NFL Free Agency 2017: Buyer Beware Guide from NFL1000

At the beginning of every league year, NFL teams throw hundreds of millions of dollars at free agents, hoping that it'll all work out. And for every Reggie White, Charles Woodson, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner and Deion Sanders (in Dallas), players who added untold performance value to their respective franchises, there's a Scott Mitchell, Albert Haynesworth, David Boston, Larry Brown and Deion Sanders (in Washington, D.C.) to provide a cautionary tale.

Why do teams strike out at the bargaining table when they should ostensibly know better? Several reasons. Personnel executives will gamble too much on a small sample size (Mitchell), ignore personality quirks (Hayneswsorth, Boston), value a Super Bowl MVP award too highly (Brown) or simply fail to understand that a player doesn't fit their system (most failures).

There will be the usual number of free agents at the start of the 2017 league year, from big-ticket guys to under-the-radar bargains. Here are some prominent (and talented) names that should have NFL teams thinking twice. None of these players are obvious busts; they could all contribute under the right circumstances. But with that in mind, teams must be careful and know they have those circumstances on lockdown.

*All advanced statistics provided by Pro Football Focus

Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington Redskins

Rob Carr/Getty Images

At the Pro Bowl, Cousins said he'd be more than happy to play under the franchise tag for the Washington Redskins for the second straight season. Of course, when the second-year franchise tag for quarterbacks amounts to $23.94 million guaranteed, that's an easy assessment to make.

Signing Cousins to a contract worth over $20 million per year for multiple years would be a more complicated concept. The Redskins have been on the fence about Cousins' long-term potential, and though he's been statistically impressive over the last couple of seasons, there's reason for concern.

In 2016, Cousins completed 67 percent of his passes for 4,917 yards and 25 touchdowns with 12 interceptions, ranking third in Football Outsiders' season-cumulative defense-adjusted yards above replacement metric and fifth in the per-play metric.

These numbers say he's worth top-level quarterback money. And if Washington were to decide to let him walk, he'd most certainly be the most popular player on the free-agent market. Quarterbacks who put up stats like these don't tend to last too long.

When you look underneath the stats, however, it's just as easy to argue against the idea that Cousins is worthy of top-level money for the position or placement as the face of a franchise for half a decade.

He's become a better deep passer over time, but he's also helped by his targets and the offensive game-planning put forth by head coach Jay Gruden and former offensive coordinator Sean McVay, who's now the head coach of the Los Angeles Rams.

But when you watch Cousins' tape, you often see a player who is still uncomfortable under pressure and whose mechanics revert to those from earlier years at times. The question for the Redskins, or any other team interested in procuring Cousins' services over the long term, is whether he can transcend those issues.

Grading Scale

• Acc: Accuracy (Graded out of 25)
• Arm: Arm Strength (Graded out of 25)
• Press: Pressure/Run Threat (Graded out of 20) (Pressure weighted at 15, run threat at 5)
• Dec: Decision-Making (Graded out of 20)
• Pos: Positional Value (Graded out of 10)
• Ovr: Top Possible Score of 100

Kirk Cousins NFL1000 Scores

QB Rank	Acc	Arm	Press	Dec	Pos	Ovr
26/38	15.1	17.9	11.7	11.6	10	66.3

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Adam Bettcher/Getty Images

The Minnesota Vikings selected Cordarrelle Patterson in the first round of the 2013 draft and never figured out how to use him. To be fair, it didn't help that Patterson wasn't the most route-aware player in the NFL (a problem he seems to have to this day), but the schism between Patterson and former offensive coordinator Norv Turner was especially disconcerting.

Turner effectively boxed Patterson out of the offense, and though Patterson saw more snaps and targets after Turner resigned in early November, he has never been the kind of receiver who can take over a game, despite his physical talent.

What he has become is a dynamite return man—he's had a return longer than 100 yards in three of his four seasons—and a rusher who's averaged 10.7 yards per attempt on 31 carries. So at this point in his career,  Patterson is an athlete who is also a football player.

Such players are potentially dangerous weapons in any offense. There are undoubtedly other NFL teams that believe Patterson would succeed in their offenses with just a few tweaks, and though that may be true, whatever team gets him will have to accept his status as a raw receiver.

Given the success of Ty Montgomery in Green Bay, Patterson has taken to marketing himself as a hybrid running back, but one wonders how much success he'd have if he was featured as a running back and the element of surprise was no longer a factor. Patterson could break out in another offense, or he could be a proverbial jack-of-all-trades and master of none. That scenario would be a problem for any team paying him considerable money.

Grading Scale

• Route: Route Running (Graded out of 25)
• Hands: Hands (Graded out of 25)
• YAC: Yards After Catch (Graded out of 20)
• Blk: Blocking (Graded out of 20)
• Pos: Positional Value (Graded out of 10)
• Ovr: Highest Possible Score of 100

Cordarrelle Patterson NFL1000 Scores

WR Rank	Route	Hands	YAC	Blk	Pos	Ovr
79/155	15.4	15.6	13.4	11.0	9	64.4

Kenny Britt, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Sean Gardner/Getty Images

Kenny Britt reached 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career in 2016, which was doubly impressive: He was inactive for the final regular-season game, and anyone who gets that many receiving yards in the Rams offense should receive some sort of award.

In mid-January, Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports reported Los Angeles may look to move on from Britt and cornerback Trumaine Johnson—which seems appropriate for a dysfunctional franchise, as Britt and Johnson are two of the team's best players.

If new head coach Sean McVay doesn't counteract that alleged edict, Britt would be a good fit in an offense that has few discernible weapons. But what would he command on the open market? Off-field incidents that may have gone unnoticed by former head coach Jeff Fisher (which is historically part of Fisher's modus operandi) might be more of an issue under new management, though Britt has stayed out of trouble recently.

On the field, Britt is a decent deep receiver with a middling drop rate who was the only above-average target available to rookie quarterback Jared Goff—though it must be said that at times, Goff made life harder for all his receivers.

Britt would be a good complementary receiver in an offense with multiple pass-catchers who can perform varied duties, but any team looking to present him with No. 1 receiver money because he looked pretty good in the NFL's worst offense might be disappointed.

Grading Scale

• Route: Route Running (Graded out of 25)
• Hands: Hands (Graded out of 25)
• YAC: Yards After Catch (Graded out of 20)
• Blk: Blocking (Graded out of 20)
• Pos: Positional Value (Graded out of 10)
• Ovr: Highest Possible Score of 100

Kenny Britt NFL1000 Scores

WR Rank	Route	Hands	YAC	Blk	Pos	Ovr
40/155	17.3	17.1	13.2	11.3	9	67.9

Jared Cook, TE, Green Bay Packers

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Going from the worst passing offense in the NFL to one of the best is sure to increase your opportunities, and that's what happened to Jared Cook—who, when healthy, became a big part of the Packers offense after three years in pass-catching purgatory with the Rams.

Including the playoffs, Cook notched 48 catches on 81 targets for 606 yards and three touchdowns despite missing six games with an ankle injury, and Green Bay seems interested in re-signing him. Given the team's hole at tight end over the last few seasons, it would certainly make sense.

What would happen if Cook hit the open market? He was unusually productive in that Rams offense from 2013 through 2015, with 142 catches for 1,786 yards and eight touchdowns, and anyone who was able to tread water in St. Louis can use that to his advantage.

There are issues that showed up in Green Bay, however. Cook had 10 drops on 69 targets for the Rams in 2015, and while you could argue he was wrestling with uncatchable passes, he had the same bugaboo when Aaron Rodgers was throwing him the ball—five drops on 81 targets in 2016.

If the Packers or another team can get him for a relatively cheap deal, Cook would be a decent bargain, especially in an expansive offense. He has limitations but is a decent deep threat and blocker.

Grading Scale

• Route: Route Running (Graded out of 20)
• Hands: Hands (Graded out of 25)
• YAC: Yards After Catch (Graded out of 20)
• Blk: Blocking (Graded out of 25)
• Pos: Positional Value (Graded out of 10)
• Ovr: Highest Possible Score of 100

Jared Cook NFL1000 Scores

TE Rank	Route	Hands	YAC	Blk	Pos	Ovr
20/96	13.8	15.9	13.3	17.0	6	66.0

Matt Kalil, LT, Minnesota Vikings

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Though he had a stellar rookie season in 2012, it's not hyperbole to say Matt Kalil has become, through injury and iffy mechanics, one of the least effective pass-blocking tackles in the NFL. He missed all but two games in 2016 with a torn labrum in his hip, and though he played just 121 snaps, he allowed a sack, three hits and five hurries. His six-sack season of 2015 was an improvement over the disaster that was 2014, when he allowed 12 sacks, seven hits and 36 hurries.

It's an oddity, because Kalil wasn't a spread-offense hothouse flower who immediately turned to dust in the NFL—he was a standout tackle at USC, and when I evaluated his college tape, I saw a player with rare athleticism and agility who sometimes failed to be physical enough for the job.

That's the mystery when you watch Kalil five years into his professional career. He lunges when he should stay put and face up against a defender, he loses containment when he tries to hit the second level, and more often than not, he looks completely out of place.

Perhaps another team can turn him around with the right kind of fundamentals, but it will have to be blind to his past hype and make a team-friendly deal to protect themselves if he doesn't turn it around. Maybe Kalil can become a serviceable tackle down the road, but he's very much a project at this point.

Note: Kalil does not have an NFL1000 score because he played only two games in 2016.

Jabaal Sheard, DE, New England Patriots

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Jabaal Sheard signed a two-year deal with the New England Patriots before the 2015 season. Transferring from the Cleveland Browns' hybrid 3-4 defense to New England's 4-3 unit proved the right move—especially early on, when he had eight sacks, 51 quarterback hurries and 35 stops in his first season under Bill Belichick as a more traditional 4-3 front end.

Sheard is at his best when he can both beat tackles off the edge with his speed and use his strength and leverage to kick inside against the run. Sheard also learned to drop into coverage, making him a versatile threat at his position.

But Sheard's excellence was not quite as evident in 2016, and the mystery behind his benching for the Patriots' Week 11 win over the San Francisco 49ers remains. Scott Zolak of CSNNE.com (via NESN's Zack Cox) reported Sheard may have freelanced the week before against the Seattle Seahawks (something Belichick does not appreciate), and it took a while for Sheard to work his way back.

To his credit, Sheard has been highly effective through the end of the season and into the postseason, but teams will certainly want to know why and how he got in Belichick's doghouse.

Grading Scale

• Rush: Pass Rush (Graded out of 25)
• Run: Run Defense (Graded out of 25)
• Snap: Snap Explosion (Graded out of 20)
• Tkl: Tackling (Graded out of 20)
• Pos: Positional Value (Graded out of 10)
• Ovr: Highest Possible Score of 100

Jabaal Sheard NFL1000 Scores

DE Rank	Rush	Run	Snap	Tkl	Pos	Ovr
27/68	18.0	14.1	13.3	13.1	8	66.5

Lawrence Timmons, ILB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Selected in the first round of the 2007 draft, Lawrence Timmons has been a mainstay in the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since it was one of the two or three best in the NFL. That's not the case anymore for multiple reasons—Pittsburgh is more in the middle of the pack these days, and Timmons' performance has suffered in new schemes put forth by the Steelers' coaching staff.

Timmons is at his best when he's allowed to deal with slot receivers and tight ends in short to intermediate coverage, where he can use his athleticism to avoid overstriding in deeper coverage against quicker players. But in recent years, Pittsburgh has asked Timmons to cover more receivers downfield in basic and easily discernible zone defenses, and he's struggled in that area. This seems a situation in which the coaches are more to blame than the player—when a staff puts a player in positions where he's clearly not comfortable, that's where the blame should go.

This season, both Timmons and Ryan Shazier were vulnerable in pass coverage, and at this point in his career, Shazier is more athletic than Timmons. The veteran would be best served in a system that plays to his less rangy, more aggressive attributes. Put him in middle-distance coverage and let him blitz. Timmons may have been more scheme-transcendent earlier in his career, but at age 30, he'll need to be reined in.

Grading Scale

• Pass: Pass Defense (Graded out of 25)
• Run: Run Defense (Graded out of 35)
• Rush: Pass Rush (Graded out of 15)
• Tkl: Tackling (Graded out of 15)
• Pos: Positional Value (Graded out of 10)
• Ovr: Highest Possible Score of 100

Lawrence Timmons NFL1000 Scores

ILB Rank	Pass	Run	Rush	Tkl	Pos	Ovr
29/65	16.6	26.6	9.6	10.9	9	72.7

Logan Ryan, CB, New England Patriots

Elsa/Getty Images

Logan Ryan started his career as a backup outside cornerback and impressive slot defender after the Patriots took him in the third round of the 2013 draft. In 2014, he allowed 14 catches on 26 targets for 161 yards and no touchdowns with one interception and an opponent's quarterback rating of 56.7 as a slot defender. He allowed four touchdowns in the slot in 2015, and he's allowed three more touchdowns there in 2016.

Ryan is best deployed as an outside cornerback against second and third receivers, and as long as that's how he's compensated in a new deal, the team retaining his services will be in good shape. For teams looking for a guy who can kick inside to the slot consistently (as many squads ask of their star cornerbacks these days), however, it will be important to discern why Ryan's slot performance has regressed over the last two seasons.

Grading Scale

• Cvg: Coverage (Graded out of 30)
• React: Reaction/Recovery (Graded out of 30)
• Slot: Slot (Graded out of 20)
• Tkl: Tackling (Graded out of 10)
• Pos: Positional Value (Graded out of 10)
• Ovr: Highest Possible Score of 100

Logan Ryan NFL1000 Scores

CB Rank	Cvg	React	Slot	Tkl	Pos	Ovr
43/133	17.5	17.5	15.3	5.6	9	64.9

 

*All advanced statistics provided by Pro Football Focus