Can Philippe Coutinho's New Liverpool Deal Keep Him out of Barcelona's Reach?

The in-vogue-again George Orwell once remarked that "sometimes the first duty of intelligent men is the restatement of the obvious." Rather than declaring ourselves as one of the aforementioned, perhaps we can simply take it as advice or an instruction. And so, here we start with the obvious. 

The dotted line only just signed and accompanied by the now-obligatory photograph, pen and all, Liverpool's smiling star dispensed with the words to soothe fretting minds: "When you extend your contract, you extend it because you want to stay here for the future. I signed not only for two-and-a-half more years, but I signed for a long time to stay here and I am so happy."

You've probably worked out by now that gushing snippet wasn't from Philippe Coutinho. It was, of course, from Luis Suarez when penning a new contract at Anfield in December 2013, six months before his departure to Barcelona.

As any footballer is entitled to, Suarez evidently held a different definition of "a long time" to you and me. 

For those connected to Liverpool, recalling the end of Suarez's time on Merseyside might bring about the sort of convulsions and shrieking nightmares experienced by Tom Hardy's character in Taboo, but it is relevant here even if Reds might adopt the position of Clara Barton: "I defy the tyranny of precedent."

Wednesday's announcement from the club's official website that Coutinho has struck a new "long-term" deal at Liverpool amid reported interest from a certain Catalan outfit will have meant different things to different people. Optimists in the north-west of England will have seen it as reinforcement in the idea of Liverpool's progress, while the more gloomy among us will have felt it was like being handed a shovel in a dark cemetery. 

Like Suarez before him, Coutinho posed for the shot that counts, beaming that million-dollar smile of his. The Brazilian has been rewarded with new pay packet—£150,000 per week, per BBC Sport; as much as £200,000 per week, according to David Maddock of the Mirror—for his brilliant adaption to England's top division even if he's clearly avoided its tea.    

"I am very happy to sign a new contract here," he told Liverpool's official website. "It is a club that I am very grateful to and this shows my happiness here. I will work much harder to repay the belief shown in me."

The customary post-announcement interview contained all the bits you expect. Still, though Coutinho can be excused given that English isn't his first language, more than a few Reds will have winced a little when he said, "I signed this new contract to stay here for a few more years." What's his definition of "a few?"

Even if the cynics will see the latest development as evidence of history repeating itself, there is an important difference between Coutinho's deal and that of Suarez. The Uruguayan's contract contained a buyout clause and was about protecting the club financially from what they knew was an inevitable sale; the Brazilian's has no such thing, per Maddock. 

In a transfer market that has long lost touch with real life, what that means is Liverpool are in a far stronger position with Coutinho than they were with Suarez. There's no set figure at which they're powerless to stop him leaving. 

Earlier this month, a study from the CIES Football Observatory—which uses a statistical model that includes "multiple variables on player performance (minutes, goals, etc.) and characteristics (age, contract, etc.), as well as data on employer clubs and potential recruiting ones" to determine a player's value in the market—valued the Brazilian at €55 million (£46.7 million). A new contract will only send that figure north. 

Now back from injury, Coutinho could continue to drive that figure up if he recaptures his form from earlier in the season. As Liverpool made a charge to the top of the Premier League table, the club's No. 10 became a very Jurgen Klopp-type of monster, operating alongside Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane in a devastating front three.

The charm of Coutinho is how he's able to blend that tenacious work rate with Brazilian artistry. Watching him cut in from the left, head up and feet dancing, is one of the Premier League's finest sights. Surely no one else is so skilled at sucking in a defender, drawing them close enough for physical contact but forever escaping at the last possible second. 

Five goals and five assists in the opening 11 rounds of the season was the return of the division's dominant creator. A stunning free-kick against Arsenal on the opening day set the tone, an example of power that defies his size. 

"If I could shoot like he could shoot then I would try it all the time," Klopp told James Pearce of the Liverpool Echo. "I'd get up in the morning and just shoot the f--king ball around in the garden or something."

Such qualities get noticed, however, and Liverpool fans will be wary of the routine. You know the type of thing—current Barcelona star says he'd love to play with the man in question; a Barcelona legend endorses the move; the player himself talks up Barcelona. We've been here before. 

"To play with Coutinho is always a joy," Neymar said in November, per Sport. "We've been team-mates for years and each day I think that we were made to play with each other."

Soon enough, Xavi was at it too, telling Thomas Unsworth of Goal: "There are not many players that can improve Barcelona, but if you are asking me if he is one of them, on this form, I think he is. Technically he is very good. He would suit Barcelona's philosophy well."

Then came Coutinho's bit. "My top three players in the world are the MSN trio," he told FourFourTwo. "Obviously there are others, at Real Madrid too, like Cristiano Ronaldo. But those three complete each other."

Liverpool have done their bit for now, but they'll acutely understand the attraction. Give a South American the option of the Mersey or the Mediterranean and chances are they'll be gone before you finish the sentence. 

Rather than being about intentions expressed to the club's official media—what else can he say?—this then is more about whether Barcelona have the resources to get him. 

The Catalans searched long and hard for the coveted "fourth attacker" last summer. Paco Alcacer was brought in from Valencia as supposedly it, but he has one goal to his name almost six months on. Andre Gomes and Denis Suarez were also bought to bolster the advanced midfield positions but haven't hit the levels expected despite promising flashes. Coutinho would be an upgrade on them all. 

To move for the Brazilian, at least one of those names would have to be sold to generate funds, but even then it would be challenging for Barcelona. 

With Lionel Messi and Andres Iniesta still to renew, the club is already running close to La Liga's 70 per cent limit when it comes to player wages as a proportion of turnover.

"Barcelona has to analyse this situation with a cold head and common sense," chief executive Oscar Grau said earlier this month when discussing a new contract for Messi, per Reuters (h/t the Guardian). "Barca can't exceed 70 per cent of its budget on wages, and therefore we have to make the numbers add up."

Beyond wages, the club also has a €600 million redevelopment of the Camp Nou looming. It's generally not considered good practice to opt for the rib eye when running it fine at the end of the month, and swallowing another £150,000 per week on top of a massive transfer fee might be just that. 

For Liverpool, it all means that this isn't quite "Suarez: The Sequel." The Reds' position is stronger this time, but they'll know the allure hasn't changed.