Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

After clinching the AFC South last weekend with a third straight outright victory, the Houston Texans aim to wrap up the regular season on a winning note when they visit the battered Tennessee Titans in Week 17.

While the 9-6 Texans' current tear has lifted them into the postseason for a second straight year, they have struggled to produce at the sportsbooks, covering just once in their past six games.

The 8-7 Titans will be without star quarterback Marcus Mariota against Houston. Mariota suffered a season-ending leg injury in last week's 38-17 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars as 4.5-point road chalk, which snuffed out Tennessee's slender playoff hopes.

Point spread: The Titans opened as three-point favorites; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.5-15.6 Titans (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans have rewarded bettors in recent dates as road underdogs. Houston has gone 2-1 straight up and against the spread in its past three such outings, including a season-saving 22-17 win in Indianapolis as 6.5-point underdogs three weeks ago.

Houston's top-ranked defense has been dominant in its past two outings, holding opponents to an average of just 222 total yards in wins over the Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Texans will test Tennessee's third-ranked ground game after holding opposing rushers to 67 or fewer yards in three of their past five games.

Tennessee has struggled mightily when favored, going 2-8-1 ATS over its past 11 contests as betting chalk.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

The Titans have turned in stout performances in recent home dates, winning and covering in three straight for the first time since early in the 2013 NFL season. Tennessee has averaged 32 points per game in those contests and allowed just one total touchdown run.

While the Texans rose to the occasion in their recent visit to Indianapolis, they have been an overall betting disappointment on the road, going 2-5 SU and ATS this season. Houston has also been held to 13 or fewer points in four road games this season.

The Texans are a dismal 1-6 SU in their past seven road meetings against teams with winning records.

Smart pick

The Texans are 5-0 SU in their past five games against Tennessee and unbeaten ATS in their past six meetings.

However, Houston is locked in as the No. 4 seed in the AFC and could provide opportunity to the Titans by resting key regulars. Look for the Titans to close out their campaign with a SU and ATS win on the NFL point spreads over the rival Texans.

Betting trends

The Texans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against the Titans.

The total has gone over in four of the Texans' last five games against the Titans.

The Titans are 7-22 SU and 6-21-2 ATS in their last 29 games at home.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.