The Superteam That Wasn't: Arizona Inching Closer to What Could Have Been

TUCSON, Arizona — It took about 45 seconds for Allonzo Trier to take his first shot after making his 2016-17 home debut at McKale Center on Jan. 26, a three-pointer that barely touched the rim as it went through. That basket led to a standing ovation from the 14,000-plus fans, the second in less than a minute, the other coming after the sophomore guard was introduced as a sub off the bench.

Among those standing up to cheer was Ray Smith, a redshirt freshman forward who was expected to play a huge role for the Wildcats this season before suffering a third major knee injury in the preseason. And also likely applauding, albeit from halfway across the world, was Terrance Ferguson, a shooting guard who had signed with Arizona but ended up passing up college for a pro contract in Australia.

Fifth-ranked Arizona is 20-2 overall and 9-0 in the Pac-12, alone in first place ahead of this weekend's huge showdown at No. 13 Oregon. It has won 14 in a row, the third-longest streak in the nation, and Trier's return from a 19-game suspension for failing a drug test has the Wildcats looking like a strong contender to make the Final Four for the first time since 2001.

As good as they've looked this season—and regardless of how much better they've become with Trier's return—it's hard not to wonder how strong Arizona could have been had coach Sean Miller been able to use every club he was supposed to have in his golf bag.

In a season where so-called superteams like Duke and Kentucky garnered a boatload of hype because of their overabundance of talent (yet in January alone they've combined to lose five times), Arizona moved along with little fanfare until Trier returned a little more than a week ago. Without him, the Wildcats went 17-2 with single-digit neutral-court losses to Butler and top-ranked Gonzaga, dipping down to just seven available scholarship players at one point.

The team Arizona has put on the court for most of this season is far from what it was supposed to be able to sport. Its five-man recruiting class rivaled Duke and Kentucky's with the addition of Ferguson as well as 5-star guard Rawle Alkins and 4-star guard Kobi Simmons, both of whom Scout ranked among the top 10 players of their class at their positions. There was also 5-star 7'0" Finnish forward Lauri Markkanen, who averaged nearly 25 points per game for his country at the FIBA U20 European Championship during the summer.

But not long after Markkanen went for 33 points against Spain, the Wildcats were dealt the first in a series of roster-thinning blows. Ferguson, less than three months after pledging to come to Tucson, instead announced he was heading Down Under (via The Players' Tribune):

"You probably know that that wasn’t the original plan. This fall, I was supposed to be playing for the University of Arizona. But when life gives you an opportunity like this, you can’t pass it up!"

It was the first in a series of events that thinned-out Arizona's wealth of talent that risked turning a promising season into a major disappointment.

The Wildcats also lost two players to season-ending knee injuries during the preseason.

Smith, a 6'8" forward who was the No. 16 player in the 2015 recruiting class and who had already missed 2015-16 (as well as his senior year of high school) because of similar ailments, retired from basketball after his third ACL tear in 27 months. 

And then there was the Trier saga, which began in mid-October when the Wildcats' top returning scorer was abruptly pulled from appearing at Pac-12 media day in San Francisco and ended with his return less than two weeks ago, with nary a mention of him from the school or team in between.

How quiet was Arizona on the subject? The majority of Miller's press conferences between late October and mid-January began with school spokesman Matt Ensor making a blanket statement that no one would be commenting on Trier's status.

Trier's absence—and the lack of an explanation for it, let alone an idea of when or if it would end—began to take on a life of its own. From media day on, there was a near-daily "Trier Watch" to see if he was going to play. Interpretations and speculations were made based on his involvement in pregame shootarounds, his choice of warm-up clothing and even the type of shoes he wore. Someone even created a Twitter account dedicated to the sweat pants Trier regularly wore on game days.

As a result, Arizona began the regular season with eight scholarship players (and briefly dipped to seven when junior Parker Jackson-Cartwright missed time with a high ankle sprain) when it entered the summer thinking it would have at least that many key contributors.

Trier certainly would have retained his starting position from his freshman year when he averaged 14.8 points per game, while Ferguson and Smith were strong candidates to start. Ferguson, who hit a record seven three-pointers at the Nike Hoop Summit in April, was expected to give the Wildcats a much-needed perimeter sharpshooter, while Smith had been tabbed as the wing defender they sorely missed a season ago. Markkanen would have been the starting center and either Cartwright or senior Kadeem Allen would have filled out the other guard spot.

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But it wasn't just the starting five that would have made Arizona such a formidable force at full strength, so would its ability to mix and match for different scenarios. Markkanen's amazing versatility—he leads in scoring (16.8), rebounding (7.6) and three-pointers (54)—is best used by having him able to work from the outside in, and with Smith able to play the 4 and 7'0" junior Dusan Ristic a more traditional back-to-the-basket 5, the Wildcats would have been one of the longest teams in the country.

Miller could have also gone small with any of those bigs being the sole frontcourt guy, while a quartet of guards with varying skill sets would have forced opponents to either match their size or risk being too slow to keep up.

UCLA occasionally goes to a four-guard lineup of Bryce Alford, Lonzo Ball, Isaac Hamilton and Aaron Holiday, referred to as "Guards Against Humanity," that few teams have been able to deal with, but the Wildcats could have countered with its own cadre of ball-handlers. Arizona's Alkins, Allen, Ferguson and Trier could have been a four-guard lineup.

That's the theory, at least. Sometimes there can be problems with having too much talent available, as Arizona saw the previous two seasons when better depth caused players to transfer from the program. Freshman forward Craig Victor left midway through 2014-15, while freshman guard Justin Simon departed after the 2015-16 campaign ended.

With everyone available, a scenario exists where Alkins or Simmons, who each average about 30 minutes per game, would have played less and might not be as far along in their development. The same goes for Allen, who has morphed into a lockdown defender, who on Sunday helped hold potential No. 1 NBA draft pick Markelle Fultz of Washington to 8-of-23 shooting.

Smith's presence could have also affected how Arizona used its big men, potentially scrapping the twin-tower lineup of Markkanen and Ristic that's been so effective. Ristic's breakout season in which he scored 16 or more in the first five Pac-12 games may have never happened.

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But that's also assuming Miller wouldn't have been able to work the magic that saw him get Arizona to three Elite Eights since 2011. For much of this season, he's had to represent a flush when he's really held two pair. Who's to say he couldn't feign weakness when having a much better hand? Regarded by many as the best coach in the country not to have made a Final Four, Miller could have had his best shot yet with this team.

And he still does. Since returning on Jan. 21 (with 12 points, seven rebounds and four assists off the bench in a 96-85 win at then-No. 3 UCLA), Trier is averaging 13.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists since his return, shooting 43.3 percent overall and 28.6 percent from three-point range. There's still rust to be shaken off, but it's clear how much better he makes the Wildcats, and it's a big reason they went from being listed as a 33-1 shot to win the NCAA title to 12-1, per OddsShark.

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"The transition that guys made to have to take on bigger roles and be ready was great," Trier said, adding that Miller "really solidified himself as the Coach of the Year."

Had Trier been there the whole time, the odds might have been even better right now, and if Ferguson had decided to stay on this side of the planet and Smith had landed normally on that layup, it might be Arizona sitting at No. 1 with a perfect record instead of Gonzaga.

Duke and Kentucky have similar "what if" scenarios, the former's related to if all of its heralded freshmen had been at full strength from the outset, while the latter is once again dealing with overinflated expectations that come with thinking an all-star team of prep phenoms can play together as one. But as they begin to slide and questions revolve around whether either can turn it around, Arizona is moving in the opposite direction and doing its best not to look back.

"It's almost like we have a new life," Miller said. "We have to [use] that to our advantage."

All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.