2017 NFL Mock Draft: Latest Prospect Predictions Before AFC, NFC Championships

We've reached peak mock draft saturation, when fans of eliminated teams still want their football fix and want to look forward to what may be next. And what is next, outside of free agency, is the NFL draft.

So, please, satiate your hunger for another NFL mock draft with the one below.

And while you're here to see whether you agree with Timothy Rapp, fine upstanding civilian, or disagree with Timothy Rapp, raging idiot who clearly knows nothing about your team and probably knows nothing about anything in general, feel free to enjoy my analysis of some draft trends and tropes that may or may not apply to the 2017 edition.

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Cleveland Browns	Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
2	San Francisco 49ers	Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
3	Chicago Bears	Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	Jonathan Allen, DE/DT, Alabama
5	Tennessee Titans (via Rams)	Mike Williams, WR, Clemson
6	New York Jets	Tim Williams, DE/OLB, Alabama
7	Los Angeles Chargers	Jamal Adams, S, LSU
8	Carolina Panthers	Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
9	Cincinnati Bengals	Reuben Foster, LB, Alabama
10	Buffalo Bills	Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
11	New Orleans Saints	Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford
12	Cleveland Browns (via Eagles)	DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame
13	Arizona Cardinals	Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama
14	*Philadelphia Eagles	Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan
15	*Indianapolis Colts	Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee
16	Baltimore Ravens	Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida
17	Washington	Jabrill Peppers, S/LB, Michigan
18	Tennessee Titans	Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	John Ross, WR, Washington
20	Denver Broncos	Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin
21	Detroit Lions	Montravius Adams, DE/DT, Auburn
22	Miami Dolphins	DeMarcus Walker, DE/DT, Florida State
23	New York Giants	Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State
24	Oakland Raiders	Malik McDowell, DE/DT, Michigan State
25	Houston Texans	O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama
26	Seattle Seahawks	Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama
27	Kansas City Chiefs	Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State
28	Dallas Cowboys	Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan
29	Green Bay Packers	Takkarist McKinley, OLB/DE, UCLA
30	New England Patriots	Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
31	Atlanta Falcons	Caleb Brantley, DT, Florida
32	Pittsburgh Steelers	Charles Harris, DE/OLB, Missouri

Quarterbacks Are Always Overdrafted

Let's take a look back at the quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2010.

Year	Pick	Player	Team	Status
Year	Pick	Player	Team	Status
Year	Pick	Player	Team	Status
Year	Pick	Player	Team	Status
Year	Pick	Player	Team	Status
Year	Pick	Player	Team	Status
Year	Pick	Player	Team	Status
2016	1	Jared Goff	Los Angeles Rams	Jury Still Out
2016	2	Carson Wentz	Philadelphia Eagles	Showed Promise in 2016
2016	26	Paxton Lynch	Denver Broncos	Jury Still Out
2015	1	Jameis Winston	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Star in the Making
2015	2	Marcus Mariota	Tennessee Titans	Star in the Making
2014	3	Blake Bortles	Jacksonville Jaguars	Regressed in 2016, Potential Bust
2014	22	Johnny Manziel	Cleveland Browns	Disaster
2014	32	Teddy Bridgewater	Minnesota Vikings	Jury Still Out
2013	16	EJ Manuel	Buffalo Bills	Bust
2012	1	Andrew Luck	Indianapolis Colts	Star, Superstar Potential
2012	2	Robert Griffin III	Washington	Injury Prone, Potential Bust
2012	8	Ryan Tannehill	Miami Dolphins	Solid Starter
2012	22	Brandon Weeden	Cleveland Browns	Bust
2011	1	Cam Newton	Carolina Panthers	Superstar
2011	8	Jake Locker	Tennessee Titans	Bust
2011	10	Blaine Gabbert	Jacksonville Jaguars	Bust
2011	12	Christian Ponder	Minnesota Vikings	Bust
2010	1	Sam Bradford	St. Louis Rams	Average Starter
2010	25	Tim Tebow	Denver Broncos	Annoying Cultural Phenomenon, Bust

Let's disregard the 2016 draft class because Jared Goff and Paxton Lynch barely played. Meanwhile, Carson Wentz showed flashes, though he remains a bit of a tough projection given how poorly his supporting cast at wide receiver played last season.

From 2010-15, 16 quarterbacks were selected in the first round. Seven of them were undisputed busts, two of them (Robert Griffin III and Blake Bortles) sure look like busts, Sam Bradford has never really been anything more than a decent starter, and he's now on the same team as a player in Teddy Bridgewater who looked like a decent game manager in his first two seasons before he missed the entirety of the 2016 season.

That leaves five players who are above-average quarterbacks. Cam Newton is an undisputed superstar, Andrew Luck has the potential to become one, and Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston both flashed their star potential in 2016. Ryan Tannehill is a very good quarterback who led the Miami Dolphins to the playoffs this past year, though he doesn't appear to have the potential to ever become a great quarterback.

You would have thought NFL teams would have learned from 2011, when Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder were all reaches and were all major busts. But teams will continue to reach for quarterbacks. It's tradition, like your family eating too much at Thanksgiving or Rob Schneider not being funny.

This year won't be the exception. You could make a pretty strong argument that none of the quarterbacks in this class are top-20 players. Mitch Trubisky is raw and was a one-year starter. Deshaun Watson is turnover-prone and was aided by an offense that largely hid many of his flaws. DeShone Kizer has obvious tools and upside but was incredibly inconsistent in 2016.

At least one of them will be a bust. All three of them might not make it. But will they all be top-15 picks?

Don't be surprised if it happens.

Running Backs Have Been Devalued 

Since 2010, only 10 running backs have been selected in the first round. Just four of them (Trent Richardson at No. 3 in 2012, Ezekiel Elliott at No. 4 in 2016, C.J. Spiller at No. 9 in 2010 and Todd Gurley at No. 10 in 2015) have been top-10 selections.

Among that group, just one has been an undisputed home run (Ezekiel). Richardson was a huge bust, Spiller was a decent player and the jury is still out on Gurley, though he seems likely to have a nice career.

The general thinking is this: 

• The shelf lives of three-down running backs who get 300 touches a season is shorter than other positions.
• The NFL, in general, has thus moved to a committee approach at the position. Running backs have become more specialized than they were in the past.
• In general, you can find solid options at the position after the first round, so using a high pick on the position often doesn't represent the best value.

This year, however, is a strong year for the position. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller projected six running backs to go in the first two rounds, marking Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey as potential first-round selections.

Amongst his selections, he didn't include Ohio State running back Curtis Samuel, a dangerous running and receiving threat who I wouldn't be surprised to see sneak into the second round. In other words, there is a lot of talent to be had at running back.

Fournette will likely make it three years in a row that a running back will be selected with a top-10 pick. He's too dynamic to slip too far down the board. Cook probably doesn't have top-10 talent, but he isn't far behind Fournette. Meanwhile, McCaffrey's versatility and ability to be a weapon as a receiver will make him an intriguing fit for teams that love to incorporate their running backs heavily in the passing game (i.e. the New England Patriots).

We may never see a running back selected No. 1 overall again, but the trend of entirely ignoring running backs in the first round—there were no first-round running back selections in 2013 and 2014—seems to be coming to a close. There is simply too much talent at the position this year.

All Positions Are Not Created Equally

Quarterback, wide receiver, left tackle, edge-rusher—either a 4-3 defensive end or 3-4 outside linebacker—and cornerback have generally been considered the five premier positions in football. They are also generally the positions that teams target early in the draft.

You have to go all the way back to 1995 to find the last time the top overall pick wasn't used on a quarterback, offensive tackle, defensive end or wideout. In that case, the Cincinnati Bengals regretted that decision, selecting running back Ki-Jana Carter No. 1 overall. Carter rushed for a whopping total of 1,144 yards in seven NFL seasons.

The Bengals passed on stud offensive tackle Tony Boselli and stud quarterback Steve McNair to select Carter. Whoops.

So will the trend of prioritizing certain positions continue? It will, for the most part. 

We've already talked about quarterbacks, but this is a loaded draft for pass-rushers. Myles Garrett out of Texas A&M likely will be the top overall pick. Jonathan Allen from Alabama—who can play defensive tackle and defensive end and generates pressure from either position—might be the second-best player in this class.

Tim Williams, Derek Barnett and Solomon Thomas could all be top-10 picks. Takkarist McKinley may not be far behind. This is the year for teams that struggle getting after the quarterback.

Offensive tackle and cornerback are more interesting. This is one of the weaker offensive tackle classes in recent memory. One of the interesting storylines will be whether teams still reach on the position—which I think will happen at quarterback—or whether offensive tackles will fall down the board. You can make a pretty good argument that there isn't a tackle worth a top-10 pick in this draft.

On the other hand, protecting your franchise quarterback is always a priority.

Cornerback is much deeper than offensive tackle, though there doesn't appear to be a Jalen Ramsey in this class. In other words, there isn't an elite option who clearly stands above his peers. However, there are a ton of players who would probably be considered in the class of players just below a Ramsey type, and at least four cornerbacks seem assured of going in the first round.

Don't sleep on guys like Adoree' Jackson, Jalen Tabor and Sidney Jones, either. All three could easily sneak into the first round. Miller had eight corners being selected in the first two rounds and four players (Quincy Wilson, Marshon Lattimore, Gareon Conley and Tabor) in the first round of his mock draft.

Finally, wide receiver isn't a terribly deep group, but I'd be surprised if Mike Williams wasn't a top-10 pick and if Corey Davis didn't come off the board in the first 20 picks of the first round. John Ross is a little more of a question mark, but a team in need of playmakers in the passing game could snatch him up in the first round as well.

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