
Super Bowl 2017: Latest Vegas Odds for Each Favorite Entering Divisional Round
One of the most uncompetitive sets of games in Wild Card Weekend history came to a close Sunday night.
The closest deficit of the four matchups was 13 points. That hasn't happened during Wild Card Weekend since 1995, when no matchup was closer than 15 points.
Aside from one game, the divisional round should be much closer, as the Atlanta Falcons (4.5-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks), Kansas City Chiefs (1.5-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers) and Dallas Cowboys (four-point favorites over the Green Bay Packers) have only small edges. The New England Patriots vs. the Houston Texans is the lone exception, with the Patriots listed as 16-point favorites.
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Let's focus on the divisional-round favorites and dissect their Super Bowl roads heading into the games.
| Team | Conference Championship Odds | Super Bowl Odds |
| AFC | ||
| 1. New England Patriots | -180 | +165 |
| 2. Kansas City Chiefs | +400 | +850 |
| 3. Pittsburgh Steelers | +350 | +650 |
| 4. Houston Texans | +2500 | +5000 |
| NFC | ||
| 1. Dallas Cowboys | +150 | +450 |
| 2. Atlanta Falcons | +250 | +700 |
| 3. Seattle Seahawks | +450 | +1200 |
| 4. Green Bay Packers | +275 | +700 |
Moneyline explanation: A bettor must stake $180 on New England to win the AFC Championship in order to win $100; they must bet $100 on New England to win the Super Bowl in order to win $165.
New England Patriots: +165 Super Bowl Odds

The Patriots have the easiest road to the Super Bowl, and it's not even close.
The playoff field is reminiscent of the "One of These Things" song from Sesame Street, as Houston is by far the weakest team remaining in the mix, with seven strong playoff teams otherwise.
In fact, Football Outsiders only ranked them 29th in the NFL in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).
It's difficult to envision Houston, with a minus-49 point differential during the regular season, going on the road and staying competitive with the Patriots, who finished at plus-191.
It's even harder to see the Texans taking down the Pats given they lost to them 27-0 earlier in the year—with quarterback Tom Brady off the field through suspension.
Because the Pats have a much easier divisional-round matchup than the rest of the playoff field this season, and because New England is the best team remaining, they have the best shot and odds to win Super Bowl LI.
Don't bet good money on any other team this year.
Kansas City Chiefs: +850 Super Bowl Odds

The Patriots may be the best team remaining in the playoffs, but the Chiefs are the most dangerous.
How so? Because they have players who can change a game in one play, either on offense, defense or special teams. They can also beat you with a series of plays, like one of coach Andy Reid's classic time-consuming drives downfield that he's been famous for since his days coaching the Philadelphia Eagles.
Former head coach and Monday Night Football play-by-play man Jon Gruden had this to say to Terez Paylor of the Kansas City Star:
"They can beat ya defensively with opportunistic defense—they can take the ball away. They can humiliate you in the kicking game. I mean, they can bury ya. And Andy Reid can conduct some of the most exotic, time-consuming drives in football. They can hold the ball for six, seven minutes on a possession.
Bottom line is, this is a very good team because they can function and beat ya in all three areas.
"
Speaking of those players who can change a game on a dime, Human Swiss Army knife Tyreek Hill has scored six receiving touchdowns, two punt-return touchdowns, one kickoff-return touchdown and three rushing touchdowns this season.
He has a knack for being the difference-maker in close wins, most notably against the Denver Broncos (three touchdowns in a 30-27 Sunday Night Football victory) and Oakland Raiders (two touchdowns in a 21-13 Thursday Night Football win).
On defense, safety Eric Berry basically won two games by himself against the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta this year.
With the Chiefs down 17-6 against Carolina in the fourth quarter and showing no signs of life, Berry took advantage of a bad cross-field throw from quarterback Cam Newton and returned an interception 42 yards for a touchdown. Kansas City won 20-17.
In a homecoming game against Atlanta, Berry scored on a pick-six and a pick-two, putting up the former with just 37 seconds remaining in the first half and the latter with 4:32 left in the game to turn a 28-27 deficit into a 29-28 Chiefs lead.
The Chiefs simply can't be underestimated this postseason.
Dallas Cowboys: +450 Super Bowl Odds

Dallas' kryptonite is out of the playoff field in the form of the New York Giants. Suddenly, the odds look a lot better for the Cowboys to make their first Super Bowl appearance in 21 years.
Not counting their loss in Week 17 to Philadelphia, when they rested numerous starters, the Cowboys went 13-2 this year, with the two being against New York.
The Cowboys can conceivably stay in Texas for the remainder of the postseason, as they have homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs and would only have to travel to Houston if they make the Super Bowl.
As far as their road to the Super Bowl goes, Dallas has already faced its divisional-round opponent once. Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News dropped this fact about the Cowboys' 30-16 win at Green Bay:
The Cowboys get to play Green Bay at home with a wide receiver in Dez Bryant looking for revenge against the Packers after the infamous "no-catch" call during these teams' divisional-round matchup two seasons ago.
Dallas also has another big advantage in that it can keep high-powered offenses off the field with its stellar rushing attack.
Football Outsiders ranked Dallas second in the NFL in time of possession (31:28), and at home, behind running back Ezekiel Elliott and a stellar offensive line, it could keep superstar quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and either Matt Ryan or Russell Wilson on the sidelines for long stretches of time.
Give the edge to Dallas to emerge from the NFC, although beating New England will be a tall order.
Atlanta Falcons: +700 Odds

Quarterback Matt Ryan put up this stat line this season: 38 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 4,944 passing yards, 69.9 completion percentage and a 117.1 passer rating.
That, coupled with leading the Falcons to an 11-5 record and a first-round bye, will probably land him the MVP award.
Former NFL head coach Mike Nolan had this to say to Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com about Ryan's great year:
"When people were on him last year, I said, 'I know Matt is a damn good quarterback,' and I’ll never fudge on that because I know he is. He’s a great at-the-line-of-scrimmage quarterback. And when I talk about at-the-line guys, I’m talking about [Tom] Brady. I’m talking about [Aaron] Rodgers, [Drew] Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, [Andrew] Luck. All of the really good ones, they get to go to the line of scrimmage and look it over and utilize their brain and put you in the best play.
That, I think, is one of the biggest adjustments the Falcons did from a year ago. That’s his element. That’s what makes him such a good player. And this year, that’s exactly what he was doing.
"
Ryan's turnaround between this year and last year is night and day. He could easily lead the Falcons to the Super Bowl.
Although the Seattle Seahawks are a tough team and impressed in a 26-6 win over the Detroit Lions on Saturday, they are not a good road outift, going 3-4-1 this year (compared to 7-1 at home).
Now they are being asked to fly across the country to play against a high-powered offense looking for revenge—Atlanta lost 26-24 to Seattle in CenturyLink Field in October—in a loud Georgia Dome without All-Pro safety Earl Thomas, who broke his leg against Carolina on December 4.
If Atlanta gets by Seattle, its next game would be a toss-up, either against Dallas in Jerry's World or a rematch of one of the best games of the regular season (a last-minute 33-32 win over Green Bay) against the Packers.
Still, it wouldn't be surprising to see Atlanta in the Super Bowl, although defeating Brady and the Patriots, a group of men on a mission after the Deflategate saga, is going to be difficult for any team.
All odds per Odds Shark.
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