
NFL Divisional Round 2017: Everything You Need to Know for Saturday
After a disappointing opening weekend of playoff football—the average margin of victory was 19 points—the NFL and its fans are ready for a decent matchup or two.
One might be on its way Saturday when the Atlanta Falcons host the Seattle Seahawks. The day's other game pitting the Houston Texans against the New England Patriots appears like it will be far more lopsided.
Wild Card Weekend's top storyline was injuries at the game's most important position, but three of the league's best quarterbacks will be on display Saturday. MVP candidates Matt Ryan and Tom Brady will take the field for the first time during the playoffs, and their presence compared to the likes of Connor Cook and Matt Moore will be like upgrading from a Ford Fiesta to a Ferrari.
Four teams will advance to the conference championships and be one step away from an appearance in Super Bowl LI.
Before that happens, however, the divisional round must ensue, and Bleacher Report has Saturday's games covered.
The Games
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What: Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
When: 4:35 p.m. ET
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta
Network: Fox
Expected Weather: Dome
Line (per OddsShark): Falcons (-5)
There's no place like dome. After a playoff weekend defined by cold weather, the Seahawks' meeting with the Falcons will be the first played in a controlled atmosphere.
As good as the Falcons were at points during the regular season, the Georgia Dome didn't provide a huge advantage. In fact, Atlanta finished 5-3 overall at its friendly confines.
When these teams met Oct. 16, Seattle escaped with a 26-24 victory after kicker Steven Hauschka delivered a 44-yard field goal with two minutes remaining.
The Falcons offense didn't play as well as it normally does, and the Seahawks defense was a big reason why. But Seattle should expect Atlanta to be more difficult to stop this time. The Falcons have averaged 36.7 points per game since their Week 11 bye.
Few things are better than seeing one of the league's best offenses face a top-notch defense.
What: Houston Texans at New England Patriots
When: 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Network: CBS
Expected Weather: 30 degrees, mostly cloudy
Line (per OddsShark): Patriots (-15)
The Texans have been given little chance to win Saturday's meeting with the top-seeded Patriots. This makes the matchup more interesting because Houston has nothing to lose.
If the Patriots dominate, it's expected, and the Texans can go home as AFC South champions with an opening-round playoff victory.
If Houston achieves the improbable, it'll be one of the most shocking playoff upsets in NFL history, and the team will be immortalized.
Of course, the Texans' prospects of beating an impressive New England squad aren't the same as those of Joe Namath's New York Jets before their Super Bowl III victory, but they have an opportunity to show defense still matters and quarterback Brock Osweiler isn't a free-agent bust.
Still, the Tom Brady-led Patriots are the better team, and they seem like a lock to make another AFC Championship Game.
Injury Report
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Seattle Seahawks
- Running back C.J. Prosise (shoulder): questionable
The Seattle defense is famous for its secondary, yet its deep defensive plays a large role in its success. Tony McDaniel is the best run defender among the team's defensive tackles, and he cleared the concussion protocol at the end of the week. If McDaniel experiences any symptoms this weekend, John Jenkins, whom the franchise acquired in November, should have his role increase.
Atlanta Falcons
- None
Everything is coming together at the right time for the Falcons. A week off during an opening-round playoff bye allowed Atlanta to get healthy, as all the players who appeared on the Week 17 injury report practiced this week.
Houston Texans
- Outside linebacker John Simon (chest): questionable
- Safety Quintin Demps (hamstring): questionable
The Texans aren't as fortunate as the other teams preparing for a contest Saturday. After a physical game with the Oakland Raiders, multiple key contributors didn't practice at some point during the week. Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus are the most important to the team's success.
J.J. Watt is already out of the lineup and on injured reserve with a back injury, so Clowney's and Mercilus' presences off the edge will be vital for Houston to have any chance of knocking off New England.
New England Patriots
- Wide receiver Malcolm Mitchell (knee): questionable
A couple of unexpected situations crept up for the Patriots this week, yet neither should have a drastic effect on the team's game plan. LeGarrette Blount fell ill, and defensive tackle Alan Branch enjoyed the birth of his son, according to the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe. Both should be on the field against the Texans.
Biggest Questions
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Can the Seahawks' Legion of Boom defense slow the Falcons' explosive offense?
O Earl Thomas, Earl Thomas, wherefore art thou Earl Thomas?
The All-Pro safety won't be there if the Seahawks beckon because he's on injured reserve with a broken left tibia he suffered during a Week 13 contest against the Carolina Panthers.
As such, this isn't the same defense the Falcons faced in Week 6. Sure, most of the pieces are there from Seattle's 26-24 victory, but Thomas was the unit's security blanket along the back line. The safety recorded a season-high three pass deflections against Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan.
Since taking over for Thomas, Steven Terrell has played relatively well. He doesn't provide the same type of range and reliability, though.
The Falcons finished the regular season as the league's second-ranked offense with an average of 415.8 yards per game. The Seahawks held them to 362 yards at CenturyLink Field in October.
A similar effort will be necessary if Seattle is to play in its third conference championship in four years.
Will the Falcons be able to slow Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls?
When the Seattle offense needed a spark, running back Thomas Rawls delivered.
For six seasons, Beast Mode ran roughshod over the Seahawks' opponents. The team could always rely on Marshawn Lynch to ignite it. After his retirement, though, Seattle struggled to reestablish its ground game, and the offense finished 25th in rushing yards.
During the opening round of the playoffs, though, Rawls rumbled for 161 yards on 27 carries and broke Lynch's single-game playoff record.
The Falcons finished seventh-worst by surrendering 4.5 yards per carry during the regular season.
The Atlanta defensive front isn't the biggest or most physical group, but the Seattle offensive line is inconsistent at best and shoddy at worst. The Falcons' ability to disrupt the Seahawks' running game by penetrating gaps will allow the group to shut down Rawls before he even gets started.
This year isn't any different for Seattle's playoff opponents: Stop the run to slow the rest of the offense.
Can Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler repeat his Wild Card Weekend performance?
The Texans are at an inherent disadvantage each week because of their quarterback, though Brock Osweiler's performance in a 27-14 victory over the Raiders last weekend provided some hope.
No one expects the young signal-caller to challenge the Patriots' Tom Brady when the two meet Saturday. It's a ridiculous notion to even consider. Houston head coach Bill O'Brien, however, should expect his quarterback to play efficient, mistake-free football.
Osweiler's stats against Oakland on Sunday weren't gaudy, but he played as well as he did all season.
The 26-year-old completed 56 percent of his passes for 168 yards and a touchdown. Some would argue those numbers aren't good. But Osweiler's first-half effort was exceptional as the Texans established a 20-7 lead. O'Brien decided a conservative second-half game plan was the team's best route to victory, and he proved to be right.
Why?
Houston also owns the league's best defense. A year ago, when Osweiler played for the Denver Broncos, the organization didn't ask much of its quarterbacks because a stellar defense could make up the difference.
The Texans are expected to take the same approach against Brady and the Patriots' potent offense.
Will New England overlook an outclassed Houston squad?
The Patriots' Bill Belichick is the league's most meticulous head coach. The way he prepares his team accounts for his success and longevity in a high-pressure profession.
There's still a tendency for even the most prepared teams to overlook inferior opponents, though.
For example, Belichick began to plan for the Texans prior to last weekend because, in his view, the Miami Dolphins-Pittsburgh Steelers contest was never in question.
New England is the clear-cut favorite, but Houston owns the league's No. 1 defense. The combination of Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus can get after Brady and perhaps rattle the future Hall of Fame quarterback.
Even if the Patriots believe they're the best team in the league—and their 14-2 regular-season record indicates they are—they must be prepared for Houston's defense to be as good as advertised.
Seahawks at Falcons Breakdown
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The Falcons and Seahawks are familiar foes.
But two major differences exist between the teams' upcoming meeting and their last.
First, the game will be played at the Georgia Dome instead of CenturyLink Field. Home-field advantage is always important, and Atlanta won't have to deal with Seattle's raucous crowd or a cross-country flight. The trip may be even more difficult for the Seahawks since their bodies will need to adjust to Eastern Time. To its credit, Pete Carroll's squad was 2-1 this season when playing on the East Coast—including a 31-24 victory over the 14-2 Patriots.
Before the teams' previous contest, Seattle had two weeks to prepare. This time, the tables are turned, as Dan Quinn's team had a chance to get healthy and measure its potential opponents during its bye week.
What the Seahawks may not be able to handle has nothing to do with the Falcons' explosive offense. Instead, Seattle's much-maligned offensive line will face the game's premier pass-rusher. Establishing the run will be crucial for the visitors so Vic Beasley can't pin his ears back and get after quarterback Russell Wilson.
According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson faced pressure on 41.6 of his passes—the third-highest rate among quarterbacks who took 50 percent of their team's dropbacks. Beasley, meanwhile, led the NFL with 15.5 sacks.
Atlanta will score points even against Seattle's vaunted defense. The difference in the game will be whether the Seahawks can protect Wilson from Beasley.
Seattle barely managed a victory the last time these two teams met; everything now favors the Falcons.
Falcons 24, Seahawks 21
For B/R's expert consensus divisional-round playoff picks, click here.
Texans at Patriots Breakdown
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What could possibly go wrong for the Patriots?
They're massive favorites against the Texans, and the last time New England hosted Houston, third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett and Co. won 27-0. This time, the Texans will face the peerless Tom Brady.
But this is why games are played on the field instead of a piece of paper.
Clearly, New England holds the advantage in most areas. But Houston still has a chance, albeit a slim one, to upset the AFC's top seed.
It starts with the league's top-ranked defense.
Last year, the Broncos made Brady uncomfortable in the pocket when their defense accumulated 25 hurries, per Pro Football Focus. The Texans have the talent along their defensive front to do the same.
In order for the Houston defense to apply pressure on a consistent basis, the unit must slow running back LeGarrette Blount. This is something the group didn't achieve in the first meeting.
Blount carried the ball 24 times for 105 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The 250-pound back sealed the game with a 41-yard scamper to close the scoring early in the fourth quarter.
What makes the Patriots so dangerous on offense, though, are the numerous weapons that can take over at any instant. Brady, Blount, Martellus Bennett, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Dion Lewis, James White and Malcolm Mitchell are all capable of burning the Texans at a moment's notice.
Defensively, New England isn't the league's most talented group, but head coach Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will force Houston quarterback Brock Osweiler to beat them. The 26-year-old played well in the Wild Card Round against the Raiders and helped the Broncos beat the Patriots in overtime during the regular season last year. Can he do it again? Based on his performances this regular season, it seems unlikely.
If Osweiler doesn't play well, this game could escalate into a blowout.
Patriots 31, Texans 13
For B/R's expert consensus divisional-round playoff picks, click here.
What Happens Next Weekend?
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If the Seahawks win...
They would travel to Bid D with a win Sunday by the Dallas Cowboys. Seattle played Dallas once each in 2014 and 2015 and split those contests with a combined differential of only six points. If the Green Bay Packers upend the young and talented Cowboys, a rematch of the 2014 NFC Championship Game would ensue in Seattle.
If the Falcons win...
They'd be in position to host the NFC Championship Game if Aaron Rodgers and the Packers upset the Cowboys. Otherwise, the Falcons would fly to Dallas and the NFC's two best teams would go head-to-head to earn a spot in Super Bowl LI.
If the Texans win...
It would be a miracle. OK, that's a little mean, but the Patriots are considered the favorites to capture another AFC crown and return to the game's biggest stage. Houston, however, can't be counted out. If Bill O'Brien's squad shocks the NFL world, it would visit either the Steelers or Kansas City Chiefs depending on Sunday's outcome.
If the Patriots win...
It's expected; they'd advance to their sixth straight AFC Championship Game. New England is the AFC's No. 1 seed and would host either Pittsburgh or Kansas City with a chance to claim the Lamar Hunt Trophy.
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