
The Best Dream and Realistic Option at Every Position on 2017 NHL Trade Market
With less than one week until the NHL's March 1 trade deadline, the masses are getting restless.
Fans have grown accustomed to trades being rare in the salary-cap era, so we spend practically the entire hockey season looking forward to spring's regular-season deadline and the summer week between the draft and the beginning of free agency—the two times of year when all the action comes down.
This season, two additional forces are making the trade deadline murkier than ever.
The first is June's expansion draft to stock the Vegas Golden Knights. That has left general managers wondering how the trades they make today will impact their lists of protected and exposed players later this spring.
Secondly, the line between buyers and sellers is not yet clear. Through games complete on February 22, just seven of 30 NHL teams are more than four points away from a possible playoff spot. That leaves a lot of clubs hoping they can still make a push—and only a handful of teams truly committed to dealing their quality assets for packages made up primarily of draft picks and prospects.
With all that in mind, here's a look at players from each position who could be on the move over the next week. The "dream" players are high-end talent, but they may not be available except at a high price. The "realistic" players are more likely to be on the market—and most likely can be acquired at much more reasonable price points.
The countdown is on. Let the trades begin.
Dream Center: Matt Duchene, Colorado Avalanche
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Age: 26
2016-17 Stats: 53 GP, 16-20-36, minus-18
Contract Status: In third year of five-year contract with cap hit of $6 million; does not have no-trade clause
Matt Duchene's a top-tier player who should be available from the Colorado Avalanche for the right price.
He's just 26, but the third-overall draft pick from 2009 already has 548 games of regular-season NHL experience. Now in his eighth pro season, Duchene has played just two NHL playoff games, but his international pedigree is unparalleled.
Duchene didn't get to participate in the World Junior Tournament because he was already in the NHL during his years of eligibility, but he has won gold at every other level, from under-17 and under-18 all the way through two IIHF World Championships, the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi and the 2016 World Cup of Hockey in Toronto.
The 2016-17 season has been a disaster for the Avalanche—they're last in the NHL, a full 14 points behind the 29th-place Arizona Coyotes. It's definitely time for change, but there's a good chance that Colorado general manager Joe Sakic will be patient before he pulls the trigger on any franchise-changing deals.
Mike Johnston of Sportsnet reported that Sakic's price tag for Duchene is "as many as three pieces: a top draft pick, a prospect, and maybe even a top defenceman," according to Sportsnet TV personality Nick Kypreos. That's a big ask from a playoff contender—teams that are going to think long and hard about cutting ties with promising young blueliners.
"This could benefit a team that sees either player as a piece for 2017, as opposed to now," Elliotte Friedman for Sportsnet suggested, speaking about Duchene and his teammate, Gabriel Landeskog. "But it might put off a move until the offseason. There's still time, but some GMs are wary you're plugging one leak while opening another."
Unless a team like Anaheim, which has the assets, steps up to the plate, Sakic has nothing to gain by rushing to make a deal at the trade deadline. He'll almost certainly collect a better return if he waits until summer to deal Duchene, whose market value will still be strong.
Realistic Center: Martin Hanzal, Arizona Coyotes
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Age: 30
2016-17 Stats: 49 GP, 15-9-24, minus-15
Contract Status: In final year of five-year contract with cap hit of $3.1 million; modified no-trade clause requires player to list seven teams where he would agree to be traded
Like Matt Duchene, Martin Hanzal was also a first-round draft pick—chosen 17th overall by the then-Phoenix Coyotes back in 2005. Also like Duchene, the towering Czech has played his entire career with one team—but that time may soon be coming to an end.
Though the Coyotes have posted a solid 10-9-2 record so far in the 2017 calendar year, they fell behind early and still sit 15 points out of a Western Conference wild-card spot—an insurmountable deficit.
With an eye toward the future, general manager John Chayka has already traded impending unrestricted free-agent defenseman Michael Stone. It's expected that the team's other UFAs—Hanzal, Radim Vrbata and perhaps even captain Shane Doan—could be next.
According to Sean Leahy at Yahoo Sports, "Chayka said he hasn't made a determination yet on Hanzal," though he also said that "he's looking for both draft picks and young roster players that fit with their lineup in any potential (deadline) trade."
Hanzal's limited no-trade clause does give him some control over a potential trade destination, but he sounds open to a possible move if it's to a team with real Stanley Cup chances.
Per Sarah McLellan of the Arizona Republic, Hanzal said on February 13:
"I like it here. But the bottom line is I don't have a contract for next season, and we're two weeks away from the deadline. So it's going to happen one way or the other. Obviously, I'll be happy with whatever happens because this is hockey and if they move me, I'll probably have a chance to win a Stanley Cup. That's another upside, right? So we'll see.
"
At 6'6" and with a 56.1 percent success rate in the faceoff circle, Hanzal has the size and skills that will be attractive to top teams looking for depth down the middle.
Dream Right Wing: Curtis Lazar, Ottawa Senators
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Age: 22
2016-17 Stats: 32 GP, 0-1-1, minus-9
Contract Status: In final year of entry-level contract with cap hit of $894,167
It may seem strange to refer to a player who has just one point this year as a "dream" trade-deadline acquisition, but at 22 years old, Curtis Lazar has plenty of long-term upside.
The first-round draft pick from 2013 got off to a rough start in 2016-17. After missing training camp due to a bout of mononucleosis, Lazar spent the first five weeks of his season with Binghamton in the AHL. Lazar was recalled by Ottawa in mid-November but missed another three games in December due to a concussion.
While Lazar was out of action, his teammates were adjusting to a new system under first-year coach Guy Boucher—a system that has been successful enough to propel the team to within two points of first place in the Atlantic Division.
Lazar watched six of nine Sens games from the press box as a healthy scratch between January 1 and February 18, which fuelled a meeting between Ottawa general manager Pierre Dorion and Lazar's agent J.P. Barry.
"A lot of my counterparts are easy to deal with, (and) some have been harder," Dorion said, per Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia (h/t the Ottawa Citizen), when asked about the conversations he's had with other general managers about Lazar. "Some try to fleece you and some don't want to offer much.
"Our first choice with Curtis is to keep him with this team, all the work we've done to develop him, and to be part of hopefully a playoff team and hopefully more in the upcoming years."
If a rival GM thought he might be able to swoop in and acquire Lazar at a bargain price this trade deadline, his hopes will almost certainly be dashed.
Realistic Right Wing: Patrick Eaves, Dallas Stars
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Age: 32
2016-17 Stats: 59 GP, 21-16-37, minus-10
Contract Status: One-year contract with cap hit of $1 million
Patrick Eaves was drafted 29th overall in 2003 and scored 20 goals in his rookie season with the Ottawa Senators in 2005-06. He has carved out his NHL career as a bottom-six forward with the Sens, Carolina Hurricanes, Detroit Red Wings, Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars.
This season, at age 32, Eaves has had a breakthrough. He's playing a career-high 16:39 per game and has tallied 10 power-play goals to fuel his best-ever season of 21 goals and counting. Eaves is tied with Tyler Seguin for Dallas' goal-scoring lead—and is on a one-year contract that will make him an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.
With his newfound scoring touch and his gritty versatility, Eaves could be a useful piece of the playoff puzzle for a contending team. His longest playoff run to date came when he reached the Eastern Conference Final with Carolina in 2008-09.
Eaves has previously been part of two deadline deals. He was part of a package that went from the Senators to the Hurricanes in February 2008, then packaged off to Nashville in the deal that brought David Legwand to the Detroit Red Wings in 2014.
Dream Left Wing: Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado Avalanche
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Age: 24
2016-17 Stats: 48 GP, 11-12-23, minus-16
Contract Status: Third year of seven-year contract with cap hit of $5.57 million; modified no-trade clause does not kick in until 2018-19 season
Almost everything that was said about Matt Duchene also applies to his teammate, Gabriel Landeskog. The Colorado Avalanche captain is young, ultra-talented and is currently in the middle of the worst season of his professional career.
After winning the Calder Trophy in his rookie season, Landeskog also suffered through a sophomore slump in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season, managing just nine goals and 17 points in 36 games. He bounced back to hit a career-high 26 goals and 54 points the following season, so there's every reason to assume that, once again, he'll emerge from this career valley.
Like with Duchene, the asking price for Landeskog would be high. Sportsnet suggested that the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs would be among interested teams—and those two Atlantic Division teams will likely be duking it out down to the wire for a playoff spot.
If one of them was able to satisfy Joe Sakic and seal the deal, would Landeskog be the difference-maker who would determine which team makes the playoffs this year and which one spends the summer on the sidelines?
Realistic Left Wing: Mikhail Grigorenko, Colorado Avalanche
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Age: 22
2016-17 Stats: 55 GP, 6-12-18, minus-10
Contract Status: One-year contract with cap hit of $1.3 million; will be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights at the end of the season
Not to make this all about the Avalanche, but they are one of just a few teams that's in a definite selling position with less than a week to go until the trade deadline. And while Joe Sakic might be feeling reluctant to pull the trigger on a deal for Duchene or Landeskog until he gets a king's ransom in return, Mikhail Grigorenko is probably available for a much more reasonable price.
Generally listed as a center, the big Russian has been deployed primarily at left wing with the Avalanche this season. He was one of four pieces that Sakic received in the trade which sent Ryan O'Reilly to the Buffalo Sabres in June of 2015, but the 22-year-old continues to struggle to be an impact player at NHL level.
No word on an asking price, but Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reported "it sounds like the Avalanche would also like to find a new home for Mikhail Grigorenko." It will be a lot easier to convince Sakic to sign off on this trade than it would be on a deal for Duchene or Landeskog.
Dream Defenseman: Kevin Shattenkirk, St. Louis Blues
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Age: 28
2016-17 Stats: 60 GP, 11-31-42, minus-10
Contract Status: Final year of four-year contract with cap hit of $4.25 million; will be unrestricted free agent at the end of the season
Kevin Shattenkirk's name has been at the top of trade rumour lists all season. He's a top-pairing defenseman with excellent power-play production, but the St. Louis Blues are tight to the salary cap and probably won't be able to re-sign him at a rate that would convince him to forego his payday this summer through unrestricted free agency.
The Blues were fully exposed to both sides of the free-agency conundrum last season. Thinking they had a chance to make a serious playoff run, general manager Doug Armstrong elected not to make trade-deadline deals to part ways with impending free agents David Backes or Troy Brouwer.
With Backes and Brouwer leading the way, the Blues did reach the Western Conference Final for the first time in 16 years—a very good run for a team that has never won the Stanley Cup in its franchise history. But come summer, both players were lost for nothing; Backes signed with Boston, while Brouwer inked a deal with the Calgary Flames.
A month ago, when the floundering Blues were sliding out of a playoff spot, a Shattenkirk deal seemed inevitable. St. Louis is now back on track with a 7-3-0 record since new coach Mike Yeo took over behind the bench—good news, but the team can't afford to weaken itself with just a two-point cushion over the Nashville Predators for third place in the Central Division.
"This is not an easy deal for Armstrong because they could trade their best player," an unnamed league executive told Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun. "Decisions like these are a lot more difficult when you're a playoff team."
Garrioch reported that Armstrong is still trying to make a deal—and would even consider a sign-and-trade situation where the team that acquires Shattenkirk would have him under contract well past the end of this season. That's what it would take for another team to come close to the reported asking price—"a high-end prospect, a first-round pick and another piece."
The Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Rangers are two of the teams believed to be interested in Shattenkirk, who will be looking for a salary in the range of $7 million per season on his new contract.
Realistic Defenseman: Ron Hainsey, Carolina Hurricanes
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Age: 35
2016-17 Stats: 56 GP, 4-10-14, minus-16
Contract Status: Final year of three-year contract with cap hit of $2.83 million; will be unrestricted free agent at the end of the season; modified no-trade clause—must submit list of 15 teams where he would agree to be traded
Big-bodied defenseman Ron Hainsey wouldn't fill the same role as a Kevin Shattenkirk, but there's a good chance the impending free agent could be on the move over the next week.
Hainsey has had an effective four-year run in Carolina with the Hurricanes, where he was first brought in as an unrestricted free agent by general manager Jim Rutherford—now the man who makes the deals for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
The Stanley Cup champions have developed a big hole in their blue line over the last week. Justin Schultz suffered a concussion on February 17, while Olli Maatta was knocked out of action with a hand injury during that same game. Additionally, Trevor Daley left Pittsburgh's game against Carolina on February 21 with a lower-body injury.
According to Jonathan Bombulie of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Maatta's timeline is four-to-six weeks, Schultz is day-to-day and Daley is still being evaluated. Taken together, the three injuries should spur Rutherford to acquire some defensive insurance at the deadline.
One more fun fact—though he's one of the NHL's greybeards at age 35, Hainsey has never appeared in an NHL playoff game. It's safe to say he'd include the Stanley Cup champions on any trade list he's asked to submit.
Dream Goaltender: Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning
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Age: 30
2016-17 Stats: 32 GP, 16-12-3, 2.55 goals-against average, .911 save percentage, 1 shutout
Contract Status: Final year of two-year contract with cap hit of $5.95 million; will be unrestricted free agent at the end of the season; no-movement clause
I can think of a few teams that could use a two-time Vezina Trophy finalist with 36 games of playoff experience over the past two seasons, including a trip to the Stanley Cup Final.
All season, it has seemed inevitable that the Tampa Bay Lightning will trade Ben Bishop—they're a cap-strapped team that can't afford to re-sign the soon-to-be unrestricted free agent, and they have 22-year-old Andrei Vasilevskiy waiting to take over as the future No. 1.
But Tampa Bay's not in last place in the Eastern Conference anymore. In fact, the team's fortunes started to turn around when Big Ben returned from injury in mid-January. Since then, the Lightning are 8-5-4—and Bishop has gone 7-2-1 in the 10 games he has played through that stretch. Thanks to his strong play, the Lightning are now just four points out of a wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.
If general manager Steve Yzerman trades Bishop before the March 1 deadline, he's essentially pulling the pin on his team's bumpy season—just when its fortunes are starting to improve, and when Bishop has been an important part of the turnaround.
Another thing—Bishop also has a full no-movement clause, so he'd have to sign off on any trade that's presented to him.
Unless a rival GM steps up with an offer too good to refuse, Yzerman could end up standing pat at the deadline, leaving teams in need searching elsewhere for help in goal.
Realistic Goaltender: Jaroslav Halak, New York Islanders
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Age: 31
2016-17 Stats (NHL): 21 GP, 6-8-5, 3.23 goals-against average, .904 save percentage, 1 shutout
2016-17 Stats (AHL): 16 GP, 13-1-2, 1.96 goals-against average, .931 save percentage, 2 shutouts
Contract Status: Third year of four-year contract with cap hit of $4.5 million
With a $4.5 million cap hit on a contract that extends for one more season, Jaroslav Halak would have been an expensive acquisition for an NHL team when he was placed on waivers by New York Islanders general manager Garth Snow on December 30.
Halak's demotion came while the Islanders were reeling, less than three weeks before head coach Jack Capuano was shown the door. His attempt to use a three-goalie system had driven his team straight into the basement of the Eastern Conference.
To Halak's credit, he has taken his circumstances in stride. He's still earning his NHL salary, which probably helps, but has been a wall for the AHL Bridgeport Sound Tigers—putting up great personal numbers and backstopping his team to wins.
Just last September, Halak was one of the darlings of the hockey world. His extraordinary play helped the underdog Team Europe reach the final of the World Cup of Hockey. Though he has never had much playoff success, he could bring some veteran experience to a team that's looking for help in net.
Halak's price tag likely wouldn't be too high. The Islanders might even agree to pick up part of his remaining salary in order to get him off their books.
All stats courtesy of NHL.com, current through games completed Wednesday, February 22. Contract and salary information courtesy of CapFriendly.
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