Predicting Who's In, Who's Out for NHL Playoff Bubble Teams Post-Trade Deadline

After more than 60 games of a grinding NHL schedule, precious little has been decided in terms of playoff seedings, and most of the 30 teams have at least a chance to make the postseason. This traffic jam impacted the trade deadline and suggests the playoffs have already begun in many cities—wins this time of year are even more important because of the closeness of the races.

The Eastern Conference has been dominated this season by the Metropolitan Division. Four teams—Washington Capitals, Columbus Blue Jackets, Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Rangers—are running away in the standings, leaving the rest of the conference behind and securing playoff spots early.

The Atlantic Division is much weaker this season, and the result is a free-for-all involving the entire division and the remaining Metropolitan Division clubs. Only five of the 16 teams—Detroit Red Wings, Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils, Buffalo Sabres and Philadelphia Flyers—are in real trouble, and a prolonged winning streak could change fortunes.

In the Western Conference, teams have a clearer idea about where they stand. Of the 14 teams who play in the west, only two—Colorado Avalanche and Arizona Coyotes—can safely be described as completely out of the picture. However, in actual fact, there are just three teams—Calgary Flames, St. Louis Blues and Los Angeles Kings—fighting for the final playoff spot. The Western Conference races could be over in a week.

The website SportsClubStats estimates the chances of teams making the playoffs and now has seven teams as locks. Here are the teams whose fate is still in the balance and what we might see in the coming weeks.

Eastern Conference: Who Is a Lock?

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These teams are currently sitting in playoff spots and will most likely finish the season the same way.

Washington Capitals

• 62 GP, 42-13-7, 91 points, first in Metropolitan Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 100 percent

This might be the best Washington Capitals squad in team history. No longer a one-trick pony, Alexander Ovechkin has all kinds of offensive support, and the team boasts three dangerous lines. Fine goaltending from Braden Holtby and a solid defensive group gives Washington everything it needs for a deep run. The deadline addition of Kevin Shattenkirk makes them a strong favorite to go deep, possibly winning the Stanley Cup for the first time in team history. 

Columbus Blue Jackets

• 61 GP, 39-16-6, 84 points, second in Metropolitan Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 100 percent

In the entire history of the Blue Jackets, this is easily a unique season. A fast start led to a strong overall season, and the team is poised to finish with its best record ever. Reasons for improvement include better overall depth, an exceptional power play and goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. Columbus made depth moves and would have made the playoffs without them.

Pittsburgh Penguins

• 62 GP, 38-16-8, 84 points, third in Metropolitan Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 100 percent

Defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh have so much quality it is easy to forget the team also has impressive depth. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin get the headlines, but the Penguins have three quality scoring lines and are able to ice superior pairings most nights. Two top flight goalies add to this strong group. One area that is of concern is injury to the blue line, and a deadline deal for Mark Streit should help over the long playoff season.

New York Rangers

• 61 GP, 39-16-6, 84 points, second in Metropolitan Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 99.9 percent

Despite the record and the fact the Rangers are clearly heading for the playoffs, the club is having an unusual year. Henrik Lundqvist, the team's rock, has endured a difficult season, and New York has relied on backup Antti Raanta often. His performance in the last 10 games suggests Lundqvist is getting back into form, and the deadline deal for Brendan Smith should help defensively. New York is the fourth Metropolitan Division team to rip through the regular season but perhaps the least balanced.

Montreal Canadiens

• 64 GP, 35-21-8, 78 points, first in Atlantic Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 98.1 percent

The Montreal Canadiens are enjoying a strong rebound season in 2016-17, mostly due to better health of goalie Carey Price. Max Pacioretty is having a fantastic year, and the Canadiens need him because goals have been hard to come by. Although Montreal was active at the deadline—adding players like Dwight King, Jordie Benn and Brandon Davidson—the offensive upgrade anticipated did not arrive. Although Montreal is in the lock category on merit, the club should be considered less likely to make it to the Finals based on its deadline. 

Eastern Conference: Who Is Close?

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These teams are currently sitting in playoff spots but have a way to go before they secure a berth.

Boston Bruins

• 63 GP, 33-24-6, 72 points, third in Atlantic Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 80.4 percent

Not so long ago, the Bruins appeared to be in some trouble for a playoff spot, but a 7-3-0 run in the last 10 games has the team in a far better place. Led offensively by Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak, the Bruins scored over 40 goals in 10 games. If it can sustain that kind of production, Boston might win the division.

Ottawa Senators

• 61 GP, 33-22-6, 72 points, second in Atlantic Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 79.9 percent

Ottawa is having an unusual season. A more button-down style than we have seen previously from Ottawa has the team in strong contention for the postseason. Increased depth scoring—the Senators have eight men with 10 or more goals—and strong goaltending have been the key. Craig Anderson and Mike Condon have been an effective tandem during a trying season, and Ottawa has a chance to win the division in 2016-17.

Toronto Maple Leafs

• 62 GP, 28-21-13, 69 points, fourth in Atlantic Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 54.4 percent

Toronto is enjoying a fantastic recovery season owing mostly to a historically significant crop of impact rookies. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander have given a popgun offense a major upgrade, and Maple Leafs fans are enjoying a high-octane offense for the first time in years. The team will need to improve defense over the summer but is heading in an exciting direction.

Eastern Conference: Who Is Out, but with a Chance

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There are three more teams in the Eastern Conference worth mentioning. 

New York Islanders

• 61 GP, 29-22-10, 68 points, fifth in Metropolitan Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 45.5 percent

The New York Islanders have surged since placing Doug Weight behind the bench. Star John Tavares and unheralded goalie Thomas Greiss have led the way this season, and the team is 12-5-2 since Weight took over as coach. One curious item involved inactivity at the trade deadline: The Islanders were quiet. It seems the organization feels now is not the time to add while giving up future assets.

The Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning are worth noting. Despite having less than a 20 percent chance of making the postseason according to SportsClubStats, both teams were active at the deadline and could get back into the race.

Western Conference: Who Is a Lock?

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These teams are currently sitting in playoff spots and will most likely finish the season the same way.

Minnesota Wild

• 61 GP, 41-14-6, 88 points, first in Central Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 100 percent

Minnesota has been a strong team all year, led by brilliant goaltending from Devan Dubnyk and two outstanding two-way forwards, Mikael Granlund and Mikko Koivu. The addition of Eric Staal in the offseason helped the scoring and checking, and the club has more than enough firepower to go deep this spring. The deadline deal that added center Martin Hanzal could be a major factor in the postseason.

Chicago Blackhawks

• 63 GP, 40-18-5, 85 points, second in Central Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 100 percent

Chicago is coming on strong now and has the look of a championship team. Small tweaks seem to have worked, and the addition of Johnny Oduya at the deadline may help as well. Patrick Kane is on fire, scoring 11 goals in the last 10 games. Perhaps more importantly, Jonathan Toews is also rolling and having a major impact. The goaltending has been astonishing as well and sets up a possible surge by Chicago to another Stanley Cup in the coming months. Chicago has the look of a complete team.

San Jose Sharks

• 62 GP, 37-18-7, 81 points, first in Pacific Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 100 percent

San Jose has been at the top of the Pacific Division most of this season without breaking a sweat. Most of the news from San Jose this year has surrounded Brent Burns having an incredible season and the length of Joe Thornton's beard. However, the club is even deeper than last season, and the deadline move that brought in Jannik Hansen from the Vancouver Canucks is likely to help. A team that loses the Stanley Cup Final usually has a difficult regular season because the only thing that matters is getting back to the Finals. San Jose, a veteran team, has handled it well.

Edmonton Oilers

• 64 GP, 34-22-8, 76 points, second in Pacific Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 99.5 percent

Edmonton has been out of the playoffs since 2006, so fans of the club may take some time before remembering how to celebrate. Brilliant sophomore Connor McDavid and goalie Cam Talbot have been the key men for the Oilers this season. Although the club did little at the deadline—adding only David Desharnais—the expectation is that Edmonton will be a difficult opponent in the first round.

Anaheim Ducks

• 63 GP, 32-21-10, 74 points, third in Pacific Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 95.5 percent

Anaheim has cobbled together a successful season with balanced scoring and a steady, mobile defense. Adding 20-goal winger Patrick Eaves at the deadline was a perfect fit and should give the Ducks even more depth offensively. One of the best things about Anaheim's year is that it is a strong contender without having anyone posting a career season. The Ducks are very good and should not be discounted.

Nashville Predators

• 63 GP, 32-22-9, 73 points, third in Central Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 93.2 percent

Nashville is doing a difficult thing this season: contending while also seeing a transition in several areas. Filip Forsberg is emerging as the top scoring option among forwards, and young goalie Juuse Saros is serving notice that he may be the goalie of the future—and the future may be close at hand. The club did little at the deadline, adding some offense with P.A. Parenteau, but could go a long way even during a period of transition. That is a sign of a sound hockey team.

Western Conference: Who Is Close?

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These teams are currently sitting in playoff spots but have a way to go before securing a berth. Two of these three teams will make it.

Calgary Flames

• 64 GP, 34-25-4, 72 points, fourth in Pacific Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 82 percent

Calgary has been on fire and is 7-2-1 in its last 10 games. If the club can repeat that record over the next 10, Alberta will have two playoff teams this spring. Much of the improvement comes from Johnny Gaudreau returning to form; he is 2-7-9 in the last 10 and has been dangerous. The big add for Calgary at the deadline was defender Michael Stone, who has played well in early games with the Flames. We are at a point where Calgary is close to being a lock, but it plays the Los Angeles Kings three more times, so there are obstacles to overcome.

St. Louis Blues

• 62 GP, 31-26-5, 67 points, fourth in Central Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 76.8 percent

St. Louis finds itself in an unusual spot at this year's deadline as the club played the role of seller in sending away defender Kevin Shattenkirk. There are good things on this team, including sniper Vladimir Tarasenko having a strong year, but the Blues have a different feel this season. A coaching change and trading Shattenkirk for futures give this year's run for the playoffs a melancholy feel.

Los Angeles Kings

• 63 GP, 30-27-6, 66 points, fifth in Pacific Division
• Playoff chances per Sports Club Stats: 48 percent

Los Angeles has endured a very difficult year, with injuries and poor play putting the club in a precarious position at the deadline. Adding goalie Ben Bishop and winger Jarome Iginla may prove effective, but the Kings should also be able to count on improved performances from many underachieving veterans. This club has the look of a team that got old in a hurry, and we may see a lot of changes if things unravel and the Kings miss the playoffs.