NFL1000: Will Dak Prescott's Regression Force the Cowboys to Return to Romo?

Few people expected Dak Prescott to happen.

The fourth-round pick out of Mississippi State was supposed to be Tony Romo's backup for the Dallas Cowboys, but Romo's back injury put Prescott in the spotlight as the 2016 season began. He handled the quarterback position about as well as any rookie could—especially through the first 11 weeks of the season.

In Dallas' first 10 games, Prescott completed 214 of 316 passes (67.7 percent) for 2,640 yards and 17 touchdowns with two interceptions. Prescott was the ideal quarterback for the Cowboys offense, with his play-action acumen and mobility; he added an element of read-option trickery that made the Dallas attack even tougher to stop than it would have been otherwise.

Then, over the last three games, Prescott hit the seemingly inevitable rookie wall. Sunday's 10-7 loss to the New York Giants, only the second defeat of the Cowboys' season, was the third contest in a pattern of regression for Prescott. In those three games, he has completed 46 of 79 passes for 499 yards and three touchdowns with two picks—both of which came against the Giants.

Accuracy	Arm	Pressure/Run	Decisions	Position	Overall
14/25	18/25	11/20	11/20	10/10	64/100

With Romo off injured reserve and ready to play, there's a new weight to the argument that the veteran should replace the rookie. The team's momentum with Prescott was the best argument against such a move; now, there's a claim to be made that Romo's return might not only right the Dallas passing game but also take some pressure off Prescott.

On Tuesday, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones told 105.3 The Fan in Dallas that Prescott will be the starter until further notice, alluding to Supreme Court justice Potter Stewart's 1964 ruling on pornography along the way.

"I don't have a definition for it, but you'll know it when you see it," Jones said (h/t ESPN.com). "It's kind of like [the] definition I heard one time of another issue trying to define a negative topic, and they said, 'I don't know how to say it, but it's just something that when you see it, you know it's there.' We'll see it."

Head coach Jason Garrett was more definitive.

"You can make it as simple or as complex as you want to make it," Garrett said Monday. "It's pretty simple for us: Dak's going to play quarterback as we go forward."

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

But is that the right move? The Cowboys have pole position in the NFC at 11-2. They're two games ahead of the 9-4 Giants and Detroit Lions in the race for home-field advantage, but things don't get easier down the road: Dallas will face the surprising Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles to finish the regular season.

If Prescott plays over a fully healthy Romo and continues to struggle, that would be problematic at best. So I wanted to see what the tape told me about Prescott's recent play.

The first thing that's important to recognize is in Dallas' last two games, Prescott has faced two of the league's better defenses in Minnesota and New York. That's not an excuse, nor does it imply Prescott can't handle the league's best.

On Nov. 20, he carved up the Baltimore Ravens' outstanding defense to the tune of 301 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. What I saw on tape was a young quarterback reliant on great blocking, a stellar run game, play-action passes, the efforts of his receivers and a relatively in-the-box game plan with specific (but clearly limited) alterations for improvisation. Against the Giants especially, there were issues with each of these elements.

The first interception came with 13:41 left in the first half. Dez Bryant was running a simple outside slant on the left side. Prescott brought his arm up to throw as Bryant made his cut and threw to the anticipated point just as Bryant fell to the turf. It led to an easy pick for cornerback Janoris Jenkins, but it was hardly Prescott's fault. Receivers slip, and bad things happen when they do.

The second interception came with 2:06 left in the third quarter. Watch how Prescott handled the Giants' pressure before he made the deep throw. Linebacker Devon Kennard (59) and defensive end Olivier Vernon (54) compressed the pocket by beating their blockers, and Prescott calmly stepped into the fray to zing the ball downfield, where it was intercepted by Leon Hall.

Prescott didn't run or balk; he did what veteran quarterbacks are expected to do. He threw the ball just before Kennard got his hand up to deflect it. Now, you could argue it was an overthrow. But you could also argue Bryant wasn't where he should have been. Receivers on deep posts have to time the throw, and it looked as if Bryant got turned around.

I wouldn't fault the quarterback to a dramatic degree on either of those plays. The second pick was about half Prescott's fault, and at worst, it was an arm punt on 3rd-and-15 from near midfield.

But Bryant's bad day wasn't over. With 2:25 left in the game, Dallas faced 3rd-and-6 at its own 28-yard line, trying to erase a three-point deficit. Prescott threw a perfectly timed slant to Bryant under blitz pressure, but Bryant lost the ball as Jenkins tackled him, and safety Landon Collins recovered.

Prescott's last four attempts of the game were pretty bad. He first missed tight end Jason Witten high to the right side and then had a wild miss over the middle to running back Lance Dunbar as he tried to roll to his left and make a difficult throw from a leverage position. On third down, his attempt to receiver Cole Beasley was batted down by Kennard, and a fourth-down prayer to Bryant was poorly timed, as Jenkins jumped the route and deflected the pass.

Those who prefer Romo would likely use those four incompletions as evidence that Prescott's inexperience gets in the way, and they would have a point.

There are also times when a quarterback and receiver have difficulty timing things up, and that appeared to be the case on an incompletion to Bryant with 11:05 left in the first quarter. Prescott moved to his left before he probably should have, reacting to pressure from linebacker Keenan Robinson (57). Bryant, lined up wide to the right, adjusted as best he could to his quarterback moving away from him but couldn't quite get to the ball.

For a right-handed quarterback, moving left and throwing on the run is a tough proposition because you're throwing without any momentum, and it takes a lot of reps to understand how much that will affect your velocity.

One thing the Cowboys could do to help Prescott is implement more play action, especially boot-action plays in which Prescott draws defenders in with a play fake, rolls to his right out of pressure, shortens the field with his rollout and more easily designates openings downfield.

Even during this three-game sputter, Prescott has been well above average when he uses play action: 12 completions in 20 attempts for 133 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. Those aren't huge numbers—in his first 10 games, Prescott completed 61 of 78 passes for 852 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions when he used play action—but both of his picks against the Giants came without play action, and his one touchdown came on a boot-action look.

Prescott took the snap and faked a pitch to running back Ezekiel Elliott. This caused New York's entire defense to lean to Elliott's side.

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And it allowed Prescott to roll right and see receiver Terrance Williams, who was running a deep over route. Because the Giants defense bit so hard on the fake, Williams was as open as he will ever be.

As to the question of whether the Cowboys should go to Romo now, I'm not ready to go there yet. I wrote in early November that the best course of action was to stick with the rookie and let him learn. Now, with the rushing attack a bit less dominant and with a few more defenders getting through that vaunted offensive line, it's something Romo might handle with more aplomb. If Prescott struggles against the Buccaneers on Sunday—and especially if Dallas drops its second straight game—then it makes more sense to make the change.

But right now, Prescott has earned the benefit of the doubt and should be allowed to show just how good he can be at working through the first real crossroads of his NFL career.

All advanced stats courtesy of Pro Football Focus.