NFL Predictions Week 14: Chris Simms' Weekly Projections

Mike Miello grew up around the block from coaching royalty. If you closed your eyes at halftime of a close game and listened to my high school head coach, his pep talks sounded vaguely like NFL Films cut-ups of his old neighbor, Vince Lombardi.

But my rah-rah speech intake hit its maximum at Ramapo High School in Franklin Lakes, NJ. Professional football coaches don't wait until halftime of the big game to deliver their momentum-swinging rallying cries.

Instead, us players got one rah-rah speech, shattered into small fragments and delivered by positional coaches over the course of the preceding week. By Sunday, you were either motivated or you weren't.

That's the lesson I take into the last month of the regular season. Coaches and assistants like Mike Miello are only with you for so long. If your team is fortunate enough to still be in contention this time of year, motivation should not be an issue.

Playoff Crashers

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Prediction: Indianapolis Colts

Groundhog Day comes early every year in the AFC South.

Come December, the same old stuff goes down. Three teams drop out of the running and climb up the draft board. And the Colts find a way to play on.

Indianapolis’ mentality has done a 180-degree turn since it last took the Houston Texans on. Fresh off a Monday night cakewalk in New York, Andrew Luck is playing with the poise and momentum we saw from his first three seasons; each one took his team deeper in the AFC playoff field.

Expect that trend to continue in Week 14. Luck’s offense is clicking, and it may not have to contend with stars like Jonathan Joseph (ribs) or Jadeveon Clowney (wrist). The defense just needs to wait for a Brock Osweiler mistake to seize control of the division.

Postseason Pushovers

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Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Excuse me if I sound like I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop down in Tampa.

I’ve been the newcomer at the “contending team's table,” though. I know what it's like to feel expectations mounting, specifically in that market. The fans, the national media—everyone starts paying attention.

This team is surging, but it hasn’t sold me. A loss this weekend—against Drew Brees (more on him later) and a defense that’s better than advertised—kicks Tampa Bay’s record down to 7-6. Not ideal.

With games against the Panthers, Cowboys and Saints (again) to close the season out, it’ll be tough for Jameis Winston and Co. to close out the season strong. Next year might be a more realistic target.

Sleeper Signal-Caller

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Prediction: Carson Wentz

Doug Pederson has nothing to lose by continuing to lose.

So Philadelphia's first-year coach can finally pry his playbook wide open. Where he might’ve hesitated to call a play when the Eagles were in the playoff hunt, he now needs to see his franchise quarterback operate in certain formations and situations.

That makes Carson Wentz exponentially tougher to defend. Wentz should attack more locations on the field (an issue for Philadelphia in Pederson’s first year). And the defense he’ll test (Washington Redskins) doesn’t have one spot that instills any fear in an offense. I like Wentz’s odds to break out.

Next Man Up!

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Prediction: Owa Odighizuwa

Say it with me for old time’s sake: Oh-wah-oh-diggy-zoo-wah.

He’s a mouthful for broadcasters and a handful for opposing blockers. And he just got cast in the role of a lifetime as Big Blue seeks to snap its playoff drought.

It can attempt to do so by deploying the UCLA product in Jason Pierre-Paul’s old spot. Like JPP, Odighizuwa isn’t a refined pass-rusher, but boy, can he run-stuff. Those tough traits are necessary to scare a team with a historically good offensive line.

Dallas will enter Week 14 with Olivier Vernon and Damon Harrison on the game plan. It’ll be up to Odighizuwa to beat Doug Free—the weak link of that line, if there is one—and force Ezekiel Elliott to pay attention.

Defense I'd Least Like to See

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Prediction: Green Bay Packers

Let’s list all the factors working against the Seahawks offense in Week 14.

For starters, they won't be at CenturyLink Field; Lambeau Field in December is a different kind of cold. They’ll play on grass, which figures to limit their overall team speed. And the defense they’ll line up against is one of the most complex in football.

Coordinator Dom Capers will throw eight different looks at the Seahawks—with healthier defensive backs at his disposal. Russell Wilson and Co. will need to decipher each one, all while matching Aaron Rodgers score for score. That’s not a recipe for breakout success.

America's Real Game of the Week

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Prediction: Broncos at Titans

Want a fun fact? Denver’s run defense is ranked 28th in football.

It’s even more fun if you’re Marcus Mariota. Tennessee can and will run the ball, meaning No. 8 won’t be on constant lookout from one Von Miller when he drops back. That’s a huge equalizer in a game between two tough teams.

Here’s another: Tennessee has had two weeks to prepare for Denver’s offense. Trevor Siemian should be back at the controls, but it’s no guarantee that he recaptures his form from Week 12’s Broncos-Chiefs slugfest. This game’s going to be closer than you think.

More Rushing Yards: Le’Veon Bell or LeSean McCoy?

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Prediction: Le’Veon Bell

Pittsburgh’s transformation to a power-running offense is complete. The Steelers run through Le’Veon Bell now.

Carry-wise, Bell’s three highest-volume games have come in the last three weeks. Don’t expect that trend to end any time soon; David DeCastro and Maurkice Pouncey form a one-two blocking punch that can spring Bell against any front, even one manned by Marcell Dareus.

Bell’s counterpart should find it much tougher to break loose in Week 14. Pittsburgh’s defense has freaky athletes at every level, from Stephon Tuitt up front to Ryan Shazier in the middle to Sean Davis on the back end. LeSean McCoy’s cutback lanes simply won’t be as plentiful.

More Passing Yards: Jameis Winston or Drew Brees?

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Prediction: Drew Brees

Let me get this out of the way first: Jameis Winston is a better quarterback right now than Drew Brees.

The stats might not flesh that out, but it’s true. Winston has packed three seasons' worth of growing and maturity into one. He bounces back from tough interceptions, isn’t afraid to check down to continue drives and rarely makes the wrong read on deeper stuff.

With that said, I’m going with Brees. Winston has to contend with a defense that looks much better on film, including two safeties (Kenny Vaccaro, Vonn Bell) who are straight-up dangerous. Tampa Bay’s defense has played better but doesn’t pose a true challenge for Brees.

More Total Yards: Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson?

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Prediction: Aaron Rodgers

Seattle’s game plan last week decided this prediction for me.

Coordinator Darrell Bevell went run-first, right at the big scary Panthers. I don’t think he’ll be afraid to try a similar approach when his team travels to Green Bay. Russell Wilson’s passing stats should suffer a little.

Where’s that option for Aaron Rodgers? This Packers offense thrived last week because—and I know it’s a shocker—No. 12 ran around and made eye-popping throws. The run game was still very absent.

Barring another hammy pull, I’m going with the quarterback who will run and pass over the one who will pass and hand it off.

More Receiving Yards: Odell Beckham Jr. or Dez Bryant

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Prediction: Odell Beckham Jr.

When the Cowboys offense takes the field, most eyes will be on their two big-name rookies.

Not mine. I’ll be scanning the perimeter to observe how the Giants defense handles Dez Bryant. I expect to see plenty of Janoris Jenkins and Eli Apple, with help over the top. That’s as good a plan as any opponent Dallas has seen.

Meanwhile, Dallas’ defense will play right into Odell Beckham Jr.’s hands. It almost always keeps two safeties D-E-E-P, coaxing quarterbacks to throw short of the sticks. That’s where OBJ has done most of his damage in recent weeks.

Under/Over: Tom Brady Passing Yards

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Line: 295

Prediction: Over

Make no mistake about it: The two competitors on Monday Night Football hate each other with a passion.

So I’m assuming Tom Brady will be top-secret, double-probation motivated to torch Baltimore—the team that allegedly put his Deflategate suspension in the works. We know what a pissed-off Brady can do to a defense, don’t we?

The Ravens don’t have to worry about Brady and Brady alone. Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan have emerged as the best deep threats No. 12 has had in years. They’ll either run by slow DBs and safeties or clear out space so Dion Lewis or James White can do damage underneath. Brady should go off big time.

Under/Over: David Johnson Total Yards

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Line: 190

Prediction: Under

I actually had to think about whether David Johnson could hit 190 total yards.

That alone should reveal my opinion of the kid. He’s a special talent who might eclipse 1,000 yards receiving this season, let alone rushing. He’s the best all-around back I’ve seen in some time.

He’ll find tons of targets from Carson Palmer in Week 14, but it’s the running game I’m worried about. Miami boasts Ndamukong Suh, Jordan Phillips and Cameron Wake—three big bodies that outmatch anything Arizona has up front. Behind them, there’s heat-seeking missile Kiko Alonso.

I think he’s in for 100 yards receiving and about 60 rushing. Amazing, but not 190-yards amazing.