Week 16 NFL Picks: Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions for Sunday's Schedule

Happy holidays, football fans! Because of the week's special schedule, we've already enjoyed the bulk of the weekend's action. However, the NFL has seen fit to give us a couple of quality matchups on Christmas.

At 4:30 p.m. ET, we'll get the latest edition of the league's most physical rivalry, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. This game could decide who wins the AFC North, as the Steelers hold a one-game lead with two games remaining. 

At 8:30 p.m. ET, we'll get the year's second matchup between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. Denver will battle to keep its playoff hopes intact, while the Chiefs will try to stay alive in the AFC West race.

Let's take a look at both games, the odds at OddsShark.com, our predictions and some interesting prop bets.

An NFL Christmas

Time (ET)	Away Team	Home Team	Line	Prediction
4:30 p.m.	Baltimore Ravens	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -6	26-22 PIT
8:30 p.m.	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	KC -3	23-19 KC

Picks and Props

Broncos and Chiefs Over 37

Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images

There are a couple of logical reasons for the relatively low over-under in the Broncos vs. Chiefs matchup. They are Denver's defense and Denver's offense.

The Broncos are ranked first in overall defense, allowing an average of just 18.4 points per game. Denver's offense, meanwhile, seems to be taking steps backward in recent weeks.

Denver has averaged 21.4 points per game on the season. However, the offense has averaged just 11 points per game over the past three weeks. Unless the Broncos find a spark of some sort, they could again struggle against the Chiefs defense, which is rated ninth overall.

Broncos defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is fine with having a low-scoring offense.

“The way I’ve always approached it is, our defense has to play better than the other team’s defense. It’s not about our offense,” Phillips explained, per Nicki Jhabvala of the Denver Post.

The thing is, though, that these two division rivals know each other quite well. Even with two quality defenses on the field, exceeding 37 total points is realistic here.

Remember that the last time these two teams met on Nov. 28, they combined for 57 total points. While these two might not combine for that many this week (nine of those points came in overtime last time), they will hit the 37-point mark.

Ben Roethlisberger Under 282.5 Passing Yards

One enticing prop at OddsChecker.com involves Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and an over-under of 282.5 yards passing.

When the Steelers and Ravens get together, it's generally a dogfight. Points and yards can be tough to come by. While we expect Roethlisberger to perform better than he did last time he faced the Ravens—264 yards, one touchdown, one interception on Nov. 6—we're not so sure he'll surpass the yardage total.

The Ravens are rated sixth in overall defense and allow an average of just 230.5 yards per game through the air.

While the Ravens have been solid against the run for most of the season (ranked second with 82.1 yards per game allowed), the Philadelphia Eagles were able to gash them for 169 yards rushing a week ago.

We'd expect the Steelers to test the Ravens run defense early and often with Pro Bowl back Le'Veon Bell. This could limit Roethlisberger's opportunities to produce yards. Our guess is that Big Ben throws for between 250 and 275 yards.

Trevor Siemian Over 246.5 Passing Yards

Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

Another prop over at OddsChecker.com involves Broncos signal-caller Trevor Siemian and an over-under of 246.5 yards passing.

We mentioned above that Denver's strong defense and shaky offense have the potential to limit scoring in this game. As we also mentioned, though, these opponents know each other and actually combined for quite a bit of offense the last time they met.

Siemian passed for an impressive 368 yards and three touchdowns in that game. That's more than 100 yards more than this week's proposed over-under.

Here's something else to consider: Siemian has thrown for more than 250 yards in each of his past six starts. This is partially due to the fact the Broncos possess the 28th-ranked running game.

If Denver is going to move the ball against the Chiefs, it will likely have to do it through the air. Our guess is that Siemian once again tops the 250-yard mark.

Spencer Ware Over 77.5 Yards Rushing

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

If the Chiefs are going to move the ball against Denver's defense, they're probably going to want to do it on the ground. While the Broncos are one of the top defensive teams in the league, they have struggled against the run at times.

On average, the Broncos allow 127.9 yards rushing per game. Only three teams allow more.

This is why we like Chiefs running back Spencer Ware to surpass the over-under of 77.5 yards at OddsChecker.com.

This could be a close one for Ware, who hasn't surpassed the 77-yard mark since Week 7. However, he can get the job done at home in a big game against a suspect run defense—especially if the Chiefs can race out to an early lead.

Rankings courtesy of Pro Football Focus.