ESPN's NFL draft expert Todd McShay released his second mock draft Wednesday. Below, we'll take a look at his first-round projections and break down some of the interesting developments embedded within his picks.
|Todd McShay Mock Draft 2.0|
|1||Cleveland Browns||Myles Garrett, OLB/DE, Texas A&M|
|2||San Francisco 49ers||Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson|
|3||Chicago Bears||Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama|
|4||Jacksonville Jaguars||Jamal Adams, S, LSU|
|5||Tennessee Titans||Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan|
|6||New York Jets||Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State|
|7||Los Angeles Chargers||Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State|
|8||Carolina Panthers||Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU|
|9||Cincinnati Bengals||Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford|
|10||Buffalo Bills||Mike Williams, WR, Clemson|
|11||New Orleans Saints||Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan|
|12||Cleveland Browns (from Eagles)||Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina|
|13||Arizona Cardinals||Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama|
|14||Philadelphia Eagles (from Vikings)||Teez Tabor, CB, Florida|
|15||Indianapolis Colts||Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State|
|16||Baltimore Ravens||Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State|
|17||Washington||Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan|
|18||Tennessee Titans||Sidney Jones, CB, Washington|
|19||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama|
|20||Denver Broncos||Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin|
|21||Detroit Lions||Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee|
|22||Miami Dolphins||David Njoku, TE, Miami (Fla.)|
|23||New York Giants||Takkarist McKinley, DE/OLB, UCLA|
|24||Oakland Raiders||Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida|
|25||Houston Texans||Garett Bolles, OT, Utah|
|26||Seattle Seahawks||Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama|
|27||Kansas City Chiefs||Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU|
|28||Dallas Cowboys||Tim Williams, OLB, Alabama|
|29||Green Bay Packers||Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee|
|30||Pittsburgh Steelers||Charles Harris, OLB, Missouri|
|31||Atlanta Falcons||Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida|
|32||New England Patriots||Haason Reddick, LB, Temple|
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In his initial mock draft, McShay didn't have a single quarterback selected until No. 30. In his second edition, both Deshaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky were off the board 12 picks in, with Watson shooting all the way up to No. 2.
(McShay hasn't had DeShone Kizer going in the first round in either mock draft.)
This year's quarterback class has folks a bit befuddled. In a vacuum, it's arguable that none of the top options at the position would be top-15 picks. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller, for example, listed Trubisky as his No. 16 player, Kizer at No. 17 and Watson at No. 22 on his latest big board.
But the NFL isn't a vacuum, and teams have a long history of making a mess by drafting quarterbacks too soon. Which isn't necessarily what the San Francisco 49ers would be doing if they selected Watson, but it would be a need pick over a value pick.
Even McShay acknowledged he didn't have Watson graded out anywhere near the No. 2 pick:
We don't have a first-round grade on Watson because of his inconsistent accuracy and decision-making (30 INT the past two seasons). But his outstanding leadership skills and intangibles will help him during pre-draft meetings with teams, and he does have intriguing physical tools, including a good arm and athleticism. Kyle Shanahan's offense would be a good fit for Watson—or UNC's Mitch Trubisky, who I thought about putting here. Shanahan has had success with mobile QBs in the past.
If the Niners love Watson, think he's a great fit and have him graded highly, selecting him at No. 2 won't be a reach. They desperately need a franchise quarterback. Ditto for the Cleveland Browns at No. 12, where Trubisky would be a strong selection.
If the Browns pass on Myles Garrett at No. 1, however, it will be hard to justify passing on the top talent in the draft. But McShay doesn't see that happening.
Corey Davis Jumps Mike Williams
In his first mock draft, McShay had Mike Williams as the first receiver off the board at No. 10. In this edition, however, Corey Davis rocketed up the board to No. 5, where the Tennessee Titans—desperate for help at the position—nab him.
Here's McShay's justification for that pick:
Talking to teams at the Senior Bowl, there's a lot of buzz about Davis. He has good size (6'2", 205), elite production and is a smooth route-runner. Davis won't run the 40 at the combine because of an ankle injury, but if he's in the 4.4s at his pro day as expected, he could be a surprise top-10 pick. Marcus Mariota needs more weapons on the perimeter.
Davis and Williams likely aren't far apart as prospects, though each offers a slightly different style of play. Davis is more explosive after the catch. Williams has better ball skills and projects to be more of a possession receiver than Davis at the next level.
Both come with high upside. It won't be surprising if either player is taken off the board in the first five picks.
No Offensive Lineman Selected Until No. 20
McShay summed up this storyline rather succinctly while mocking Ryan Ramczyk to the Denver Broncos at No. 20.
"The first offensive lineman comes off the board at No. 20, which would be the lowest ever since the 1970 merger," he wrote. "This is a weak O-line class."
There you have it, folks.
While Miller lists Ramczyk as his No. 14 prospect, his next offensive lineman (Cam Robinson) is all the way down at No. 32. In all, Miller has just four offensive linemen in his top 50 prospects.
So yes, McShay has three offensive linemen in his first-round mock. But like many others, he doesn't think this will be a great draft for teams that need to bolster the offensive line.
No Christian McCaffrey in First Round
In his first mock, McShay had Christian McCaffrey as the No. 32 pick. In mock No. 2, the talented running back fell out of the first round entirely.
Running backs have been devalued as first-round quantities in years past, though with players like Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook available, it's hard to imagine that being the case this year. But McCaffrey's unique skill set—he's equally as dangerous as a pass-catcher as he is a runner—makes him an intriguing option in this draft.
In his first mock, McShay said of McCaffrey, "He has a rare combination of vision, lateral agility and acceleration, which shows up in the return game too." It wouldn't be surprising if a team agreed and took McCaffrey in the first round.
In this mock, however, McShay envisions him sliding into Round 2.