NFL's pecking order. On paper, you know who looks good and who looks bad, and right now it doesn't feel as though much could happen to change that. 

But much will happen. Because the NFL is a wild league, and none of us can make accurate predictions in March. Between now and the start of the 2017 season, there will almost inevitably be trades, cuts, draft decisions, injuries and even retirement announcements that will alter the impending campaign. 

Let's break down some of the not-completely-impossible hypothetical scenarios that could severely impact our perception of what's to come in 2017. 

The New Orleans Saints Acquire Malcolm Butler from New England

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The New England Patriots have already acquired wide receiver Brandin Cooks from the New Orleans Saints in a deal that many figured would have included top Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler, especially after New England spent big bucks on corner Stephon Gilmore on the first day of free agency. 

But Butler—a restricted free agent—wasn't, and still isn't, under contract, making him temporarily untradeable. If or when the Super Bowl XLIX hero signs his tender with the Pats, that'll change. And while it's possible he'll sign an offer sheet in New Orleans that the Patriots decide not to match, it's far more likely that Butler signs his tender with New England before being flipped to New Orleans in order sign a long-term deal with the Saints. 

In fact, Butler has already been talking to the Saints about said deal, and the parameters of that contract are "mostly in place," according to CSNNE’s Michael Giardi 

This whole thing could become somewhat complicated if both parties don't tread lightly and it becomes obvious that the Patriots "didn’t apply the RFA tender to Butler with a good-faith intention to employ him for 2017 at the amount of the tender offer," as Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio put it. 

But without getting caught up in that, what's important is there's a decent chance Butler becomes a member of the Saints in the very near future. 

And that could change the way we think about an oft-maligned Saints defense—a unit that did at least show signs of improvement last year and would stand to benefit greatly from the addition of a 27-year-old Pro Bowl cover man who was graded by Pro Football Focus as the fifth-best corner in football in 2016. 

So long as Drew Brees is running the offense, the Saints have a shot practically every Sunday. Throw in a guy like Butler and they might become respectable enough on the other side of the ball to make a surprise run in 2017. 

Ben Roethlisberger Retires

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We've been conditioned lately to expect unexpected retirements. NFL players have been walking away in their prime with much more frequency, which is why it's a little bit concerning that star Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger hasn't exactly assured fans he'll be back in 2017. 

"I'm going to take this offseason to evaluate, to consider all options," Roethlisberger told 93.7 The Fan in Pittsburgh in January. "To consider health, and family and things like that and just kind of take some time away to evaluate next season, if there's going to be a next season."

And, according to Dale Lolley of the Observer-Reporter, Roethlisberger would only admit last week that he's "leaning toward" returning for the 2017 campaign. 

If a strong Appalachian wind gust were to change that, the Steelers would be in big trouble without their five-time Pro Bowl quarterback. You'd have to think that they'd immediately become suitors for guys like Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Colin Kaepernick or Jimmy Garoppolo, if any of them were still available.

Backup Landry Jones isn't the answer, even with the support of Pro Bowlers Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. But without Roethlisberger, there's a chance Jones would have to start in 2017. That would immediately make the Baltimore Ravens or Cincinnati Bengals the favorites in the AFC North—a division which, at this point, appears to belong to Pittsburgh. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars Replace Blake Bortles

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There are two types of teams in this league: Those in need of a starting quarterback, and those not in need of a starting quarterback. It's easy to categorize most teams, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are a wild card this offseason.

That's because the Jags have a new head coach in Doug Marrone as well as a new executive vice-president of football operations in Tom Coughlin. According to ESPN.com's Michael DiRocco, Coughlin in February "didn't completely commit to Bortles as the starter but didn't give an indication that the team would be moving away from Bortles, either."

There have since been multiple indications that the team will stick with the 2014 No. 3 overall pick, but a poor spring and/or summer could change that.

Bortles has thrown at least 16 interceptions and has failed to complete 60 percent of his passes in all three of his NFL seasons, and the Jags have lost 34 of his 45 starts. It certainly appeared as though he regressed in 2016, so if that trend continues the Jaguars could cut bait earlier than expected. 

Whether that would help or hurt the 2017 Jags is debatable, but a dramatic change at quarterback would certainly shift the narrative surrounding a high-priced, talented team that is trying desperately to become a contender this season. 

The Cleveland Browns Don't Take Myles Garrett First Overall

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In certain years past, it was so obvious that the team with the No. 1 overall pick was going to take a specific player with that selection that there'd be no drama at the top of the draft. Oftentimes, the team and the player would have already agreed to terms on a contract. 

It has felt as though we've been headed in that direction this offseason, with basically everybody in the business predicting that the Cleveland Browns will select former Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett first overall. 

But what if that isn't a foregone conclusion? What if the league's most unpredictable front office decides instead to use that top selection on a quarterback? Or what if they decide to add to their draft pick collection by trading the first pick in exchange for multiple early selections?

After all, they also possess the No. 12 overall pick, so if somebody is more in love with Garrett than they are and that team is willing to give Cleveland an arm and a leg for the pick, the Browns could still take a quarterback early. 

If Garrett winds up anywhere but Cleveland, the 2017 season will look and feel a heck of a lot different than many of us have imagined. And that'll especially be the case if he lands with a good team like the Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers or Cincinnati Bengals, all of whom possess top-10 picks. The guy is such a talent that he could seriously put a team like that over the top as a rookie. 

And if the Browns do stand pat but take a quarterback like Deshaun Watson or Mitchell Trubisky, the dynamics would change immediately with regard to the continuously spinning 2017 quarterback carousel.

To boot, quarterbacks chosen first overall enter the league with immediate pressure these days, and Watson or Trubisky wouldn't be immune to that in quarterback and win-starved Cleveland. 

There's a good chance the Browns keep it simple and draft Garrett shortly after 8 p.m. ET on April 27. But there's a half-decent chance they do something else. And if the latter transpires, there'll be drama. 

The New England Patriots Trade Jimmy Garoppolo

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Because life isn't fair, it appears the Patriots have two excellent quarterbacks on their roster. And because only one player can throw the ball forward on a given play, that has a lot of folks wondering if they'll trade Tom Brady's promising young backup, Jimmy Garoppolo, before he has a chance to leave for no return when his rookie contract expires next offseason. 

But the Patriots are reportedly driving a hard bargain, according to Mike Garafolo of NFL Network and Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald. That is possibly because the 39-year-old Brady is reportedly mortal and technically the oldest position player in the NFL. 

Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio reported last week that "there’s a persistent belief within league circles that the Patriots truly want to keep Garoppolo." And the Patriots are smarter than me, so I won't fault them for that. 

But that could change, and everyone has a price. If somebody—likely Cleveland, which has plenty of draft currency and a vacancy at quarterback—makes the Patriots an offer they can't refuse, the NFL will be better off in 2017.

All the evidence indicates that Garoppolo is one of the best 32 quarterbacks in a 32-team league. He's 25 and he's got a 106.2 career passer rating. Small sample? Absolutely, but who doesn't want to see what this guy can do in a full-time role? 

I'd rather see Garoppolo under center somewhere in 2017 than an ungroomed rookie, especially if I have to deal with watching dudes like Josh McCown, Mike Glennon and Brian Hoyer elsewhere. 

Tony Romo Goes to the Denver Broncos

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Four-time Pro Bowl quarterback Tony Romo no longer has a starting job with the Dallas Cowboys, and logic indicates he'll wind up with either the Denver Broncos or Houston Texans in 2017. A third door also exists, but before getting to that let's break down the two most likely scenarios, starting with Romo in Denver. 

If the Broncos land Romo via trade or free agency, they'll immediately become the favorite in the tough AFC West. They won the Super Bowl with poor quarterback play two years ago, but they learned in 2016 that lightning is unlikely to strike twice in that regard. You don't typically contend these days without a good quarterback, and Romo was the league's highest-rated passer when he was last healthy in 2014. 

Sure, he's had trouble staying on the field since then, but the Broncos don't necessarily need 16 complete games out of Romo, and they don't need him to be a superhero. They just need something better than Trevor Siemian, who completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes while posting the league's eighth-lowest qualified passer rating last season, or Paxton Lynch, who probably isn't ready as he begins to learn a new offense as a sophomore. 

The Broncos still have one of the best defenses in the league, and Romo has the ability to help the offense pull its weight. If that happens, Denver will likely be in the Super Bowl conversation come winter. 

But where would that leave the Texans? They traded Brock Osweiler after that experiment blew up in their face almost immediately, and now they're down to Tom Savage and Brandon Weeden. You'd have to think that means they're in on Romo, especially considering how aggressive they've been in pursuing potential franchise quarterbacks of late.

Losing him to Denver would be tough, especially because they'll have the makeup of a contender with the return of J.J. Watt, and because they won't likely be able to land a Week 1 starter in the draft. 

That could mean bringing in a free agent like Jay Cutler or Colin Kaepernick as a consolation prize. Both have had their moments, but there are reasons they remain unsigned. 

Tony Romo Goes to the Houston Texans

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If Romo winds up in Houston, the Texans will undoubtedly be viewed as the favorite in the AFC South. And if Romo and Watt can stay healthy in 2017, they could legitimately make a Super Bowl run. 

That scenario could also hurt Cutler and Kaepernick if they're still lingering on the open market, because it's entirely possible Broncos general manager John Elway could decide to stick with Siemian and/or Lynch, leaving those free-agent veterans waiting for an opportunity to arise as a result of injuries or poor play elsewhere. 

In other words, where Romo lands is likely to impact several teams and several well-known players in a significant way. 

Tony Romo Stays with the Dallas Cowboys

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Behind door No. 3? Romo stays in Dallas throughout the offseason.

It's far-fetched, but not inconceivable. See, if a trade doesn't come to fruition—and it's clear the Cowboys haven't yet been blown away by a trade offer—they could release Romo as a post-June 1 cut. But saving money that late in the offseason isn't necessarily a huge advantage. In fact, you could argue that they'd be better off holding on to Romo as insurance for Dak Prescott in case of an injury or a sophomore slump.

Doing so could also give the Cowboys a chance to capitalize on another team's desperation later on, because the moment a starting quarterback on a contending team goes down with an injury—and that happens almost every summer—Romo's trade value would skyrocket.

Call it the Teddy Bridgewater-Sam Bradford effect. 

If the Cowboys keep Romo for now, it could impact the draft as well as the second wave of free agency. But even more interestingly, it could result in Romo starting in September for a team none of us would have expected. 

Jay Cutler Retires

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Of course, it's also possible Cutler doesn't want to be somebody's consolation prize, or that he'll walk away before that opportunity presents itself. As I wrote last week, he's always been a rather enigmatic character, and NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reported in February there's "no guarantee" Cutler plays anywhere in 2017. 

Cutler is only 33 and is just a year removed from the best season of his 11-year career. But he's made more than $100 million during that span, so could anyone blame him for deciding to retire rather than expose himself to more injuries? 

Just as it's hard to imagine professional football these days without Roethlisberger, a Cutler-free NFL would take some getting used to. He's been a Week 1 starter in each of the last 10 seasons, all with popular teams (Denver in 2007 and 2008; Chicago ever since). 

But if Romo winds up in Houston, Denver keeps with the status quo, Roethlisberger continues to play and the Jaguars stick with Bortles, Cutler could be left with a choice: Sign somewhere as a backup, wait for an injury or retire. 

Don't be surprised if the third scenario comes to fruition, which would be a shame because I gotta believe Cutler is still one of the best 32 quarterbacks in the game. 

The Washington Redskins Trade Kirk Cousins

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In case you haven't noticed, a lot of potentially game-changing scenarios this offseason pertain to the veteran-quarterback carousel. We've talked about Romo, Cutler, Kaepernick and Garoppolo and how offseason moves involving them could change the 2017 NFL season, but let's not forget about Kirk Cousins. 

The Washington Redskins quarterback has become the poster boy for the franchise tag the last two offseasons. Hit with it again last month, Cousins has been the subject of trade rumors ever since. 

There was a report from ESPN's Chris Mortensen that Cousins "appealed personally" to Redskins owner Dan Snyder for a trade, and another from NFL Media's Mike Silver that "it's more likely than not" that Cousins winds up reuniting with former Redskins offensive coordinator and new 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. 

Still, nothing has happened, and Cousins has signed his tender. He's slated to make $23.94 million in 2017. And while the 49ers have money to burn, that number would make it tough to sign the Pro Bowl quarterback to a long-term contract, especially when you're giving up something else in a trade. 

But if by chance they work something out and Cousins is jettisoned from Washington, the real impact will be felt in the NFC East.

Sure, the 49ers might be bad instead of terrible, or maybe even half-decent instead of bad if you're an optimist. But without the league's seventh-highest rated passer from last season, the Redskins would almost certainly take a step backwards on offense. And in an always-close division, that could severely alter the paths ahead for the Cowboys, Giants and Eagles. 

The Los Angeles Chargers Trade Philip Rivers

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Imagining the NFL without Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh or Cutler in Chicago is weird. Taking quarterback Philip Rivers away from the Chargers is just as strange, regardless of whether they call San Diego or Los Angeles home.

That being said, this wouldn't be a terrible time for the Bolts to consider dealing their 35-year-old signal-caller. They're clearly the worst team in a strong division and they're no longer trying to placate disgruntled fans in San Diego. New city, new coaching staff, new fan base (you have to squint, but it's there), new quarterback? 

Rivers would mean more to a quarterback-needy contender right now than he does to a team that has won nine games in the last two seasons combined and appears to be losing more ground in the AFC West.

That could explain why trade rumors swirled earlier this offseason, according to the Huffington Post's Jordan Schultz, and general manager Tom Telesco didn't exactly quash that buzz when—according to ESPN.com's Eric D. Williams—he said on NFL Network "you never say never" regarding the possibility of drafting a quarterback with the No. 7 overall pick. 

If the Texans don't land Romo, might they consider sending a limb or two to Los Angeles in exchange for a six-time Pro Bowler? Could San Francisco or Denver make a pitch? Rivers has a stronger resume than both Romo and Cutler, so a late-career move to a contender could shake up the entire league in 2017. 

Teddy Bridgewater Recovers

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Late last offseason, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffered an injury that changed everything we thought about the NFL in 2016. Now, Bridgewater's trying to recover from that catastrophic knee injury in order to again shift the narrative for a season. 

It's not looking good. 

Bleacher Report's Jason Cole reported in January that Bridgewater is expected to miss the entire 2017 season. The team hasn't officially ruled him out, but general manager Rick Spielman told Pro Football Talk earlier this month that there's still no timeline for his recovery. 

These things can change in a hurry, though, and professional athletes are quite often exceptional when it comes to rehabilitation. If by chance Bridgewater can defy the odds and return at some point in 2017, he might be able to join the fast track so many of us had him pegged for before everything hit the fan with that career-threatening injury last August.

He'd also have a chance to turn a talented Vikings team into a contender, while saving us from having to watch Sam "Safe Pass" Bradford for another full season. 

Adrian Peterson Doesn't Find a Job

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This is psychological more than anything. We need to prepare ourselves for the possibility that Adrian Peterson might no longer be an NFL running back in 2017.

It shouldn't be hard to do, considering Peterson has missed the vast majority of two of the last three NFL seasons, but he was still one of the faces of the league entering those campaigns. He was still the top pick in your fantasy draft, still that once-in-a-generation back, and a superstar seemingly immune to aging. 

But Peterson is done in Minnesota, and he remains unemployed as we approach a draft that is flush with high-quality running backs. Soon, the number of backs on the open market will increase, not decrease. The pool is getting deeper, and Peterson doesn't have much going for him. 

Not only has he averaged just 2.9 yards per carry in his last nine starts, but Peterson is old (he turns 32 this month, which is ancient in that realm), he lacks durability (he missed most of 2016 due to a knee injury) and he faces questions regarding his character (he missed virtually the entire 2014 season while on the commissioner’s exempt list after being indicted on child-abuse charges). 

Peterson might find a gig at some point this spring or summer, especially if he's willing to take a huge pay cut. It's even possible a team will gamble that he's got one more odds-defying season in him while considering the bump in jersey sales that would come along with his addition. But there's a chance neither development happens, and we've seen the last of Adrian Peterson. 

And if that's the case, the NFL won't feel the same this year—especially when you're sitting down for your fantasy draft.